No surge = no lock down. Open Up!
Governor Walz justified the initial Go To Your Room! order because the computer model predicted a surge of Covid cases coming to overwhelm the hospitals.
Doctors were scrambling to add ICU beds to handle the surge of cases expected to hit in Late March-Early April.
Estimates of the incubation period for Covid vary between 2-14 days with 5 days being the most common. If there was a pool of infected people in Early March getting read to overwhelm the hospitals in Late March – Early April, they’d have arrived by now (it’s April 26th as I write). They did not.
Governor Walz explained the need to extend his order until May: the surge had been delayed by his order and now would arrive in Late May-June-possibly July. The computer model predicted it with a 95% confidence level. If he rescinded the order now, the surge would come rushing forward, overwhelming the hospitals.
But the 14-day incubation period is unchanged. Where are all the infected people hiding? If they were sick enough in Early March to overwhelm us in Late March, why haven’t they surged already? Why July – what are they waiting for?
Ah, but just because people have no symptoms, doesn’t mean they can’t spread it to other people who Will develop symptoms. Mild cases, or asymptomatic patients, can cause a surge, as reported by a study of Chinese cases.
Yes, but for how long? A person gets the virus, an active case but no symptoms, she can spread it to others, but how long is she contagious? Doesn’t she eventually get over the virus, develop antibodies, become inactive, stop spreading? I can’t find a link answering that question but it’s critical to the next phase of the inquiry
The new excuse to extend the order is Testing and Tracking everyone so we can identify pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and quarantine them to prevent them from infecting other people who will surge into the hospitals, overwhelming them. Tracking is necessary before the state can re-open for business.
But people who are not contagious can’t spread the virus so tracking them won’t help stop the surge. Only a permanently infectious asymptomatic super spreader could have remained contagious since March and also remained hidden this long. Is that who we’re searching for? How many are there? Is it even possible? I suspect not, even though I can’t prove it, because otherwise authorities would explain that’s who they’re searching for – Covid Mary – be on the lookout.
As it stands, there is no surge and nobody to cause a surge: not here, not anywhere in America, not anywhere in the world. The virus is burning itself out, as they all do, until cold-and-flu seasons hits next Winter, as it always does.
There is no June surge coming. Somebody is lying. Could be the Governor, could be the U of M who developed the model, could be the World Health Organization, doesn’t matter. What matters is that the incubation period is 14 days. Anybody who had the virus before we went into lock-down, would have symptoms or developed the antibodies by now. Without a surge, there’s no justification for house arrest. Lift the order now.