{"id":4368,"date":"2009-03-10T12:59:58","date_gmt":"2009-03-10T17:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=4368"},"modified":"2009-03-10T13:01:53","modified_gmt":"2009-03-10T18:01:53","slug":"the-seed-of-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=4368","title":{"rendered":"The Seed of Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

I have a theory; a hunch is a better moniker, that our economic recovery will germinate from a small and isolated seed of confidence. To paraphrase, extrapolate and else wise apply the teachings of a favorite advisor and author of mine, Nick Murray<\/a>, our economic recovery’s timing is unknowable<\/em>, it’s manifestation inevitable<\/em>.<\/p>\n

We can undeniably trace the origins of our current crisis to a seed delivered to the fertile soil of our economy via a turd laid by liberal Democrats of the Carter era<\/a>, and germinated by the blue thumbs of the Clinton era. My hunch is that our nation’s, and in turn the world’s economies will be restored in much the same way.<\/p>\n

That seed however, will be seemingly small and insignificant in its time but will retrospectively be shown to be the beginning of the end of the worst crisis since the Great Depression.<\/p>\n

I could be; probably am wrong – but this morning I read this…<\/p>\n

Stocks Post Best Rally of 2009 on Improving Citigroup Outlook<\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n

Citigroup Inc. said it was having its best quarter since 2007, spurring speculation the worst of the banking crisis is over. Treasuries fell, while oil and copper gained.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

and this…<\/p>\n

US Consumer Confidence Edges Up in March<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

…it occurred to me that this is a very large, visible bank exhibiting a rare and precious commodity of late: profits and optimism and at the same time consumer confidence exhibits a slight, if temporary uptick.<\/p>\n

Now don’t be fooled for a moment into thinking that our nation’s financial crisis is going to vanish overnight. Rather, be prepared for multiple fits and starts – to reuse the President’s recent and widely panned phraseology – but I believe, even if this <\/em>is not that <\/em>seed, a future forensic analysis of our inevitable recovery will reveal an initial catalyst such as we have seen today.<\/p>\n

An ever-so-slight restoration of confidence will lead to a loosening of lending and spending which at the same time will allow real estate and the financial markets to establish their lows in earnest.<\/p>\n

An excruciatingly slow, uneven but evident march to recovery will ensue.<\/p>\n

And the World will breathe a collective sigh of relief.<\/p>\n

Or…<\/p>\n

…none of the above is coming and we’re all screwed.<\/p>\n

I suffer from Optimism, despite all it’s flaws and blind spots, so I’m going with the former.<\/p>\n

…for now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have a theory; a hunch is a better moniker, that our economic recovery will germinate from a small and isolated seed of confidence. To paraphrase, extrapolate and else wise apply the teachings of a favorite advisor and author of mine, Nick Murray, our economic recovery’s timing is unknowable, it’s manifestation inevitable. We can undeniably […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":228,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy-and-the-market","category-the-great-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/228"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}