![\"Have](\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_oN6Y1jtbSK8\/SqZFvbZ1QLI\/AAAAAAAAAnY\/SeLvxfxtbXg\/s320\/scott+brown,+image+sun+chronicle.jpg\" "\\"brown\\"")
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The Republican attempt to soil Massachusetts’ tidy Senate election gets bleached.<\/p>\n
In a state where only 24 of the 200 legislators who occupy the legislature are Republicans and which last reliably voted GOP at a national level during Dwight Eisenhower’s era, most pundits and pols could be forgiven for tuning out their interest in the race to succeed the late Ted Kennedy after the lopsided, low-turnout Democratic primary <\/a>of earlier this month.\u00a0 Between Massachusetts’ historically liberal leanings, State Attorney General Martha Coakley’s convincing primary victory and her sizable cash advantage<\/a>,\u00a0national Republican leaders and even\u00a0conservative activists have largely written off St. Sen. Scott Brown’s erstwhile attempt to score even a moral victory in the Bay State.<\/p>\n While there’s no question that despite being an articulate communicator whose good looks allowed him to put his posterior in Cosompolitan<\/em> magazine for posterity in 1982, Brown faces\u00a0taller odds than\u00a0Herv\u00e9 Villechaize\u00a0<\/strong>at a slam dunk competition.\u00a0\u00a0Still, some are questioning the national GOP’s disinterest in the campaign<\/a>.\u00a0 NRO<\/em>‘s Jim Geraghty\u00a0gamely expresses the NRSC and GOP’s\u00a0likely logic\u00a0of throwing away\u00a0good money after bad considering\u00a0the simple political math<\/a> that Massachusetts presents any\u00a0right-of-center candidacy:<\/p>\n But to illustrate how tough the odds are for Brown, let’s pretend that every <\/em>registered Republican in the state, as of 2008, shows up and votes for him. And let us pretend that the independents split evenly, and that only one third<\/em> of the state’s Democrats show up and vote for Coakley.<\/p>\n Under that scenario, Coakley still wins by about 1,045 votes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n With Brown trailing Coakley in cash-on-hand alone by nearly $1.6 million, in addition to having been already outraised $4 million to $400,000, there’s little logic at hand for any national Republican organization to spend the kind of money necessary to deliver, in the words of one snubbed Bay State Republican, “a level playing field.”\u00a0 Had the state’s\u00a0beleagued GOP recruited\u00a0any one of the\u00a0higher-profile candidates mentioned months ago, including Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling or former White House chief of staff Andy Card, funds would likely be more forthcoming.\u00a0 \u00a0Such realities explain the lack of organizational support for Brown – but it doesn’t explain why conservative activists have wiped Brown from their radar.<\/p>\n Massachusetts may be solidly blue but the Democratic establishment has rarely been less popular.\u00a0 Gov. Deval Patrick, who successfully broke a 20-year streak of moderate Republican governors with his victory in 2006, has a 47% disapproval rating<\/a>, which is actually a slight improvement.\u00a0 The state’s health care system, once seen as the template for Congress’ national health care reform,\u00a0has been\u00a0seen as successful by only 26%<\/a> while\u00a0merely 10% believe the\u00a0system has actually improved the\u00a0quality of care.\u00a0 Throw in your run-of-the-mill scandals <\/a>that happen in states that lack much competition at the polls and at least a pyrrhic Democratic victory seems possible.<\/p>\n The same scenario played out three years ago as Republican Jim Ogonowski nearly upset <\/a>Niki Tsongas in Massachusetts’ 5th Congressional district.\u00a0 Despite being outspent 4-to-1 and residing in a district where only 18% of voters were registered Republicans, Ogonowski captured 46% of the vote.\u00a0 And while the numbers once again\u00a0sizably favor the Democrat,\u00a0the intangibles love the underdog<\/a>:<\/p>\n [T]he number of votes there are in the Democratic Primary is usually the high-water mark of what the Democrat will get. In 2001 special congressional election, Steven Lynch got more votes in the Democratic Primary than he received in the General Election. \u00a0Fewer people voted for Nikki Tsongas in 2007 in the general than voted in the Democratic Primary. Despite Brown’s potential importance, few conservative activists and fewer conservative dollars have rushed to his aid.\u00a0 But recriminations are likely to abound should Brown pull closer than expected come\u00a0Election\u00a0Day, leaving the RNC and NRSC in an impossible position –\u00a0spend money only to\u00a0see Brown lose in a modest landslide or\u00a0save for\u00a02010 while likely losing\u00a0dollars from yet another\u00a0blog-inspired embargo\u00a0on\u00a0committee contributions.<\/p>\n
\n…Coakley has basically shut-down and set the cruise control. She thinks she’s already won. Her base is no longer motivated. Scott is Senator 41. Obama’s Agenda screeches to a halt if Scott is elected . . .<\/p><\/blockquote>\n