{"id":3551,"date":"2008-10-28T08:00:52","date_gmt":"2008-10-28T13:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3551"},"modified":"2008-10-27T18:57:42","modified_gmt":"2008-10-27T23:57:42","slug":"our-clairvoyant-overlords","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3551","title":{"rendered":"Our Clairvoyant Overlords"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last weekend, JRoosh <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3538\">greeted the news<\/a> of the NTSB&#8217;s draft report on the 35W Bridge collapse appropriately, noting that &#8211; at least in the context of the chorus of recrimination that the likes of E-Tink and Alice &#8220;The Phantom&#8221; Hausman and Margaret Kelliher and Nick Coleman dumped on him &#8211; the Governor was exonerated.<\/p>\n<p>When Jeff Rosenberg at <em>The Daily Liberal<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/tcdailyliberal.com\/blog\/2008\/10\/how-a-smart-governor-could-have-prevented-the-i-35w-collapse\/\">noted<\/a> that Sporty the Dog from <em>Clicking Stool<\/em> had &#8220;taken Roosh to task&#8221; over his piece, naturally, I had to check it out.<\/p>\n<p>As with most leftybloggers attempts to discuss history, engineering and other more-or-less empirical subjects, it was a big mistake.<\/p>\n<p>Leftybloggers, like the political and media leaders whose shrieking points so many of them so unthinkingly ape, aren&#8217;t big on getting context right.\u00a0 Sporty <a href=\"http:\/\/thecuckingstool.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/how-much-time-have-i-got-doc.html\">tries to frame the issue in the form of a doctor&#8217;s visit<\/a>, and concludes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The article in the Strib that J refers to is in the paper today. The headline? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.startribune.com\/local\/33308279.html?elr=KArks:DCiUHc3E7_V_nDaycUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU\" target=\"_blank\"><font color=\"#de7008\">I-35W bridge was doomed from the start<\/font><\/a>. It was a design defect!<\/p>\n<p>We are, of course, all doomed from the start. But that doesn&#8217;t means we don&#8217;t get physicals, submit to humiliating examinations, and pay the medical profession to try to keep us healthy.<\/p>\n<p>In the case of the bridge, the Pawlenty administration also fingered the whopper, got the test results, and opted for the cosmetic solution.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Except that there was no &#8220;doctor&#8217;s visit&#8221; saying that the bridge, as in Sporty&#8217;s example, was terminally ill.\u00a0 To run with the (bad, misplaced) metaphor, there were merely checkups, telling the bridge, like a lot of 40-year-olds, that it was crumbling around the edges a bit; that the wear and tear of daily stress was taking its toll.\u00a0 The bridge at 40 was doing better than some other bridges &#8211; MNDoT rated the Cayuga and Lafayette bridges, among others in the metro, much worse as of July 31, 2007,\u00a0much more likely to die younger than the 35W bridge.\u00a0 <em>Not<\/em> that it was especially more terminally ill than any other bridge of its age.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The fact is, nobody knew 40 years ago &#8211; or two years ago, for that matter &#8211; that the bridge was suffering from anything much worse than&#8230;being a 40 year old bridge.\u00a0 Yes, there were concerns &#8211; rusty gussets, suspect piers, etc.\u00a0\u00a0But the thing that killed it &#8211; mistakes in engineering calculations?\u00a0 That was a bolt from the blue &#8211; an undetected aneurism or clot or stroke that <em>could <\/em>have been found, maybe, given one of two things:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A degree of dedication to checking and re-checking design assumptions, calculations and material specs from every potentially suspect bridge in the state (read:\u00a0 every bridge in the state), aggressively trying to predict the unpredictable.<\/li>\n<li>Clairvoyance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Going back and checking over all of those designs, all of their engineering and data &#8211; especially those made in the era before all of these things were done electronically &#8211;\u00a0would be\u00a0analogous to spending every morning for months at a time at the doctor&#8217;s office, getting prodded and poked and having latex-clad fingers shoved hither and yon by a staff of doctors dedicated to eradicating every possible &#8220;what if&#8221; in your physiology &#8211; and it&#8217;d be about as proportionally expensive.<\/p>\n<p>As far as clairvoyance goes &#8211; if government could manage that, would our mortgage system be in the mess it&#8217;s in today?<\/p>\n<p>To have done something about the 35W bridge\u2019s problems, there would have had to have been a <em>huge <\/em>effort to go back and re-examine the design of every element of the construction of these bridges; the calculations behind the design of each structural member (hundreds or thousands for each structure), their material specs and various rates of deterioration &#8211; all of which, by the way, requires a LOT of reconstructive research, since the original calculations and material specs may or may not be available.\u00a0 It&#8217;d be the equivalent of having a squad of doctors trying to <em>rule out<\/em> every possible malady you <em>could<\/em> have.<\/p>\n<p>Think <em>your <\/em>HMO would cover that?<\/p>\n<p>This hideously expensive process, by the way, would take a LOT of money away from every political body\u2019s main goal in transportation spending; building monuments to the perspicacity of the politicans authorizing the spending. Building trains sends tingles up DFLers legs; lane miles do the same for Republicans. Watching hordes of engineers poring over moldy blueprints and Material Data sheets is no monument to anyone.\u00a0 It&#8217;s just <em>maintenance.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The conclusion?\u00a0 Well, other than &#8220;never pay attention to leftybloggers when they try to talk history, science, engineering, or&#8230;well, really, anything&#8221;, I guess it&#8217;s this&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;well, no.\u00a0 That kinda covered it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last weekend, JRoosh greeted the news of the NTSB&#8217;s draft report on the 35W Bridge collapse appropriately, noting that &#8211; at least in the context of the chorus of recrimination that the likes of E-Tink and Alice &#8220;The Phantom&#8221; Hausman and Margaret Kelliher and Nick Coleman dumped on him &#8211; the Governor was exonerated. When [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,36,49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogs","category-bridge-collapse","category-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}