As I wait for the latest “Minnesota Poll” to release its results for the Senate race, I’ve been turning the poll’s D+13 (their sample of respondents was 41% Democrat and 28% Republican) number around in my head.
After all, as the Strib tells us, “Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll for the Star Tribune, said those numbers are consistent with what he has seen over the years”.
But as we noted yesterday, the 2008 election – an epic Democrat win – was D+6 or so. The 2010 election had turnout of D+2, roughly, and turned out to be a GOP rout nationwide and in the MN Legislature.
So what about the worst election in the past 50 years for the GOP – the post-Watergate presidential election of 1976? Where the GOP got shredded in DC and in Saint Paul, sending the MNGOP running to their “Independent Republican” label?
I can’t find the partisan split – but does it seem unreasonable that in a year when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Fold by 12 points in Minnesota that the partisan split was, maybe in the neighborhood of D+12?
In other words, maybe somewhere around the D+13 number the Strib would have you believe today?