{"id":7306,"date":"2009-12-18T13:05:06","date_gmt":"2009-12-18T18:05:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=7306"},"modified":"2011-09-01T08:00:38","modified_gmt":"2011-09-01T13:00:38","slug":"7306","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=7306","title":{"rendered":"Early Handicapping"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mark McKinnon at The Daily Beast indulges in the wonk&#8217;s favorite weekend pastime &#8211; putting together lists.<\/p>\n<p>This one &#8211; the top ten GOP contenders.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s got Mitt at the top of the list, followed by Palin and Pawlenty.\u00a0 Not a bad start.<\/p>\n<p>Moving down the list, though, you get the impression he&#8217;s trying to gin up some discussion (and apparently it worked, since I&#8217;m linking him&#8230;).<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>4. John Thune<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If he would run, John Thune could be the Bob McDonnell of the 2012 GOP field.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In a field as deep with center-right conservatives, John Thune is impressive &#8211; but in a field where &#8220;center-right&#8221; includes Romney, Pawlenty, I see Thune &#8211; a freshman Senator, let&#8217;s not forget &#8211; being far down the crowd.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>5. Mike Huckabee<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Put a fork in him. While I agree with McKinnon &#8211; the clemency decision on Clemmons, who got a life-plus-life sentence for crimes committed when he wasn&#8217;t even of legal age; statistically, it wasnt&#8217; a bad bet, although that&#8217;s no comfort for the families of the four cops he allegedly killed.<\/p>\n<p>Much worse, in a just world?\u00a0 He&#8217;s no more fiscally conservative than George W. Bush was.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>6. Joe Scarborough<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Make it stop.<\/p>\n<p>Next &#8211; evidence that McKinnon spends too much time among wonks:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>7. Haley Barbour<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Don\u2019t laugh. Haley\u2019s as wily a fox as anyone out there prowling the political countryside these days. He\u2019s smart, strategic and has been around the rodeo a very long time. Sure he\u2019s a caricature of the classic Southern politician: old, large, white, honey-lipped, and a former lobbyist to boot. But if voters are really tired of Obama, they\u2019ll be looking for the mirror opposite of the man occupying the Oval Office. And that would clearly be Haley.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Barbour is a highly-qualified candidate; he&#8217;s an opposite of Obama in more than just the cosmetics that seem to enthrall McKinnon.\u00a0 He&#8217;s a blazingly capable executive; he&#8217;s <em>accomplished <\/em>things &#8211; his record as governor of Mississippi stands next to Romney&#8217;s and Pawlenty&#8217;s in their states.<\/p>\n<p>But is he the opposite of Obama?\u00a0 Not in the way voters, especially voters who&#8217;ve genuinely soured on Obama <em>or <\/em>Republicans who want to right the ship, will care about.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>8. Newt Gingrich<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It will never happen.\u00a0 Please stop talking about it.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>9. Mitch Daniels<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Daniels has been an extraordinarily successful and effective governor in Indiana, a state that has been recently more blue than red. A no-nonsense, tell-it-like-is conservative, Daniels cruised to re-election by 18 points last year when Obama was winning the state.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;d not thought about Daniels much &#8211; and I think his name recognition is, if anything, lower than Pawlenty&#8217;s (and Governor Pawlenty&#8217;s been working hard on raising his, in a way Daniels has not, at least at this point in the campaign, for what that&#8217;s worth, which isn&#8217;t much).<\/p>\n<p>But here, I think McKinnon&#8217;s onto something:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>10. Rick Perry<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The only real question about Texas Governor Rick Perry is why he hasn\u2019t been on any lists until now. He\u2019s already the longest-serving governor in Texas history and may be headed for his third term next fall. Veteran Texas political observer Paul Burka makes a compelling <a href=\"http:\/\/www.texasmonthly.com\/blogs\/burkablog\/?p=5262\" target=\"_blank\">case<\/a> for why he should be considered:<\/p>\n<p>1. Unlike Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, he is still in office.<br \/>\n2. He is the longest-serving governor in Texas history.<br \/>\n3. He is governor of the biggest red state that sends the most delegates to the Republican convention.<br \/>\n4. He has the best conservative record of any contender.<br \/>\n5. He has assiduously courted key figures in the Republican establishment.<br \/>\n6. The Murdoch news empire loves him. He is the beneficiary of puff pieces in The Wall Street Journal and softball questions on Fox News.<br \/>\n7. He has an extensive fundraising apparatus in Texas that is capable of raking in enough cash to make the race, and he is now in charge of finance for the Republican Governors Association, giving him access to the GOP\u2019s big national donors.<br \/>\n8. He has not one but two strong messages. The first: Washington is corrupt to the core and out of touch with Main Street. The second: the Texas economic miracle.<br \/>\n9. He was quick to understand the significance of the tea party movement and attended many of the early gatherings.<br \/>\n10. With rare exceptions (such as the HPV vaccine controversy), he almost never deviates from the conservative line.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We can go on from there: he&#8217;s got <em>huge <\/em>cred among the Tea-party (aka &#8220;Real American&#8221;) crowd, <em>and <\/em>he&#8217;s got two-plus successful terms as governor of a huge state.\u00a0 He&#8217;s a &#8220;Tenther&#8221;, who exudes just the right tinge of &#8220;don&#8217;t tread on me&#8221; that a big chunk of this country wants (and gets from Sarah Palin), combined providing an undeniable conservative alternative that, with a little work, can convince the center to move right (rather than vice versa &#8211; which is what people like Huckabee and Scarborough are all about).<\/p>\n<p>Perry&#8217;s moved onto my personal long list over this past month or two.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond that?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Watch List:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2022 Ron Paul:<\/strong> Where are you? The environment is ripe for a libertarian like Paul to stir the tea party pot in 2012.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>When you can have a Rick Perry &#8211; who brings most of the &#8220;libertarian&#8221;, and none of the &#8220;loose cannon&#8221;, why even mess with Paul?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u2022 Jeb Bush:<\/strong> The first son of George H.W. Bush was supposed to be the 43rd President. He is widely respected by conservatives and it\u2019s unlikely, but not impossible, that he could be the 45th, or 46th. And there\u2019s always his telegenic Hispanic son, George P., who could keep the job in the family as 47.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Let&#8217;s give this generation a rest, and maybe give P at shot at it someday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mark McKinnon at The Daily Beast indulges in the wonk&#8217;s favorite weekend pastime &#8211; putting together lists. This one &#8211; the top ten GOP contenders. He&#8217;s got Mitt at the top of the list, followed by Palin and Pawlenty.\u00a0 Not a bad start. Moving down the list, though, you get the impression he&#8217;s trying to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56,144,13],"tags":[154],"class_list":["post-7306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-12","category-governor","category-republicans","tag-pawlenty"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7306"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7306\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22564,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7306\/revisions\/22564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}