{"id":3679,"date":"2008-11-21T06:41:50","date_gmt":"2008-11-21T11:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3679"},"modified":"2008-11-21T06:41:50","modified_gmt":"2008-11-21T11:41:50","slug":"sht-meet-fan-nice-to-meet-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3679","title":{"rendered":"Sh*t, Meet Fan. Nice to Meet You."},"content":{"rendered":"

The Dow broke through 8000 in earnest yesterday, moving below the “50% down” benchmark that some analysts believe is\/was the line in the sand between a recession and a really really bad recession; maybe, not likely, even a depression, a term that has evaded technical definition (or at least a consensus thereof) due thankfully to its rarity.<\/p>\n

Congress showed GM the Door<\/a>. The market showed the rest of us the bird. Word is once US economic data is revised, it will show that a recession was upon us as of January. Not 2009. 2008.<\/p>\n

Which may sound like good news if recessions still last an average of eleven months. If that were true, the market would have started to build back as another rule of thumb is that the market turns when a recession is about 55% done. As it stands, this <\/em>recession could last as long as twenty four months using that rule of thumb and given the market’s failure to launch.<\/p>\n

I get asked the question “What kind of news will it take to make the stock market go up?”<\/p>\n

As much as I would advise investors to ignore the market right now I have to at the same time advise them that the market being on the rise will be the news<\/em>. It will signal the midpoint of the recession and that the market is starting to price in an anticipated rise in earnings and profits. Problem is, we will only know this once the trend is established in earnest; it will manifest itself only in hindsight;\u00a0which is to say there is no way to predict when it will <\/em>happen.<\/p>\n

The market usually tells us what will<\/em> happen, not what is<\/em> happening or what has<\/em> happened (save a terrorist attack or some other external event).<\/p>\n

What to do?<\/p>\n

Hang in there. For investors with long-term time horizons of at least ten years, this market may represent a significant opportunity to buy in. Increase monthly or payroll contributions – at least temporarily – to average in lower.<\/p>\n

Does that mean that the market is done melting? Maybe not. But it is almost certainly closer to the bottom than the top.<\/p>\n

As Warren Buffet says, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.<\/p>\n

…and buckle your seat belt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Dow broke through 8000 in earnest yesterday, moving below the “50% down” benchmark that some analysts believe is\/was the line in the sand between a recession and a really really bad recession; maybe, not likely, even a depression, a term that has evaded technical definition (or at least a consensus thereof) due thankfully to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":228,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy-and-the-market"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/228"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3679\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}