{"id":75352,"date":"2020-09-21T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-21T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=75352"},"modified":"2020-09-20T10:20:10","modified_gmt":"2020-09-20T15:20:10","slug":"per-capita","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=75352","title":{"rendered":"Per Capita"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n

I don’t think per-capita death rates is the correct measure.<\/p>

Covid does not strike all age groups equally.\u00a0 Minnesota had zero Second
Graders die of Covid under a strict lock down, Wisconsin had zero Second
Graders die of Covid under no lock down.\u00a0 Does this tell us anything
about lock downs?\u00a0 No, because Second Graders don’t die of Covid.\u00a0 They
are not the at-risk pool. Old people are the at-risk pool.<\/p>

Also, nobody retires from Florida to move to New York, it’s the other
way around.\u00a0 Comparing state death rates per capita fails to take into
account that a larger percentage of the population in retirement states
are old people, which gives those states a larger at-risk pool.<\/p>

A fair comparison is the result of policies in
high-death-rate-per-at-risk-pool states versus
low-death-rate-per-at-risk-pool states.\u00a0 It takes a fair amount of math.<\/p>

Minnesota has 5,600,000 people of whom 16% are over 65 [1].<\/p>

Florida has 21,500,000 people of whom 21% are over 65. [2]<\/p>

Deaths by Covid are broken into Age and Sex by State. [3]\u00a0\u00a0 Yes, all the
numbers are phony, but they’re equally phony.<\/p>

Doing the math:<\/p>

Minnesota has 695 Covid deaths in Men aged 65 and up; 816 Covid deaths
in Women aged 65 and up; total 1,511 Covid deaths in the at-risk
population.\u00a0 1511 -:- 5,600,000 = .0002698.<\/p>

Florida has 4,177 Covid Deaths in Men aged 65 and up; 3,701 Covid deaths
in Women aged 65 and up; total 7,878 Covid deaths in the at-risk
population.\u00a0 7,878 -:- 21,500,000 = .0003664<\/p>

Florida is doing worse than Minnesota, which I did not expect. That
doesn’t mean our strict lock-down made any difference, since college
kids partying on the beach generally have little contact with Grandma in
the nursing home, but the statistics don’t help our case as much as I
thought they would.<\/p>

Unless I made a mistake, which is totally possible.\u00a0 Check the math
yourself.<\/p>

Joe Doakes<\/p>

[1]\u00a0https:\/\/www.census.gov\/quickfacts\/MN<\/a><\/p>

[2]\u00a0https:\/\/www.census.gov\/quickfacts\/fact\/table\/FL\/PST045219<\/a><\/p>

[3]
https:\/\/data.cdc.gov\/NCHS\/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S\/9bhg-hcku\/data<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Fatalities per capita may not be ideal – but it’s the closest thing to a measurement that is simultaneously common enough to be a mathematical lingua franca <\/em>and compares apples to apples, as it were. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Point taken. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I don’t think per-capita death rates is the correct measure. Covid does not strike all age groups equally.\u00a0 Minnesota had zero SecondGraders die of Covid under a strict lock down, Wisconsin had zero SecondGraders die of Covid under no lock down.\u00a0 Does this tell us anythingabout lock downs?\u00a0 No, because Second Graders don’t die of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[416],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=75352"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75353,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75352\/revisions\/75353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=75352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=75352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=75352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}