How The Hell Does Emmer Win This Thing, Part II

In this past week, Minnesota has been presented with four different polls on the Minnesota governor’s race; the risible Minnesota poll, the oddly-disconnected Humphrey Institute Poll, the Rasmussen Poll (which may or may not have overpolled Republicans, as opposed to the MN and HHH polls, which certainly overpolled Democrats) and, late last week, the SurveyUSA (SUSA) poll.  These polls showed a smorgasbord of results.  You can pick the one you prefer, really – as, indeed, most Minnesota political junkies have done.

I prefer Rasmussen.  Not because it showed Emmer in the lead – that fact made me happy, but then so would a “Berg Institute” poll that showed Emmer leading 100-0; the BI poll has no real track record, so I’d put no real stock in it – but because Rasmussen has been the closest pollster on the past couple of elections.

Still, the SUSA poll sort of splits the difference between the two.  It shows Dayton with a lead just outside the margin of error.

But it shows two other things that should be hugely encouraging to the Emmer campaign.

Peoples’ Hearts In Right Place – With Their Wallets: While the poll shows Emmer slightly behind, it asks the question “how should we resolve Minnesota’s budget deficit?”

And here are the answers:

Minnesota likely voters – however measured -prefer raising taxes over “not sure” by less than the margin of error.  38% favor some combination of spending cuts and tax hikes.  And 53% favor cuts in spending.

Given that there is only one candidate who favors getting government spending under control, the target of Emmer’s next two weeks should be fairly clear; reaching the 53% of Minnesotans who support Emmer, but just don’t know it yet.

Is The Big Break Here?:  The week before last, I reported on the landslide taking shape in District 32A, Kurt Zellers’ district in Maple Grove.  The DFL’s been targeting that district all year, but it’s just not working – Zellers is clobbering Katie Rodriguez by 24 points, even though Margaret Anderson-Kelliher proclaimed the district to be prime upset territory bare weeks earlier.

But the real development in that story, as I noted, was that independents – people who are non-GOP-affiliated in that GOP-leaning district – are breaking toward Emmer by a 4-1 margin.

And in this SUSA poll, we see for the first time in this cycle that Independents are trending toward Emmer, 37-35 (with 19 for Horner).  Independents tend to make up their mind at the last possible moment; this next two weeks is Go time.

It’s inside the margin of error, to be sure – but it’s trended up in since the last SUSA poll, while Dayton’s support has trended down.

So how does Emmer win this thing?

Show them that he’s got an actual plan: As this campaign has progressed, it’s become painfully clear that Dayton’s budget “plan” is nothing but wishful thinking; its entire focus is on taxes (barring a few ludicrous putative spending cuts that flunk every stink test from here to MPR), as opposed to the spending cuts a majority of Minnesotans favor.  Emmer’s plan is real, it’s rational, the numbers check out (unlike either Horner’s or Dayton’s).  Emmer must hammer this.  53% of Minnesotans, say SUSA, are ready and waiting.

Point out that Dayton and Horner’s “plans” are vaporware. There is no there there.  The plans don’t pass any fact-checks.  And Dayton’s is utterly dead on arrival with the legislature.  (“But so is Emmer’s”, the leftybloggers bleat, ignoring the fact that Emmer’s plan can virtually pass on pure inertia, as opposed to Dayton’s, which will require a legislative miracle – and to paraphrase Monsieur Ferrari, the Tea Party has outlawed legislative miracles that involve hiking taxes or spending).  In a legislative cycle where voters want things to get done, Dayton and Horner’s plans are both complete wastes of time, doomed from inception.

He Rides The Tide: It’s not just a, er, shot in the dark on my part.  Rasmussen notes a bit of recent history:

“And by two-to-one, voters say they prefer a congressman who will reduce overall spending to one who promises to bring a ‘fair share’ of government spending to their congressional district,” the veteran pollster said, adding that a plurality of Texas voters backed Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s recent decision to turn down federal dollars a program because federal strings were attached to it.

The Republicans’ strong position three weeks before midterm elections began, Rasmussen recalled, “when every Republican [in the House] said they would oppose the stimulus package…And support for it never recovered.”

“And by two-to-one, voters say they prefer a congressman who will reduce overall spending to one who promises to bring a ‘fair share’ of government spending to their congressional district,” the veteran pollster said, adding that a plurality of Texas voters backed Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s recent decision to turn down federal dollars a program because federal strings were attached to it.

So that’s how Emmer wins this thing; show that 53% of Minnesotans that he’s got the answer.

We can all, help, of course. Pass the word.  I don’t remotely believe that the major polls’ likely voter models accurately predict likely voter turnout – but there’s no reason not to make sure everyone gets the facts.

Emmer’s going to win this thing.  Suck it up and let’s make this happen.

31 thoughts on “How The Hell Does Emmer Win This Thing, Part II

  1. “You can pick the one you prefer, really – as, indeed, most Minnesota political junkies have done.”

    I would instead suggest averaging them all out, I have done this in three ways; regular average, last three polls average, weighted average.

    Check it out: http://goo.gl/q2jc

    This is a much more reliable than the results of any one poll on it’s own.

  2. Are you making up numbers or just ignoring them. The latest RepublicanMussen poll also shows Dayton in the lead:

    ==
    http://tinyurl.com/28zxwok
    Friday, October 08, 2010

    The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Dayton picking up 40% of the vote, while Emmer draws support from 38%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner remains a distant third with 15%.
    ==

    And trends, on the SurveyUSA poll 9/12 vs 10/11

    Dayon from 38 to 42
    Emmer from 36 to 37

    Only in the world of Shot in the Onion would that mean “it’s trended up in since the last SUSA poll, while Dayton’s support has trended down.”

    Nice fiction, though. I’m sure your rabid readers need this Monday morning red meat to get their hearts beating after a weekend of intravenous KoolAid.

    Flash

  3. He should also go after AFABM and point out their outright stupidity!

    If you look at their “sources” for their statements about Boozer Boy Dayton, you see such fact based “sources” as MinnPost, the Red Star and MPR. The most hilarious one of all is the snip about his teaching stint; Source: his own web site!

    Of course, the useful idiots like flasher, doggy and disco, believe all this stuff, staring at their master their TV, waiting for their next blogging points. And flasher, you prove it by continually “exposing” (pun intended) yourself as the REAL kool aid drinker. Tell us how it feels being a mindless troll waiting for the next marching orders from your government? Seig heil, Komraden!

  4. Wow, Flash!
    *RepublicanMussen
    *Shot in the Onion
    *rabid readers
    *weekend of intravenous KoolAid

    All in one “centrist” comment.

    You may have reached a new low. Are you sure you aren’t Eva Young in drag?

  5. Kermit, if you looks at other blogs those names are tame compared to what the foaming at the mouth lefties call us.

  6. “…(which may or may not have overpolled Republicans, as opposed to the MN and HHH polls, which certainly overpolled Democrats) and, late last week, the SurveyUSA (SUSA) poll. ”

    Yeah, outside of Rassmussen admitting it probably has a Republican bias by polling what it considers likely voters (defined as older and disproportionately white)..

    Golly…

    Mitch, why do you need to start off your posts with this incipidly and wilfully distorted comments. Very often it keeps the main point from being read (and therefore heard).

    Emmer’s chief problem is Pawlenty, Pawlenty left the state in a budgetary morasse, and the electorate with a view that Pawlenty was not much more than an obstacle to progress. We’ve tried tax cuts (by not adjusting for inflation if nothing else), and jobs didn’t grow and we have a budget mess. Emmer has not codified plan other than cutting even more, while somehow, supposedly, paying for education (a promise which appears to be nothing more than a politcal sop to the masses, a promise he can’t keep, and unless he’s stupid he knows it, which then is therefore a lie OR worse a deception).

    BTW, Ben, when you decide to call someone like Flash, a conservative who no longer can affiliate with the Republican party because of how extreme it has become, when you decide to call him or those like him “foaming”, you appear just a tad blindered. Or maybe you mean to call us “tics” or “traitors” or a host of other things you-not-foaming-at-the-mouth types call us. Or maybe, you’re not supporting the Tea Party “I’m mad as hell and I”m not going to take it (but don’t call me foaming)” Movement?

  7. BTW, Mitch, I think I’ve said to you before, look at Electionprojection.com – it’s run by a conservative, and has been pretty damend accurate in the past. Currently it has the vote as Moderate to Dayton, which is probably correct. Your trending fiction notwithstanding.

  8. why the hell isn’t he winning right now?

    I think the answer to that question answers the first question.

  9. Say Flush?

    Since we know you’ll crawl back under your rock after the election, would you mind, awfully, if I took a moment, just for myself?

    Bwwwwaaaahahahahahahahaahaaa(you and your stinking lowlife party got your asses kicked!)aaahahahahahahahahahaahaaa(that’s Governor Emmer to you, moonbat)HAHAHAHAHAHAHahahahahaha(Bachmann stronger than ever and Clark out of a job!)hahahahahahahahahahahaaaaa(Party of Scrubs moves into the capital broom closet!)hahahahahahahahahaha(‘Bammy has locked himself in his bedroom!)hahahahahahhahahahahahhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

    Oh boy. Thanks Flush.

  10. Barack won’t lock himself in his bedroom. He knows the First Klingon can find him there. Starting on 11/3 expect Great leader to begin a 23 month campaign tour of Hollywood and American universities.

  11. Electionprojection.com – it’s run by a conservative, and has been pretty damend accurate in the past.

    Ah. Well, if you say they say so, then that must be all there is to it!

    Well, no.

    Currently it has the vote as Moderate to Dayton, which is probably correct.

    Really?

    Why?

    I mean seriously, P, why is it “probably” correct? Based on what sample? What voter model? What crosstabs? Every polling service has a different methodology; they all involve a certain amount of hocus pocus. Rasmussen comes in for a lot of slander, but their results have been the closest to reality from 2008 on, pretty consistently.

    Your trending fiction notwithstanding.

    As I showed on this blog last week and earlier this morning, there’s no fiction; the SUSA poll showed Independents have moved to Emmer, and the 32B internal poll showed it even more so.

    It’s a theory. I have evidence, and I’ve presented it. Feel free to present evidence of your own.

    Neither of your comments really does.

    Just saying

  12. Penigma Says:”Emmer’s chief problem is Pawlenty, Pawlenty left the state in a budgetary morasse……………”

    B.S. Big Mak and the repugnant one Pogemiller left the state in a “budgetary morasse”, Pawlenty refused to sign on!!!

  13. What Scott said.

    Pen – the DFL has run this state in every respect since 2006. They have controlled the entire state goverment with the exception of the Governor’s office.

    Any “fiscal morass” started from their desk, and ends there as well.

  14. Um, didn’t the DFL retire the state legislature without passing a budget? Run away! Run Away!

  15. to be fair, the US Congress didn’t either Kermit. They were just following the lead of those brave Democrats in DC.

  16. flash is “foaming”. As are you, Penigma.

    You both lift up your pom poms and cheer for Senator Mark “I give myself an F” Dayton. You both actually WANT him to be governor of Minnesota. The label sticks.

  17. BTW, Ben, when you decide to call someone like Flash, a conservative who no longer can affiliate with the Republican party because of how extreme it has become, when you decide to call him or those like him “foaming”, you appear just a tad blindered.

    Flash thinks we could get rid of these federal deficits if only the rich would be made to pay their fair share!
    Just like Dayton.

  18. Brave Sir Mark has his money in South Dakota. If elected, his money will stay in South Dakota, because smart people tell him what to do with it.

  19. Yeah, outside of Rassmussen admitting it probably has a Republican bias by polling what it considers likely voters (defined as older and disproportionately white)..

    Er, where DO you get that? Rasmussen “admitted” no such thing. Their likely voter model pointed out that white middle class people are incredibly motivated to vote. Which makes them very likely to be…likely voters! Which is of course the point of a poll based on…likely voters!

    Mitch, why do you need to start off your posts with this incipidly and wilfully distorted comments. Very often it keeps the main point from being read (and therefore heard).

    What on earth are you referring to? The main point of my post is what I said it was; I believe Emmer to be underpolling so far. I presented evidence toward that conclusion.

    You have countered me with a lefty chanting point about Rasmussen, a begged question about middle class whites, an insult (insipid? Really?), a chanting point about Pawlenty backed with no numbers, a distortion about Emmer’s budget, and…well, you get the picture.

    BTW, Ben, when you decide to call someone like Flash, a conservative who no longer can affiliate with the Republican party

    Um…how’s that?

    You can call Flash a lot of things. But he’s got a wall full of “Carter/Mondale” buttons in his garage – you’ve seen ’em! – not Reagan/Bush.

    Sorry, P, but you have that dead wrong.

  20. Well here’s how Flash is a conservative, then; he personally took all those Carter/Mondale buttons off liberals, hampering Carter’s campaign in Minnesota and causing him to….

    …oh, wait, Carter took Minnesota. Never mind.

  21. I’ve talked to a lot of people, craft union members, middle class (be it white or otherwise), and those that have been pretty much Dem voters all there lives, and it’s shocking how pissed they are at the Dems and the situation we find ourselves in today. I’m also getting the same sense of disatisfaction from the Indie types. Those who vote GOP that I know are frothing at the mouth to get to the pols, they’re plenty incited. I firmly believe there is going to be a huge push back on the party in power on election day (both local and national), irregardless of what any one poll may indicate. This will likely be the biggest turn out for a mid-term election than any in memory.

  22. Penguin- “…who can no longer affiliate with the Republican party because of how extreme it has become…” What’s extreme about less government, lower taxes, less judicial activism, ect.? Seems like some guys thought the same “extreme” things a couple of hundred years ago. Silly me- Here I thought spending 6 billion dollars that you don’t have is extreme.

  23. “You can call Flash a lot of things. But he’s got a wall full of “Carter/Mondale” buttons in his garage – you’ve seen ‘em! – not Reagan/Bush. ”

    I have a 2ft x 2ft cork board full of buttons, including a Reagan button. It isn’t necessarily full of any one particular button but it is dominated by Democrats, but not exclusively. I have nothing from this election cycle, no signs, nothing!

    Mitch knows this, apparently he hasn’t filled in ‘mitch’ yet.

    Flash

  24. Flash, I have never heard a conservative say that there should be “No taxes, no government, no regulation,”
    No wonder you libs are doing so poorly in the polls. Your running against figments of your imagination.

  25. To Proffesor Flush- I said lower taxes, and less government, not “no no no.” You are hereby required to re-take reading comprehension 101. There, glad I could help the impaired.

  26. flash said:

    “but it is dominated by Democrats”

    So much the “centrist”. I laugh.

    “No taxes, no government, no regulation, no no no”

    You have helped, flash, but more in the “allowing readers a view into your addled mind” way than in correction.

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