{"id":32246,"date":"2012-12-05T05:15:41","date_gmt":"2012-12-05T11:15:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=32246"},"modified":"2013-10-02T09:09:07","modified_gmt":"2013-10-02T14:09:07","slug":"correlation-causation-whatever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=32246","title":{"rendered":"Correlation, Causation &#8211; Whatever"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>To: \u00a0Dave Mindeman<br \/>\nFrom: \u00a0Mitch Berg, Non-Physicist<br \/>\nRe: \u00a0Elementary Logic<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Mindeman,<\/p>\n<p>I had yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice for breakfast this morning. \u00a0Then the sun rose.<\/p>\n<p>Clearly, the yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice caused the sun to rise.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, I owe it to humanity to have yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice\u00a0tomorrow, lest the world be plunged into darkness.<\/p>\n<p>You might respond &#8220;but Mitch, your breakfast didn&#8217;t cause the sun to rise!&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>To which I&#8217;d reply &#8220;No, it is a FACT! \u00a0I had my\u00a0yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice. \u00a0And then the sun rose!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>You might reply &#8220;Mitch, that&#8217;s just stupid. \u00a0You&#8217;re taking a correlation between two factoids and claiming causation. \u00a0You&#8217;re ignoring the fact that the earth is rotating on its axis once a day, giving the sun the appearance of rising in the east&#8230;&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Dave, Dave, Dave. \u00a0Bubbeleh. \u00a0You&#8217;re rationalizing. \u00a0And clearly afraid of something. \u00a0Now, if you don&#8217;t mind, I&#8217;m going to go play &#8220;Moby Dick&#8221; on the tabletop with pencils, to prevent the volcano from blowing up under Los Angeles. \u00a0Again&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>That is all.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Well, no. \u00a0It&#8217;s not &#8220;all&#8221;. \u00a0It&#8217;s just the beginning.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve gone back and forth a couple of times now; you <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mnpact.org\/sblog\/blog.php?id=3579\">insisted<\/a> that business does better with Democrats in charge; I <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=32084\">showed you that there was a metric poo-ton of context<\/a>\u00a0that showed the claim was, let&#8217;s just say, overly broad. \u00a0You responded with a &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mnpact.org\/sblog\/blog.php?id=3581\">blizzard of facts<\/a>&#8220;; I showed you that the &#8220;facts&#8221; were, in fact, context-free non-sequiturs.<\/p>\n<p>You&#8217;ve responded by saying I was &#8220;rationalizing&#8221;. \u00a0Well, you&#8217;re close. \u00a0&#8220;Rationalizing&#8221; comes from the same Latin root as &#8220;reasoning&#8221;. \u00a0I&#8217;ll give you partial credit.<\/p>\n<p>You&#8217;ve shown &#8220;facts&#8221; on the same level of detail as my yogurt and orange juice claim; I&#8217;ve called it out, twice. \u00a0And I could do it a third time&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;but you&#8217;ll find out soon enough.<\/p>\n<p>UPDATE: \u00a0Not only is quoting stock market index numbers without context misleading, but <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-12-02\/stocks-markets-that-flummox-masses-do-no-one-any-good.html\">the numbers themselves are no longer especially dispositive<\/a> as indicators of economic health.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To: \u00a0Dave Mindeman From: \u00a0Mitch Berg, Non-Physicist Re: \u00a0Elementary Logic Mr. Mindeman, I had yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice for breakfast this morning. \u00a0Then the sun rose. Clearly, the yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice caused the sun to rise. Thus, I owe it to humanity to have yogurt, oatmeal\u00a0and orange juice\u00a0tomorrow, lest the world be plunged into [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,69],"tags":[249],"class_list":["post-32246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy-and-the-market","category-socialism","tag-open-letters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32246"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32248,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32246\/revisions\/32248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}