Turnout was low at Tuesday’s primaries.\u00a0 Was a bad omen for the GOP, or just another data point with some interesting context?<\/p>\n
Bad Omen<\/strong>:\u00a0 Michael Brodkorb at Politics.mn throws up a warning sign<\/a>:<\/p>\n Back in February, in my pre-precinct caucus primer, I encouraged people to compare the number of total attendees at precinct caucuses for the DFL and GOP. If the numbers were close, I wrote this could be a sign of malaise amongst Republican activists. Even with multiple candidates not abiding by the Republican Party of Minnesota\u2019s endorsement for statewide offices, Republicans should have more attendees at their precinct caucuses. But they didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n At the time of precinct caucuses, the Minnesota DFL has only one contested statewide race, as Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie is not seeking re-election. Governor Mark Dayton and U.S. Senator Al Franken faced no opposition within the DFL Party. There were also 12 Republican statewide campaigns \u2013 six for governor and six for the U.S. Senate. Republicans also had contested endorsement races in the 6th, 2nd, and 1st Congressional Districts of Minnesota. The battles between the Republicans candidates for congress and statewide office should have encouraged more participation by Republicans on the night of precinct caucuses than Democrats. But the Minnesota DFL won the night. This should be a warning sign for Republicans.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Michael’s knows his politics.\u00a0 I’d be hard-pressed to argue, much.\u00a0 But to play devil’s advocate – what percentage of the state’s total population is “the GOP base” that turns out for primaries?\u00a0<\/p>\n And among those who are the “soft-core” base – the ones that’ll do primaries, but not usually caucuses?\u00a0 Does a fractious, contentious primary make them more or less likely to come to the polls for\u00a0a primary?<\/p>\n Finally – there were some crowded races (and at the legislative level, some interesting ones).\u00a0 But one might be forgiven for thinking…:<\/p>\n Again, I’m just devils’ advocatin’.<\/p>\n Interesting Context<\/strong>:\u00a0 On the other hand, Andy Aplikowski at ResFor – <\/em>a person from whom I’ve learned more about political number-crunching than any single person in the MNGOP – writes<\/a>:<\/p>\n All the focus on failure is on Republican turnout.<\/p>\n 2010 GOP<\/strong><\/p>\n Candidate Totals<\/p>\n OLE\u2019 SAVIOR AND TODD \u201cELVIS\u201d ANDERSON 4396<\/p>\n LESLIE DAVIS AND GREGORY K. SODERBERG 8598<\/p>\n BOB CARNEY JR AND WILLIAM MCGAUGHEY 9856<\/p>\n TOM EMMER AND ANNETTE T. MEEKS 107558<\/p>\n Total 130408<\/span><\/p>\n 2014 GOP<\/strong><\/p>\n Candidate Totals<\/p>\n MARTY SEIFERT AND PAM MYHRA 38798<\/p>\n KURT ZELLERS AND DEAN SIMPSON 43991<\/p>\n MERRILL ANDERSON AND MARK ANDERSON 7008<\/p>\n JEFF JOHNSON AND BILL KUISLE 55813<\/p>\n SCOTT HONOUR AND KARIN HOUSLEY 38331<\/p>\n Total 183941<\/span><\/p>\n Wait, the GOP turned out 53,000 more voters than in 2010.<\/p>\n I think why you see some people trying to paint the narrative of GOP voter apathy is because DFL apathy has reached toxic levels.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n 2010 DFL<\/strong><\/p>\n Candidate Totals<\/p>\n MARGARET ANDERSON KELLIHER AND JOHN GUNYOU 175767<\/p>\n PETER IDUSOGIE AND LADY JAYNE FONTAINE 3123<\/p>\n MATT ENTENZA AND ROBYNE ROBINSON 80509<\/p>\n MARK DAYTON AND YVONNE PRETTNER SOLON 182738<\/p>\n Total 442137<\/span><\/p>\n 2014 DFL Totals<\/strong><\/p>\n BILL DAHN AND JAMES VIGLIOTTI 4896<\/p>\n LESLIE DAVIS AND GREGORY K. SODERBERG 8529<\/p>\n MARK DAYTON AND TINA SMITH 177737<\/p>\n Total 191162<\/span><\/p>\n The DFL saw a 251,000 drop off in voter turnout and barely drew more voters than the GOP in 2014.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n