{"id":56596,"date":"2015-12-14T11:30:27","date_gmt":"2015-12-14T17:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=56596"},"modified":"2016-06-14T10:27:20","modified_gmt":"2016-06-14T15:27:20","slug":"gun-homicide-comparing-apples-and-apples-part-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=56596","title":{"rendered":"Gun Homicide:  Comparing Apples And Apples, Part II"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=56595\">Last Friday<\/a>, we noted that to the US&#8217;s murder rate of 3.8 per 100,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate\">ranks 121st in the world overall<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Which, to &#8220;Gun Safety&#8221; advocates, is just wrong; they insist on constraining the comparison to only &#8220;western, industrialized&#8221; countries &#8211; as if the life of a\u00a0human being in Honduras or South Africa is somehow worth less, or their murder is of less weight than someone from Highland Park. \u00a0 And I noted that the reasons for the comparison are to make the US look as bad as possible, against small, socially-homogenous countries like Denmark and Norway and Japan.<\/p>\n<p>But I noted that among larger, westernized nations with at least a passing notion of human rights and any kind of social diversity at all, the US still fares pretty well<\/p>\n<p>But then, I thought &#8211; what if we factor out\u00a0the parts of US society that have the major crime problems? \u00a0What happens then?<\/p>\n<p><strong>In The City<\/strong>: \u00a0First, I thought, we should take a look at America&#8217;s cities.<\/p>\n<p>For whatever reason, cities have almost always had a disproportionate murder rate.<\/p>\n<p>So why is that?<\/p>\n<p>Well, that question is one that keeps scads of otherwise unemployable sociologists hard at work. \u00a0 But it&#8217;s no secret that American cities are faced with three pathologies:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A &#8220;War on Drugs&#8221; that creates a lucrative black market in which someone with no education can make a stupendous income &#8211; provided he or she is willing to defend that income by all means necessary. The estimates of how many murders occur due to the &#8220;drug war&#8221; vary, but range as high as half.<\/li>\n<li>An &#8220;urban culture&#8221; that glorifies violence.<\/li>\n<li>Decades of social service agencies using the inner cities as &#8220;warehouses for the poor&#8221;, for bureaucratic and political reasons. \u00a0And while there&#8217;s little direct\u00a0causal link between poverty and crime, long-term grinding poverty certainly provides fertile soil for growing crime.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Also, of the top 50\u00a0cities in terms of homicide rate\u00a0&#8211; accounting for 11.3% of the population of the US &#8211;\u00a0all but a very vanishing few\u00a0are Democrat-controlled. \u00a0This isn&#8217;t so much intended to politicize the issue as to point out that single-party-dominated governments are\u00a0<em>always\u00a0<\/em>less effective at carrying out government&#8217;s valid jobs, like law enforcement.<\/p>\n<p>But the fact is, some American cities have <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate_(2014)\">downright third-world murder rates<\/a>: \u00a0Saint Louis tops the list in 2014, with almost 50 homicides per 100,000. \u00a0Detroit clocks in at 43.5. \u00a0 We have 25 cities with murder rates above 10\/100,000 &#8211; triple the national average.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, if you take the ten US cities with the highest murder rates -Saint Louis,\u00a0Detroit<strong>,\u00a0<\/strong>New Orleans,\u00a0Baltmore,\u00a0Newark,\u00a0Buffalo,\u00a0Pittsburgh,\u00a0Memphis,\u00a0Atlanta, Cincinnati &#8211; they add up to about 1% of the entire population of the US &#8211; but they account for a solid 10% of all homicides in America.<\/p>\n<p>But let&#8217;s go bigger than that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 300;\">The fifty\u00a0American cities with the highest murder rates &#8211; from Saint Louis down\u00a0to Charlotte, NC\u00a0(5.5\/100,000) together accounted for approximately\u00a04.426\u00a0murders in 2015 &#8211; about 3,000\u00a0of them likely with firearms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Math<\/strong>: \u00a0So when you take the top fifty\u00a0US cities in terms of murder rate, with their 34,7521.052\u00a0people (11.3% of the population), and their approximately\u00a04,530\u00a0homicides from the US&#8217;s population and total number of murders, and subtract them from the rest of the United states, you get about 284 million people, and a murder rate of just under 2.68\u00a0per 100.000 people. \u00a0That&#8217;s roughly equal to the murder rate in Hungary\u00a0&#8211; it ranks the US at #145 worldwide.<\/p>\n<p>It also means that about 11% of the entire US population commits about 38% of the murders.<\/p>\n<p>But the problems of American urban society aren&#8217;t the only ones driving up\u00a0the United States&#8217; homicide rate.<\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow, we&#8217;ll look at a problem that dates back to before there\u00a0<em>were\u00a0<\/em>cities, or a United States for that matter.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li>Last Friday: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=56595\">Intro<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Today: \u00a0The effect urban crime has on America&#8217;s murder rate.<\/li>\n<li>Tomorrow: \u00a0We&#8217;ll look at the murder rate in the Deep South.<\/li>\n<li>Wednesday: \u00a0We&#8217;ll see what the US&#8217; murder rate would be without its biggest social pathologies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Where The Raw Murder Numbers Came From<\/strong>: \u00a0Murder numbers by city are approximate; rather than look up fifty different city&#8217;s murder records for 2014, I multiplied (City Population\/100,000) by each city&#8217;s murder rate. \u00a0The homicide numbers\u00a0for each city should be within 1-2 of actual totals for the year.<\/p>\n<p>By the way &#8211; justifiable homicides were not, as far as I know, systematically excluded. \u00a0But we&#8217;re polishing the cannonball, here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last Friday, we noted that to the US&#8217;s murder rate of 3.8 per 100,000 ranks 121st in the world overall. Which, to &#8220;Gun Safety&#8221; advocates, is just wrong; they insist on constraining the comparison to only &#8220;western, industrialized&#8221; countries &#8211; as if the life of a\u00a0human being in Honduras or South Africa is somehow worth [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,22],"tags":[360],"class_list":["post-56596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crime-and-punishment","category-victim-disarmament","tag-gun-homicide-apples-and-apples"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56596"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56685,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56596\/revisions\/56685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}