{"id":81734,"date":"2022-04-26T10:51:17","date_gmt":"2022-04-26T15:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=81734"},"modified":"2022-04-26T10:51:17","modified_gmt":"2022-04-26T15:51:17","slug":"where-will-you-be-in-nine-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=81734","title":{"rendered":"Where will you be in nine years?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The answer may be “in a cave up in the mountains, taking a guard duty shift at the mouth of the cave, projecting how long the canned food can last before another supply run is needed.”

Here is a screen capture from the White House proposed budget for 2022<\/a>. It shows “accounts payable” and “accounts receivable” over the next nine years. It projects budget deficits in the 1.3-1.5 trillion dollar range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n



In addition, it shows expected mandatory outlays. These start at 4 trillion and go to about 5.5 trillion. Dollars. These are things like Granny’s social security check.

Discretionary outlays are in the 1.6-1.8 trillion dollar range.

So, a little back of the envelope math. Public debt is “officially” around 23 trillion dollars, and as seen here only continues to increase at a yearly clip of over a trillion dollars.

How might we get the debt and deficits under control? Well, we could take an axe to discretionary spending and just completely wipe it out. No defense spending, nothing. Does that sound likely? No.

Or, we can cut social spending by a trillion and a half each year. Does that sound likely? No<\/a>.

Trouble is, reality may do that for us, though. And how smoothly do you think those social changes will go? This from a 2020 SS Trustees report<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the Trustees\u2019 intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income starting in 2021, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035. Figure II.D2 shows the implications of reserve depletion for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034 and the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2065.2 In last year\u2019s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2035 for OASDI, 2034 for OASI, and 2052 for DI.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

2021 was last year by the way, and just after these budget projects run out, Social Security keels over.

How about Medicare? Same story<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trust fund for Medicare Part A will be able to pay full benefits until 2026 before reserves will be depleted.

That\u2019s the same year as predicted in 2020, according to a summary of the trustees 2021 report, which was released on Tuesday. If the reserves run out for the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, then the program\u2019s income should be able to cover 91% of scheduled benefits. Medicare Part A covers hospital care for enrollees.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Then there’s interest on the debt. From projections, just the interest on the debt runs from about 8% of net mandatory outlays up to around 17%. And that doesn’t take into account interest rates going higher<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there’s interest on the debt. From projections, just the interest on the debt runs from about 8% of net mandatory outlays up to around 17%. And that doesn’t take into account interest rates going higher.

The roughly $300 billion the federal government will spend on interest payments this fiscal year is more than it is expected to spend on veterans\u2019 services and military retirement ($185 billion); transportation ($188 billion); food and nutrition services ($172 billion), including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (\u201cfood stamps\u201d); housing ($100 billion); K-12 and vocational education ($77 billion); and higher education ($42 billion). By FY 2031, interest costs are projected to be larger than federal spending on Medicaid and unemployment compensation, and over 90 percent as large as defense spending.
…
Under current law, we project interest spending will total $5.1 trillion over the 2021 to 2031 budget window. If interest rates on the projected annual debt stock were 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) higher than CBO currently projects \u2013 reflecting the continuation of the current disparity between projections and reality \u2013 interest costs would increase by $1.7 trillion, to $6.8 trillion total. If interest rates were 100 basis points (one full percentage point) above CBO\u2019s forecast, interest costs would total $8.6 trillion over that period, which is a $3.6 trillion increase over current law.

If interest rates begin at 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) above CBO\u2019s projections and gradually rise to 200 basis points (2 percentage points) above CBO\u2019s forecast \u2013 bringing ten-year rates to just above their 30-year average of 4.3 percent by 2031 \u2013 interest costs would total $11.1 trillion over the 2021-2031 budget window, which is $6.0 trillion more than under current law. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The asteroid is heading for Earth. Impact is projected to be smack in the middle of North America. And no laser in existence is going to deflect it.

So, be careful on that supply run down into the valley. The cannibal gangs are merciless.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The answer may be “in a cave up in the mountains, taking a guard duty shift at the mouth of the cave, projecting how long the canned food can last before another supply run is needed.” Here is a screen capture from the White House proposed budget for 2022. It shows “accounts payable” and “accounts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":273926,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/273926"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=81734"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81734\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":81764,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81734\/revisions\/81764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=81734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=81734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=81734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}