September 24, 2004

The Poll That Matters

Forget the Gallup, AP, CNN, Minnesota and Quinnipiac polls. This one has the juice:

What is the Presidential Mask Election Predictor? In 2000, due to the popularity of political masks, began publishing statistics on each Presidential Candidate's mask sales. It was soon apparent that the mask sales were as good a resource as the polls being published by major national media groups. Seeing the similarities, then looked into some data on political mask sales in election years. Not only did they ask five different mask manufacturers, they also spoke with 12 national stores about their sales history all the way back to 1980. Their findings were astounding and right every time....
Right every time? What's their track record?

Year Winner Loser
1980 Reagan = 60% Carter = 40%
1984 Reagan = 68% Mondale = 32%
1988 Bush = 62% Dukakis = 38%
1992 Clinton = 41% Bush 39%
1996 Clinton = 56% Dole = 40%
2000 Bush = 57% Gore = 43%

And the current polling? Bush = 56%, Kerry = 44%

OK, seriously now; while this is presented tongue-in-cheek, there's a serious component to this. Polls are easy; someone calls, you answer; talk is cheap.

But the Presidential Mask poll, like the Iowa Electronic Market, involves the actual transaction of money. It's not just hot air - people get serious when they have money riding on an outcome (like the IEM), or when they're spending something they have to work for to get it (like the masks).

I'm not calling this race, naturally (although if you're reading this in California or Oregon, and thinking of voting Kerry, feel free to stay home from the polls). But it's one more light at the other end of the electoral tunnel.

Posted by Mitch at September 24, 2004 11:01 AM | TrackBack

What does it say if your buy all 3 masks on like I did (POTUS, VPOTUS and FLOTUS?) You saw them Mitch, they are actually very realistic masks. I hope the margin of victory in the mask poll is is the same margin as 2000 which means we are in for another photo finish?

Posted by: laura at September 24, 2004 05:25 PM

What does it say if you buy all three masks at like I did (POTUS, VPOTUS and FLOTUS)? You saw them Mitch they are actually very realistic masks. Let's hope the margin of victory of the "mask poll" is insignificant, because the margin right now is the same as 2000...are we in for another photo finish?

Posted by: laura at September 24, 2004 05:27 PM

I don't knw that the margin matters...hopefully not.

Posted by: Mitch at September 25, 2004 12:11 AM

Problem is, the mask sales statistics are for the whole year, not just pre- Election Day. That means some of the masks for a given election year were sold *after* the prez was elected. The post-election mask purchases would of course skew the sales numbers in favor of the election winner.

Posted by: Hack Owen at September 25, 2004 06:39 AM