{"id":80196,"date":"2021-12-02T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-02T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=80196"},"modified":"2021-12-02T08:03:34","modified_gmt":"2021-12-02T14:03:34","slug":"the-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=80196","title":{"rendered":"The Odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I live in the Midway.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When people think of the Midway, they think urban blight &#8211; and they&#8217;re not wrong. .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South of Thomas, anyway.  So far.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ve lived here a long, long time. I&#8217;ve been on the rollercoaster &#8211; the worst of the &#8220;Murderapolis&#8221; years (where Saint Paul was also beset with violent crime as well, although as usual to nowhere near the level of Minneapolis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ve got no intention of going anywhere anytime soon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And most of us live here without much incident.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And throughout the cities, most of us do.   Some places it&#8217;s harder than others; I know people in North Minneapolis who&#8217;ve learned to tune out gunfire that&#8217;s not <em>too <\/em>close, sort of like infantrymen who ignore artillery shells that are passing overhead.  Other places it&#8217;s harder for reasons that go beyond ambient crime; people stuck in the &#8220;George Floyd Autonomous Zone&#8221; or whatever they call it these days, or Powderhorn Park last year, where external forces change the neighborhood, against the neighbors will or not.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But for the most part, we live here, more or less like we did five or ten or 25 years ago.  Maybe a little less retain, maybe a little more careful at stoplights &#8211; but life goes on, the changes slow enough, riots notwithstanding, not to raise any particular alarms.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But things <em>are <\/em>worse than they were five years ago; the numbers don&#8217;t lie.  VIolent crime has skyrocketed.   In Minneapolis, they were at 82 homicides so far this year.  That was the total in 2016&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;for the entire state of Minnesota. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So life goes on &#8211; but all is <em>not <\/em>well, and all is <em>not <\/em>what it was five years ago, when Minneapolis had very <em>low <\/em>crime by urban standards, and carjacking was something you read about in Chicago. .We carry on &#8211; but we&#8217;re aware that property crime is a third above the national average;  violent crime, double the national rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I<strong>Shiny Happy People:  <\/strong> bring it up because Ive been beset by a small plague of Shiny Happy People lately.   Overwhelmingly young women in their late &#8217;20s\/early &#8217;30s, visibly and vocally members of &#8220;progressive&#8221; Christian congregations, resisdents of third tier suburbs, who declare &#8220;Don&#8217;t believe all the apocalyptic hype; I&#8217;ve been to Minneapolis (or Saint Paul), a bunch, and it&#8217;s still pretty awesome&#8221;.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The message comes with an. implied &#8220;Tut tut, all you big angry white men; if lil&#8217;. ol&#8217; me can take in a show, I don&#8217;t know what you&#8217;re jabbering about&#8221;. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ll meet &#8217;em halfway.  I&#8217;ve stopped bothering responding to hysterics from  Orono and Landfall and their Mad Max fantasies.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But a quick note to the Shiny Happy People, the &#8220;progressive&#8221; evangelical tourists who drive in, proclaim, and drive back home.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On any given day in Minneapolis last year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>There were five armed robberies &#8211; six times the Minnesota average per capita. <\/li><li>There were 8-9 assaults.  That&#8217;s almost triple the national rate, per capita.  Note that this doesn&#8217;t include the rampant reports of gunfire that don&#8217;t produce a victim &#8211; each of those is an assault, although usually with. not complainant but a victim, either at North Memorial or out on the street. <\/li><li>There was a murder, on average, every 4.5 days.  The rate is closer to every four days, so far this year. <\/li><li>There are ten burglaries<\/li><li>There are thirty reports of theft &#8211; everything from reported shoplifting to porch piracy.  <\/li><li>There were ten car thefts.  <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>That averages out to roughly 66 crimes per day- about 14 of them violent.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Spread that across a population of 400,000 people and your odds of being directly victimized by a  crime of any kind is about 1\/66 (and lower than that if you leave out the burglaries, which won&#8217;t apply to the Shiny Happy tourists).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Your odds of being involved in a violent crime on any given day in Minneapolis are about one in 2,666.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So you&#8217;re right; if you go to visit a congregation, or a restaurant or a coffee shop in the city, the odds that you&#8217;ll get back to Circle Pines unscathed are very, very high.  Even in North Minneapolis, the odds favor you. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But for those of us who <em>are <\/em>here &#8211; many by choice, many not &#8211; the odds get worse every year.  And the crimes that affect quality of life &#8211; the ones that make you focus on. personal security, make you leave a car length in front of you at traffic lights, make you run out to an Amazon drop location rather than get deliveries to your door, make you get your catalytic converters branded to help maybe prevent yet another petty but grossly expensive theft, or that make you wonder in the pit of the night &#8220;was that fireworks, or was that gunfire?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mind your tact, Shiny Happies.  We don&#8217;t go home to Anoka when we&#8217;re done. <\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I live in the Midway. When people think of the Midway, they think urban blight &#8211; and they&#8217;re not wrong. . South of Thomas, anyway. So far. I&#8217;ve lived here a long, long time. I&#8217;ve been on the rollercoaster &#8211; the worst of the &#8220;Murderapolis&#8221; years (where Saint Paul was also beset with violent crime [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80196","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=80196"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80196\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80197,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80196\/revisions\/80197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=80196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=80196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=80196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}