{"id":73955,"date":"2020-04-27T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=73955"},"modified":"2020-04-26T09:36:50","modified_gmt":"2020-04-26T14:36:50","slug":"the-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=73955","title":{"rendered":"“The Surge”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n

No surge = no lock down.\u00a0 Open Up!<\/p>

Governor Walz justified the initial Go To Your Room! order because the\u00a0computer model predicted a surge of Covid cases coming to overwhelm the hospitals.\u00a0<\/p>

Doctors were scrambling to add ICU beds to handle the surge of cases\u00a0expected to hit in Late March-Early April.<\/a><\/p>

Estimates of the incubation period for\u00a0Covid vary between 2-14 days\u00a0<\/a>with 5 days being the most common.\u00a0 If there was a pool of infected people in Early March getting read to overwhelm the hospitals in Late March – Early April, they’d have arrived by now (it’s April 26th as I write).\u00a0 They did not.<\/p>

Governor Walz explained the need to extend his order until May: the surge had been delayed by his order and now would\u00a0arrive in Late May-June-possibly July<\/a>.\u00a0 The computer model predicted it with a 95% confidence level.\u00a0 If he rescinded the order now, the surge would come rushing forward, overwhelming the hospitals.
But the 14-day incubation period is unchanged.\u00a0 Where are all the infected people\u00a0hiding?\u00a0 If they were sick enough in Early March to\u00a0overwhelm us in Late March, why haven’t they surged already?\u00a0 Why July – what are they waiting for?\u00a0
Ah, but just because people have no symptoms, doesn’t mean they can’t spread it to other people who Will develop\u00a0symptoms.\u00a0 Mild cases, or asymptomatic patients, can cause a surge,\u00a0as reported by a study of Chinese cases<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>

Yes, but for how long?\u00a0 A person gets the virus, an active case but no symptoms, she can spread it to others, but how long is she contagious?\u00a0 Doesn’t she eventually get over the virus, develop antibodies, become inactive, stop spreading?\u00a0 \u00a0I can’t find a link answering that question but it’s critical to the next phase of the inquiry<\/p>

The new excuse to extend the order is Testing and Tracking everyone so we can identify pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and quarantine them to prevent them from infecting other people who will surge into the hospitals,\u00a0overwhelming them.\u00a0\u00a0Tracking is necessary before the state can re-open for business<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

But people who are not contagious can’t spread the virus so tracking them won’t help stop the surge.\u00a0 \u00a0Only a permanently infectious asymptomatic super spreader could have remained contagious since March and also remained hidden this long.\u00a0 Is that who we’re searching for?\u00a0 How many are there?\u00a0 Is it even possible?\u00a0 I suspect not, even though I can’t prove it, because otherwise authorities would explain that’s who they’re searching for – Covid Mary – be on the lookout.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>

As it stands, there is no surge and nobody to cause a surge: not here, not anywhere in America, not anywhere in the world. The virus is burning itself out, as they all do, until cold-and-flu seasons hits next Winter, as it always does.\u00a0<\/p>

There is no June surge coming.\u00a0 Somebody is lying.\u00a0 Could be the Governor, could be the U of M who developed the model, could be the World Health Organization, doesn’t matter.\u00a0 What matters is that the incubation period is 14 days.\u00a0 Anybody who had the virus before we went into lock-down, would have symptoms or developed the antibodies by now.\u00a0\u00a0Without a surge, there’s no justification\u00a0for house arrest.\u00a0 Lift the order now.\u00a0<\/p>

Joe Doakes<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No surge = no lock down.\u00a0 Open Up! Governor Walz justified the initial Go To Your Room! order because the\u00a0computer model predicted a surge of Covid cases coming to overwhelm the hospitals.\u00a0 Doctors were scrambling to add ICU beds to handle the surge of cases\u00a0expected to hit in Late March-Early April. Estimates of the incubation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=73955"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73956,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73955\/revisions\/73956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=73955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=73955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=73955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}