Chanting Points Memo: The Rigger’s Dilemma

It’s my contention that the Star/Tribune “Minnesota” poll is, and has been for two and a half decades, less a “public opinion” poll and more an instrument of DFL propaganda.  I’ve supported that contention with a raft of circumstantial evidence; proof that the Minnesota Poll underestimates GOP turnout – especially in races that are perceived to be close; it showed Mark Dayton with an absurdly huge lead over Tom Emmer, and Al Franken with a four point lead over Norm Coleman, while guessing the Klobuchar/Kennedy race fairly accurately.

It’s my contention that this is to leverage the “Bandwagon Effect” – to discourage Republicans and conservatives from going to the poll.

But this year’s race presents a dilemma for the editors who – I’m being half-hyperbolic here [1] – plan the results of these polls.  On the one hand, you have the Voter ID initiative which is likely to win in a blowout.  To skew that poll enough to encourage Democrats and opponents of the amendment, the Strib would need to skew the poll to an absurd extent.  As in, assume conditions that are the same as in 1976, after Watergate.

On the other hand, you have a Senate race between Amy Klobuchar and Kurt BIlls that is widely perceived to be a pretty safe race for the incumbent.   Skewing the sample too far to the left would make the results look completely implausible.

The answer, if you’re the Strib?  You see it in this weeks’ Minnesota Polls; this is their old buddy Jim Klobuchar’s daughter we’re talking about here!  Of course they’ll do what it takes to make her re-election as epic as possible – why, everyone on Editor’s Row remembers Amy when she was just this tall, dagnabbit!

Beyond that – and more germane to the propaganda organ – they know that the voters the DFL needs are the “low-information” voters. The ones that rarely get past the headline, much less the lead – forget about looking at partisan breakdowns.  The ones that still believe the Strib is anything but DFL shills, or don’t care either way.

The Strib is showing a 57-28 lead for Klobuchar, with 15 percent either undecided or voting for someone else.  As we’ve been showing every day this week, this is based on a sample that includes 41% Democrat/28% GOP turnout.

Now, if we assume it’s more like 38/34 – which is more in line with Rasmussen’s figures, which have been traditionally vastly more accurate – and multiply the changes by the support each candidate gets within their party…

…well, that’s bad for Bills, if you believe the Strib.  While 90-odd percent of Dems say they’ll vote for A-Klo, the Strib claims only 2/3 of Republicans will vote for BIlls.  While the nomination battle was a bruising one in the GOP, and left a lot of bad blood, Republicans are much more suck-it-up-and-support-our-guy than that.  This strikes me as dubious – the “stink test” is crying “BS!” – but I’ve got no hard evidence to the contrary just yet.  Absent that, let’s run with the Strib’s numbers.

So if we subtract 3% from the Democrat split, multiplied by 90%, we get a net loss of 2.7% for Klobuchar, taking her down to 54.3%.

Adding 6 to Bills – times the 66% support in the party, naturally – leads to a four point rise, to 32.

54-32 still isn’t close.  But it’s not the 2:1 humiliation…

…that, I contend, the Strib wants Republicans to believe is coming, on top of all the other “bad news” they’ve brought us this week.

So what does all this mean?

More tomorrow.

[1] – However, I’ve learned that my half-hyperbolic jokes end up being accurate amazingly often.  And that’s not a good thing.

4 thoughts on “Chanting Points Memo: The Rigger’s Dilemma

  1. There’s a new city ordinance in Minneapolis. No conservative is allowed within 1000 feet of 425 Portland Avenue, the Strib office. Learn it.

  2. Got this e-mail from the Bills campaign a few hours ago, just thought I’d post it here Mitch.

    “Daddy’s Poll from Pravda on the Mississippi”

    It seems to me that the Star Tribune has turned into the propaganda arm of the Democrat Party.

    As a former journalist myself, it pains me personally to see the poll they released today on our race. Its irresponsible. Its deceptive. And they have taken media bias off a cliff with this one.

    Klobuchar by 29 points? There is something wrong here folks. Four other polls taken in the same timeframe are clustered from 14-21 down, the latest independent poll showing Klobuchar under 50%.

    But ironically, this tells me one thing: THEY ARE SCARED.

    There is only one reason to release such an outrageously skewed poll:

    Daddy’s newspaper needs to protect daddy’s little girl.

    The poll itself is D+14. To put it in context, in 2008 MN exiting polling was D+4. And in 2010, if you believed the polls then Dayton would have won by 7 points instead of in a recount – and Republicans would never have taken the MN House and Senate.

    To say this poll is biased is like saying our national debt is “kinda big.”

    The editors of the Star Tribune should be ashamed they print this as news. They were even afraid to quote me when I called them out on their ridiculous poll.

    Turns out Kurt isn’t running against Klobuchar alone.

    He is running against the Democrat’s public relations team: A/K/A the Star Tribune.

    But you can help us prove Daddy’s paper wrong:

    Please consider contributing $100, $50, $25, or $10 today. Together – we can fight media bias – and we can all take satisfaction once again as the Star Tribune is proved terribly wrong.

    Mike Osskopp

    Campaign Manager
    Kurt Bills for U.S. Senate

    Looks like Amy might be in trouble after all,

  3. “…the Star Tribune has turned into the propaganda arm of the Democrat Party”

    Has TURNED into the propaganda arm of the Democrat Party?

    Do you mean to suggest there was a time when it wasn’t?????

    If so, you’re delusional.

  4. I simply put up the quote, keep in mind his campaign manager is an ex-journalist, he’s still probably recovering.

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