{"id":89264,"date":"2025-02-19T06:49:32","date_gmt":"2025-02-19T12:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=89264"},"modified":"2025-02-19T06:52:59","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T12:52:59","slug":"handicapping-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=89264","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>So &#8211; Tina Smith is retiring from politics. <\/p>\n<p>The rumor mill has it that the Walz camp is pressuring Smith to resign early, so he can appoint himself &#8211; setting himself up as an incumbent in the Senate race (and Flanagan in a hypothetical governor race), and giving him and Gwen that &#8220;inside the beltway&#8221; view they clearly lust for.\u00a0 Flanagan entering the race changes that equation, maybe. <\/p>\n<p>But let&#8217;s put a pin in the rumor, and talk about what we <em>do\u00a0<\/em>know:\u00a0 there are five DFL candidates so far saying they&#8217;re running, or thinking strongly about it:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gov. Walz<\/li>\n<li>Lt. Gov. Flanagan<\/li>\n<li>Rep. Ilhan Omar<\/li>\n<li>Rep. Angie Craig<\/li>\n<li>State Rep. Leigh Fink\u00e9. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Who&#8217;s gonna get the nod in the end?<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll come back to that.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SOP<\/strong> &#8211; One thing Ken Martin has always been good at is concealing the metro DFL&#8217;s insanity to the state at large.\u00a0 He&#8217;s sought, I think it&#8217;s fair to say, to convey the image that the DFL isn&#8217;t <em>thst\u00a0<\/em>different from the Humphrey\/Mondale DFL that everyone&#8217;s grandparents voted for while listening to WCCO and talking about Bud Grant over a Hamms and some walleye.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=67013\">See also 2018<\/a> &#8211; when the DFL convention was well on its way to endorsing Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade for the top of the gubernatorial ticket, as well as radical Matt Pelikan for Attorney General.\u00a0 Martin stepped in, marshalled the party&#8217;s resources, attached Walz to Peggy Flanagan to keep the progressive base happy(er), and dragged him across the. primary finish line with barely a 40% plurality.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>With Ken Martin in charge, one might presume the machinations would end up something like&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>State Rep. Leigh Fink\u00e9 &#8211; kryptonite outside CD4-5.\u00a0\u00a0 Ultra-progs might rally around Fink\u00e9 at the convention &#8211; especially now that Flanagan looks like a relative moderate &#8211; but the ultra-progressivr DSA vote would still get split with&#8230;\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Rep. Ilhan Omar, who would also be poison statewide, but who can raise money like&#8230;well, a Democrat with connections in Hollywood.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Lt. Gov. Flanagan &#8211; She used to be considered borderline radical &#8211; she had the most &#8220;progressive&#8221; voting record in the MN House in 2018.\u00a0\u00a0 Is she progressive\u00a0<em>enough\u00a0<\/em>to keep the loony vote from moving to Omar and maybe Fink\u00e9?\u00a0 And while she <em>was<\/em> in literally every Walz ad, news release and selfie from 2018 to five minutes after he got off the national campaign trail, she hasn&#8217;t actually\u00a0<em>done\u00a0<\/em>anything.\u00a0\u00a0 What does she run on &#8211; being Tim Walz&#8217;s insurance policy?\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Rep. Angie Craig &#8211; On the one hand, she could climb into her jeep and make some more ads cavorting around Le Seuer county with some central-casting Good Ol&#8217; Boys to make herself more appealing to Greater Minnesota than the three above.\u00a0\u00a0 Which leaves&#8230;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Gov. Walz, the incumbent.\u00a0 On the one hand, polling shows he&#8217;s still got general approval &#8211; which is inexplicable to me.\u00a0 He&#8217;s got a national profile.\u00a0 He&#8217;s got fundraising chops like Omar &#8211; likely similar to those Crag draws from.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If Ken Martin were in charge, I&#8217;d guess he&#8217;d throw the state DFL behind Walz, offer to get behind Flanagan for Governor, promise resources to soften and broaden Omar&#8217;s image for a future Senate run whenever A-Klo leaves office.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But that was Ken Martin.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Swerve:  <\/strong>Persistent rumor has it that Ken Martin will be replaced by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?s=Carlbom&amp;submit=Search\">Richard Carlbom<\/a> &#8211; former head (however briefly) of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?tag=protectmn\">&#8220;Protect&#8221; Minnesota<\/a> (remember them?) and before that the architect of the Same Sex Marriage amendment push.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the one hand, he&#8217;s more openly allied with the &#8220;progressive&#8221; wing than Martin.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>On the other, he&#8217;s smart enough to have sold same sex marriage as a &#8220;moderate-enough&#8221; issue to win a statewide vote.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>If I had to predict&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So &#8211; Tina Smith is retiring from politics. The rumor mill has it that the Walz camp is pressuring Smith to resign early, so he can appoint himself &#8211; setting himself up as an incumbent in the Senate race (and Flanagan in a hypothetical governor race), and giving him and Gwen that &#8220;inside the beltway&#8221; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-89264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=89264"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89268,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89264\/revisions\/89268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=89264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=89264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=89264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}