Just Around The Corner From The Light Of Day

The latest Rasmussen Poll shows the race still a dead heat, but with Emmer ahead:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters shows Emmer earning 42% support to Dayton’s 41% when leaners are included. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is a distant third with nine percent (9%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

The findings move the race to a Toss-Up from Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Dayton’s supporters will do the usual bleating; it’s a landline phone survey, yadda yadda.

And some of the local wonk class are astounded that Tom Horner, who drew 18 points in the last KSTP/Survey USA poll, is down to 9 in the lastest Raz.

I think there’s a rational reason for it; I’ll add emphasis:

This is the first survey of the governor’s race to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

Excluding leaners, Emmer edges Dayton 36% to 34%, and Horner chalks up 18% support. Horner’s loss of support when leaners are added highlights the tendency in most races for supporters of third-party candidates to gravitate to one of the major party nominees as Election Day approaches.

I suspect an awful lot of people consider third-party candidacies as a sort of personal “protest” against the major parties – up until it becomes real to them.

We’ll be talking about one of those issues that are making the leaners lean real hard, at noon today on Shot In The Dark.

6 thoughts on “Just Around The Corner From The Light Of Day

  1. Pingback: Hot Air » Rasmussen: Emmer moves out to slight lead in MN gubernatorial race

  2. Lot of work to do for Emmer, of course, but it confirms a few things that I’ve thought about the race, to wit:

    1) If it’s even, Emmer’s leavin’.

    2) The David Schultzes of the world love Horner because he’s what they’d like to be: an ostensibly smart guy who could be philosopher king if only the rubes would get with the program. But Horner’s got two problems: (a) he would have no way to govern because he’d be in Jesse’s strategic position but without the good will that Jesse got; and (b) in the final analysis, he’s kinda creepy.

    Also, did you catch Sack’s cartoon today in the Strib? He played the Dan Hindbjorgen card! About as good a shot at Dayton’s economic policies as you’ll see. If Brave Sir Mark has lost Sack, what does he have?

  3. Meanwhile, Taxin’ Tarryl continues here lame ass ads with her stop watch and call to Michelle Bachman to cut her salary and budget. With such a compelling message, I can only guess how that’s working for her.

  4. Didn’t Tarryl also vote to increase her per diem in the MN Senate? talk about the pot calling the kettle black. And doesn’t she know Michelle is in the MINORITY party (for now) in Congress?

  5. Yes, she did and apparently not.

    Maybe I should have called her the Demonrat’s other one trick pony.

  6. Pingback: Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » Facts, Theories And Suppositions

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