{"id":83427,"date":"2022-09-21T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-21T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=83427"},"modified":"2022-09-21T12:04:49","modified_gmt":"2022-09-21T17:04:49","slug":"the-dfls-no-good-very-bad-day-part-i-polled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=83427","title":{"rendered":"The DFL&#8217;s No Good, Very Bad Day (Part I):  Polled"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It was a rough day for the DFL yesterday.   One we&#8217;ll be talking about on Saturday at some length. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First:  a Trafalgar poll showed the Governor&#8217;s race tied, and Jim Schultz and Ryan Wilson ahead in the Attorney General and Auditor&#8217;s races:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At the top of the ticket, Republican challenger Dr. Scott Jensen trails the Democratic incumbent, Gov. Tim Walz, by just under 3 points. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KeCCbJK2Hh\">https:\/\/t.co\/KeCCbJK2Hh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Alpha News (@AlphaNewsMN) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlphaNewsMN\/status\/1572194507436728320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 20, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After the cold bucket of water from SUSA three weeks ago &#8211; showing the whole GOP ticket hopelessly out of the running &#8211; this poll is&#8230;bracing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Governor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-2-1024x575.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-83428\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-2-1024x575.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-2-300x168.png 300w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-2-768x431.png 768w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-2-500x281.png 500w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-2.png 1270w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And the news down-ticket is even  better.   Kim Crockett solidly in the running for Secretary of State:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-1024x573.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-83432\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-1024x573.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-300x168.png 300w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-768x430.png 768w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6-500x280.png 500w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-6.png 1270w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ryan Wilson has nosed ahead of Julie &#8220;White Claw&#8221; Blaha &#8211; of whom more below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-5-1024x571.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-83431\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-5-1024x571.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-5-300x167.png 300w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-5-768x428.png 768w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-5-500x279.png 500w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-5.png 1269w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And nosing into &#8220;shock the world&#8221; territory, the poll shows Jim Schultz  leading Keith Ellison:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-4-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-83430\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-4-1024x574.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-4-300x168.png 300w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-4-768x431.png 768w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-4-500x280.png 500w, http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-4.png 1270w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I haven&#8217;t seen crosstabs &#8211; more on Trafalgar&#8217;s reliability below &#8211; but if those stack up, it&#8217;ll explain why the DFL and ABM&#8217;s TV ads are getting so shrill-sounding. With public opinion polling, the devil is always in the details; sampling, turnout models, methodology, all of them can distort numbers, and we really won&#8217;t know until election night for real, anyway.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But If these are close, I can&#8217;t wait to hear about Angie Craig&#8217;s internal polls . <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the chorus of calumny from DFLers about the Trafalgar poll (which Nate Silver rates as an &#8220;A&#8221; for methodology and accuracy) shows us one thing, it&#8217;s that Minnesota DFLers aren&#8217;t used to getting bad news.  They do it with all the grace of toddlers who don&#8217;t get their ice cream cone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of law and order, that brings us to the next story: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was a rough day for the DFL yesterday. One we&#8217;ll be talking about on Saturday at some length. First: a Trafalgar poll showed the Governor&#8217;s race tied, and Jim Schultz and Ryan Wilson ahead in the Attorney General and Auditor&#8217;s races: After the cold bucket of water from SUSA three weeks ago &#8211; showing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[427,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-22","category-minnesota-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=83427"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83442,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83427\/revisions\/83442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=83427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=83427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=83427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}