The DFL Morale Builder, Part II

The Star Tribune‘s “Minnesota Poll” continues to serve its primary function – manipulating voter turnout.

As always with the MNPoll, the marquee numbers are nearly meaningless;

Dayton has strengthened his lead to 41 percent, according to the poll, followed by Emmer at 34 percent. Horner, who has struggled to get out of the teens in all public polls, is at 13 percent. That’s down from a peak of 18 percent last month.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 18 and 21 among 999 likely Minnesotans voters on both land-line and cell phones. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

No, it’s the crosstab numbers that matter  It’s buried on the second page of the online report, naturally:

In this poll, the sample of likely voters consisted of 34 percent Democrats, 31 percent independents and 30 percent Republicans.

Four percent overpoll of Democrats?  This year?

The poll is of 999 “likely voters” – and it’s there that the methodology goes from “reporting” to , as David Brauer puts it, the “secret sauce”.

[the poll is] based on 804 land-line and 402 cell phone interviews conducted Oct. 18-21 with a representative sample of Minnesota adults. Of that sample, 999 were deemed to be likely voters, and the poll results are based on those respondents.

And there’s the detail in which the Devil is.  How does Princeton Research (the company that actually does the Strib’s polling) take those 1,200 likely voters and “deem” 1,000 or so of them to be “likely”?

We don’t know.  None of the major pollsters will say.

The article, by Rachel Stassen-Berger, goes on to squeeze in a puff piece for Dayton.

We really know two things:

The Minnesota Poll has, for a generation, always shown Republicans behind the week before the election, sometimes by ludicrious amounts, when they went on to win.

And the Minnesota Poll’s errors immediately before elections inevitably appear designed to drive down Republican turnout in elections that every other pollster in the business shows to be incredibly tightly contested.

It is time for someone to investigate the Strib’s polling operations, both under Princeton Research and, before 2007, under Rob Daves.  If Emmer wins – and I predict he will, by a three point margin – it’ll be further proof that the Minnesota poll is nothing a get out the DFL vote/suppress the GOP vote effort.

The deniablity is plausible – but only just.

20 thoughts on “The DFL Morale Builder, Part II

  1. Pingback: Tweets that mention Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » The DFL Morale Builder, Part II --

  2. I attended the big Obama rally yesterday…and left with a light heart and an undisguised smirk.

    Dayton was clearly testing the limits of his med’s; I swear I wouldn’t have been surprised in the least if he’d have run screaming from the stage.

    The vast majority of the crowd was composed of UofM students burning a Saturday until the parties started after dark. In fact, it occurred to me that the venue was chosen to ensure The Light Worker didn’t suffer the embarrassment of a half empty room ala Biden at Mac.

    The kids clearly came to be entertained by Obama, and couldn’t have cared less about Brave Sir Mark…and these are the “voters” the Strib counts on to answer cell phones.

    Epic FAIL.

    Emmer by 8.

  3. Oh, BTW. The most favorable estimate of the Obama crowd didn’t meet the one that assembled to see Palin and Bachmann.

    Smack down!

  4. Bachmann headlines conservative rally

    Posted at 10:22 AM on October 8, 2010 by Mike Mulcahy (1 Comments)
    Filed under: Campaign 2010, Campaign 2010: U.S. MN CD6, U.S. House

    From Annie Baxter:

    GOP U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann attacked Democrats, food stamps, and Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner last night at an event called “Reclaiming America: The Taking Back Congress Tour.”

    Bachmann was joined by conservative broadcasters Hugh Hewitt and Dennis Prager. GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer made a guest appearance.

    The event at Orchestra Hall in Minneapolis was sponsored by the conservative radio station AM 1280 The Patriot and drew about 400 people, leaving many of the 1,500 seats on the main floor of Orchestra Hall empty.

    = = = = = =

    400 . . . nice! and ‘mitch’ wonders why even RepublicanMussen is polling +5 Democratic!

  5. You can’t trust MPR, Flash. As an NPR affiliate station, their reporters have to toe the editorial line or be fired.

  6. Michele Bachmann attacked Democrats, food stamps
    So food “stamps” are a good thing? Hey, maybe everyone should be getting them. If Obama and the Democrats keep doing what they have done for the last 20 months, everyone will need to. Sadly, no one will be able to PAY for them.
    Go rent a clue, Flash.

  7. Yeah, that article is a good laugh. “The more people on foodstamps, the better!” Sayeth madame Pelosi.

    Baxter is as shallow as spit on a sidewalk. She calls it the “non-partisan” CBO, when of course the CBO is partisan on behalf of the congressional branch of government.

  8. Let’s hope they don’t start tinkering with the MN Poll anytime soon. It would cause many people to have to recalibrate their reaction to the results. Consider their inaccurate polling methodology a feature, not a bug.
    As for the Mme. Pelosi Food Stamp thinking… Well I’m sure up until Sherman tourised Georgia, a similar line of reasoning was rampant on the plantations. As PJ P’Rourke wrote recently…
    “Democrats hate Democrats most of all. Witness the policies that Democrats have inflicted on their core constituencies, resulting in vile schools, lawless slums, economic stagnation, and social immobility. Democrats will do anything to make sure that Democratic voters stay helpless and hopeless enough to vote for Democrats.”

  9. Say, moonbat Flush? Clue coming; duck.

    April 7, 2010

    “Before thousands of Minnesotans, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann delivered a hard-edged message Wednesday of freedoms threatened and an overreaching liberal government that must be stopped at the polls in the fall elections.

    They pitched “common-sense conservatism,” wrapped in patriotic, down-home language, and voiced a repeated call to return Bachmann to Congress.”

    The event you are talking about cost money…Bammy couldn’t match Palin’s attendance…she kicked his ass to be frank. And Trust Fund Baby?


    Check out your boy in action, moonbat Flush:

    Looks like he just left your garage after snorting lines of kool-aid and meth!


  10. Brave Sir Mark was just waiting for his transcript so he could find out what Great Leader Obama actually was saying.

  11. Join Governor Haley Barbour, Governor Chris Christie, Governor Tim Pawlenty & Congressman Michele Bachmann in support of Tom Emmer for Governor

    Anoka-Blaine Airport this coming Saturday.

    Barbour and Christie…..2 of the best in the country.

  12. Found it on FB:

    (VERRRRRRRRRRRRRRY tempted to go if I’m not busy…)

    Join Governor Haley Barbour, Governor Chris Christie, Governor Tim Pawlenty & Congressman Michele Bachmann in support of Tom Emmer for Governor

    Saturday, October 30
    Doors Open 1:00 PM
    Program Starts 2:00 PM

    Key Air Hangar
    Anoka County – Blaine Airport (Janes Field)
    10188 Radisson Road NE
    Blaine, MN 55449

    This rally is FREE of cost and no ticket is needed for general admission.

    Preferred tickets are available for those who volunteer for GOTV through a Republican Party of Minnesota field director on Thursday, Friday or Saturday. Visit MNGOP.COM and click on”Get Involved” to sign up for GOTV shifts.

    We have a tremendous program planned with several guest speakers. Please stay tuned as we will release more featured guests throughout the week. Want to be the first to know? Text MN2010 to 69467 to get the details about our special guests before everyone else!

    Questions? Please call us at 651-222-0022.

  13. Isn’t the Key Air Hanger the place where McCain/Palin did a rally leading up to 2008 pres election?

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