{"id":37314,"date":"2013-07-17T12:00:26","date_gmt":"2013-07-17T17:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=37314"},"modified":"2013-07-17T12:48:15","modified_gmt":"2013-07-17T17:48:15","slug":"numb3rs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=37314","title":{"rendered":"Numb3rs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0I&#8217;ve <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=14526\">bagged on Nate Silver <\/a>in the past.\u00a0 His methodology ends up calling races accurately &#8211; but, I suspect, it&#8217;s mostly through the benefit of a point spread that would forgive a lot of errors.\u00a0 My favorite example &#8211; his 2010 prediction that Governor Dayton would win by six points (with an eight point margin of error).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And so I&#8217;m not going to put in a big champagne order just yet.<\/p>\n<p>But he&#8217;s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2013\/07\/15\/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup\/\">smelling Democrat blood in the water next year.\u00a0 In the <em>Senate<\/em><\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u00a0A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year\u2019s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"http:\/\/graphics8.nytimes.com\/images\/2013\/07\/15\/us\/politics\/newsens2014\/newsens2014-tmagSF.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"362\" height=\"850\" \/><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>After last year, I&#8217;m keeping all pollling at arm&#8217;s length, of course.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0I&#8217;ve bagged on Nate Silver in the past.\u00a0 His methodology ends up calling races accurately &#8211; but, I suspect, it&#8217;s mostly through the benefit of a point spread that would forgive a lot of errors.\u00a0 My favorite example &#8211; his 2010 prediction that Governor Dayton would win by six points (with an eight point margin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-14"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37314"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37336,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37314\/revisions\/37336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}