{"id":3303,"date":"2008-09-15T05:48:46","date_gmt":"2008-09-15T10:48:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3303"},"modified":"2008-09-14T09:32:45","modified_gmt":"2008-09-14T14:32:45","slug":"handicapping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=3303","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping"},"content":{"rendered":"

In January of 2004, when we had the fateful lunch with Hugh Hewitt<\/a> out at the late, great Billy’s Lighthouse in Minnetonka that directly led to the NARN going on the air in the first place, Hugh asked us for our electoral vote predictions. I forget the exact numbers – but other than bobbling Minnesota and Iowa (I thought MN would flip to Bush and Iowa would vote for Kerry; I obviously had it inverted) I pretty much nailed it. I’m not even sure why; I just had a pretty secure sense of how states were going go roll.<\/p>\n

I should point out that my only real guide for this sort of prediction is very-loosely-informed intuition. I’m no analyst. And yet that “gut feeling” often does the trick for me.<\/p>\n

I don’t really have a sense of where this election is going. Not yet. The Obama phenomenon was obviously going to change things bigtime. The Palin phenomenon – and the larger strategy of which it’s a part, the use of the red\/blue divide as an active wedge – is changing it again; while a few weeks ago the lefties were making hopeful noises about flipping parts of the Great Plains, I really just don’t see it happening; Obama’s closed up shop in South Dakota and Montana, and he’s withering in North Dakota. (Hah hah hah!)<\/p>\n

And now – well, there’s big news from the polls<\/a> today, according to Ed:<\/p>\n

As if the Barack Obama needed any more bad news, the St. Petersburg Times<\/a> and Zogby<\/a> both deliver cause for pessimism at Team O. Florida polling shows that despite spending millions in advertising in the Sunshine State and a delay in advertising for McCain, Obama is in worse position that John Kerry at the same time in 2004. Zogby has new polling that shows Obama now trails in Pennsylvania, a must-hold state for the Democrats.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Zogby is, of course, about as reliable as a meth addict’s 1972 Vega. But let’s assume for a moment he’s not entirely off his nut, and that Ed’s continuing analysis is right on. Using Opinion Journal’s excellent Electoral College calculator<\/a>, let’s work out a couple of scenarios.<\/p>\n

First: Let’s take Zogby at his word: Obama flips Nevada, Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina, and holds Michigan. Mac\/Palin flips Pennsylvania and holds Virginia.
\n<\/p>\n

Too close for comfort, but certainly liveable.<\/p>\n

And if Mac can squeedge out a win in Michigan?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

I did all of the above before we got the blockbuster news that Minnesota – which Rasmusson on Friday called “Likely Democrat” – is, according to traditionally-inaccurate but usually DFL-skewed Minnesota Poll – showing Mac and Obama tied<\/a> in Minnesota.<\/p>\n

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.<\/p>\n

Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, the poll likely reflects — at least in part — the traditional bounce candidates enjoy after being in the spotlight.<\/p>\n

Part of the rise in McCain’s fortunes nationally has been attributed to his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a move that has energized his party’s conservative base.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So hypothetically – and this is extremely <\/em>hypothetical – let’s just say Mac manages to flip Minnesota, and that flip takes one of the neighboring states with it. If Minnesota goes red, I’d suspect one of the neighboring states, Iowa or Wisconsin would, but let’s leave them out for the moment. Taking Minnesota and holding North Carolina would hold onto a McCain victory even if Obama took both <\/em>Pennsylvania and <\/em>Michigan.<\/p>\n

I’m going to err on the side of caution; it’s still Obama’s race to lose. Make no mistake; the Republicans are the underdogs<\/em>. Polling aside, Obama’s got months of momentum to overcome; see McCain\/Palin as the X-wing pilots and Obama as the Death Star. Mac ‘n Sarah are still battling uphill against not only that status quo, but the legacy of ’06. Can Mac and Sarah refocus the campaign?<\/p>\n

Well, that’s up to all of us, isn’t it?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In January of 2004, when we had the fateful lunch with Hugh Hewitt out at the late, great Billy’s Lighthouse in Minnetonka that directly led to the NARN going on the air in the first place, Hugh asked us for our electoral vote predictions. I forget the exact numbers – but other than bobbling Minnesota […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-08"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3303\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}