The poll was as drearily predictable as the annual stadium extortion-fest; notwithstanding last November’s electoral GOP legislative sweep, yet another Star/Tribune “Minnesota Poll” shows that the public is, mirabile dictu, entirely on board with the DFL agenda:
Sixty-three percent of respondents said they favor a blend of higher taxes and service reductions to tackle the state’s $5 billion projected deficit. Just 27 percent said they want state leaders to balance the budget solely through cuts.
The poll comes [with utter predictability – Ed.] as the Republican-led Legislature and the DFL governor head into the final week of a legislative session still dug in on their vastly different approaches to balancing the budget.
Dayton said the results show the public backs his position. Republicans said the results run counter to last fall’s election and what they are hearing from Minnesotans.
Predictable? Absolutely. Whether through editorial perfidy or lazy methodology, the Strib/”Minnesota” Poll has a long history of releasing “news” the DFL needs, exactly when it needs it. Especially when the issue is especially close-fought; the harder-fought the issue, the more absurdly lopsided the Strib poll, like the “Humphrey Institute” Poll run for many years by the U of M and MPR polls, seem to be. Right when the DFL needs it.
My theory; the DFL knows full well how the “bandwagon effect” in polling works for manipulating public perception; the Strib serves the DFL, wittingly or not.
And, sure enough, the poll’s methodology was as predictable as the Strib’s smug headline; emphasis is added by me:
Today’s Star Tribune Minnesota Poll findings are based on 565 landline and 241 cellphone interviews conducted May 2-5 with a representative sample of Minnesota adults. Interviews were conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International.
Results of a poll based on 806 interviews will vary by no more than 4.7 percentage points, plus or minus, from the overall population 95 times out of 100.
The self-identified party affiliation of the random sample is 33 percent Democrat, 23 percent Republican and 37 percent independent. The remaining 7 percent said they were members of another party, no party or declined to answer.
Results for the question about the best approach to solving the budget deficit — primarily through service reductions or through a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts — are based on interviews with 548 of the 806 respondents. The question was reasked in follow-up calls to all respondents because of a problem in the original wording of the question, and 548 of the respondents were reached. Results of a poll based on 548 interviews will vary by no more than 5.7 percentage points, plus or minus, from the overall population 95 times out of 100.
In other words, a group which self-reports its political leaning, whose geographical weighting and mix are unknown (remember the Humphrey Institute’s overweighting of Minneapolis respondents? Which they didn’t bother to report until after the election, even though their actual poll, which indicated a 12 point blowout for Mark Dayton, went out on schedule, right before the election?), and where the “independents” are given no known context, and which gives the DFL a completely unearned 50% head start, shows the public solidly behind Mark Dayton.
Just like it needed to.
I doubt the Twin Cities media will ever admit that the “Minnesota Poll” and the “Humphrey Institute” polls are, intentionally or not, pro-DFL propaganda. But it’s gotten to the point where the evidence doesn’t support any other conclusion.
The Star Tribune? They still print that thing? I thought the DFL was cutting back. And no, they will never admit they are a DFL propaganda tool. They don’t have to. Anyone with an ounce of objectivity can see it quite plainly.
Fake polling is just one of the ways the Star Tribune serves as a PR arm for the DFL, and consequently has dirt for a reputation.
It wasn’t too long ago that a poll needed to have at least 1000 respondents to be considered accurate (which is still a ridiculously small sample. I’d like to see 25000, if not more). Hell, if polling were limited to CD4 and CD5, Gov. Moonbeam would like downright Ivy League. We’d be close to having a Gov Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
I took a poll this weekend, too! It was at the Minneapolis Gun Club on Saturday.
I asked 25 people, 20 men and 5 women this question; What do you think of our Governor? Results: 18 said he is nuts, 3 couldn’t stop laughing long enough to answer and four could not come up with a printable answer.
How’s that for a “scientific” poll?
I think Mitch should start publishing the BossHoss poll. :^)
Now the wacky professor’s insistence that the Star Tribunes “Minnesota Poll” is totally accurate makes more sense:
http://www.startribune.com/local/yourvoices/Bill_Gleason.html
I know it’s the Strib, but I didn’t realize the bar was “set” by dropping it into a trough.
Do you think he convinced the Governor that he needed a Supercomputer for something/anything?
My guess is the 63% don’t pay any taxes to begin with. More pulp fiction from the dead tree media!
My wager in the dead-pool is that the Strib will be chapter 7 by the end of the upcoming election cycle.
“My wager in the dead-pool is that the Strib will be chapter 7 by the end of the upcoming election cycle.”
Aren’t they still in Chapter 11?
Q: What do a Star-Trib poll and the US Treasury have in common?
A: They’re printing more and it’s worth less.
The Grose Vulgar Tongue Dictionary is great for browsing.
“Admiral of the Blue” described a publican because he carried a blue flag over his mast (publicans traditionally wore blue aprons). A marriage between a whore and rogue was called a “Windsor wedding”.
I asked 25 people, 20 men and 5 women this question; What do you think of our Governor? Results: 18 said he is nuts, 3 couldn’t stop laughing long enough to answer and four could not come up with a printable answer.
What’s the MoE of this poll boss?
My guess is the 63% don’t pay any taxes to begin with. More pulp fiction from the dead tree media!
It’s 52% and its not taxes, just income taxes. Everyone pays sales tax, look at your f******* grocery receipt sometime.
I looked at my grocery receipt, and gee, no sales tax.
Back in the day, when I was seriously studying poli sci, the standard for a poll was 1800 people polled; it’s been some years, and I don’t remember the numbers, but it seemed to give a reasonable standard deviation so that it was very unlikely that (if the respondents were randomly selected) that the poll was off more than a couple of percent.
The problem with the Strib and Minnesota polls is that they are consistently off by more than that; the only serious question is why?, not whether.
Scenario 1:
“On election day your poll turned out to be off by 12%.”
“A poll is just a snapshot in time! It was accurate for the day that we polled!”
Scenario 2:
“Your poll was dead-on”
“See what great pollsters we are!”
I am going to wait patiently for a convincing FACT CHECK on this whole subject. I personally think Mark Dayton is dreamilicisous. I love those eyes.
“What’s the MoE of this poll boss?”
I’ll say + or – 3 – due to the laughers!
Pingback: Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » Chanting Points Memo: The Cult Of Compromise