When I started going my show in 2004, I accepted a couple of things as truisms:
- The Eighth Congressional District would be rock-solid Democrat territory forever.
- Mike Hatch, Mike Hatch’s progeny, or Mike Hatch’s brain in a jar would hold the Attorney General’s office though my great-grandchildren’s time
- Metro DFL voters would be arrogant, entitled, and generally awful.
The first really fell apart two years ago, with Trump capturing the district by two digits, and Pete Stauber looking to do the same.
And the second? Look out, but there’s a hurricane coming:
Republican Doug Wardlow has pulled ahead of Democrat U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison in the race for Minnesota attorney general, a Star Tribune/MPR News Minnesota Poll found.
Wardlow now leads by 7 percentage points, at 43 percent to 36 percent for Ellison, just a month after the Democrat held a 5-point edge in a September Minnesota Poll. The switch follows a turbulent period for the Ellison campaign, as he has navigated the political fallout of his former girlfriend’s allegation that he abused her in 2016, a claim he denies.
About one in six poll participants said they had not made up their minds about who to support.
And this has got to be bad news for Ellison:
Republicans appear to be falling in line behind Wardlow, but an increasing number of Democrats were undecided about who to back compared to September.
When you’re losing the sales on your own side (assuming the poll is accurate, and I never have and never will, but let’s run with it for now), you’ve got issues.
By the way – the crosstabs:
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 38 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 29 percent independents or other.
Seems…high to me.
Oh, the third bullet? Utterly unchanged. What, you thought it might?