In the aftermath of the 2010 election, I noted that the Star/Tribune “Minnesota” and Humphrey Institute polls were consistently, statistically, not only erroneous, but in a very suspiciously consistent way; in their polling, especially their election-eve polls, they always showed Republicans doing much much worse than they ended up doing – and this correlation was even stronger in races that ended up being close.
I also pointed out actual research indicating that a “bandwagon effect” had been identified in political polling; that negative polling about one’s candidate tended to make that candidate’s supporters stay home from the polls.
At the time, I noted that it was possible the media – operating in their capacity as Democrat operatives with bylines – might not be doing it on purpose to drive down Republican turnout in close elections – but if they were, it’s hard to think of what they’d be doing differently.
I needn’t have hedged; when I suspect the media of some pro-Democrat perfidy, I’m rarely disappointed.
John Podesta’s emails, hacked by Wikileaks, show that the Democrats, working through their network of sympathetic pundits, journalists and pollsters, have been doing exactly what I suspected they were; getting pollsters to jiggle the samping to underpoll Republicans and overpoll Democrats.
“Suspicion of Democrat perfidy is all but certainly proof, and is almost always correct”. It might be a Berg’s Law soon.
Juggling the sampling:
The fact that the pollsters do this is a frank admission on their part that their random sampling methodologies don’t work.
We screwed up, we picked too many republicans to sample.
So your saying you can’t get “the right” answer by randomly sampling? Isn’t the idea that you can what your whole industry hangs its credibility on?
I am reminded of the Clinton era scandal when the Census Bureau proposed to “correct” the actual enumeration called for by the Constitution with statistical sampling. Nice try, guys, but without a good idea of the actual distribution, good luck “correcting” it accurately and fairly.
This is why your team gets stuck with the likes of Trump. You pass on any old BS until you can’t separate the grifters and liars from the genuinely dumb.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/10/24/no-that-podestawikileaks-email-doesnt-prove-democrats-are-rigging-media-polls-n2236357
Keep playing your role as a useful idiot of the DemonRAT party there, Ricky. You gullible sheep have been getting your shoes pissed on by your elected heroes and believing it when they tell you it’s raining, for decades.
But, I guess it’s just fine with you when they call you minions naive and dumb, huh?
Rubes love a good conspiracy. The alt-right will soon have the TBN (Trump Breitbart News) Network for their viewing pleasure. Donald Trump, Roger Ailes and Steve Brannon (Breitbart) will have a build in demographic consisting of nationalistic, xenophobic, and conspiratorial viewers.
sHrillary commits treason, crimes and misdeameanors and it is all lies and untruth. And when smoking gun evidence is presented, it is nothing but a conspiracy. What a depraved world our libturd commenters inhabit. “zeist est meshuggah”.
. . . will have a build in demographic consisting of nationalistic, xenophobic, and conspiratorial viewers.
If I thought that description fit a large number of Americans, I couldn’t live here. I’d emigrate.
What is the built in demographic for MSNBC, anyhow? I knew one kid who had MSNBC on all of the time, with CC enabled so the hate scrolled across the bottom of the screen 24/7. This kid was white, high school graduate, but had worked only at low end, partially skilled jobs. Small engine mechanic, pizza chef, super market deli counter, that kind of stuff.
I think what happened is that when he hit age 35 he realized that he was screwed. He’d never make over $15/hour, never have decent health insurance, never be able to save for retirement.
But you could see that most of his problems were due to his own choices. When he was in his 20s he got a DUI on the mainland and ignored the summons. Fifteen years later he still couldn’t get a DL and had to have his girlfriend drive him everywhere. He smoked about an ounce of pakalolo a week. Any time he had extra money he would head down to the pawn shop and buy another guitar. He wasn’t a bad guitar player, but he didn’t have enough ambition to start or join a band.
I could have set him up with a decent job, but he would have needed a valid DL and pass a drug test.
He’d sit around his apartment in the evening, smoking dope, playing riffs on his guitar, with MSNBC on the little TV telling him that all of his problems were the fault of evil republicans.
The kid could vote. So what? He’s a citizen, he can vote however he wants for whatever reason he wants.
I call bullshit on the ABC poll that has Hillary +12. Other than that this looks like brexit. People are pissed and Donald Trump is the biggest fuck you we have had to the party elites of both sides since… well Jesse. All I know is that I will be collecting a fair amount of souls come November 9th no matter who wins. Assuming we know the winner by then. Lots of pollsters will be out of a job come that day too I believe. I think, personally, that Nate Silver is going to get destroyed because of his massive overconfidence in his complex formulas
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