{"id":31262,"date":"2012-10-24T06:00:41","date_gmt":"2012-10-24T11:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=31262"},"modified":"2020-09-20T21:37:51","modified_gmt":"2020-09-21T02:37:51","slug":"house","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=31262","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping The House"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the “Left MN” blog seems to be a re-boot of the late, demented but unlamented “Cucking Stool”, the site’s associate blogger Tony Petrangelo is one of those rare Minnesota leftybloggers who ought not be under police surveillance – a compliment I give rarely (becaiuse it’s rarely deserved). \u00a0Over the years, he’s written some excellent stuff about polling, redistricting, and the mechanics of politics.<\/p>\n

And this past week, he’s been releasing a set of predictions for the MN House<\/a> and Senate<\/a>. \u00a0He’s done this before, by the way:<\/p>\n

This is my second time doing race ratings of Minnesota legislative elections, the first time being in 2010. Here are links to my Senate ratings<\/a> and House ratings<\/a> from that cycle. I used a Safe\/Tilt\/Toss-up ratings scale and prior to the election I rated the Senate seats as 31 total DFL seats (Safe+Tilt), 19 total GOP seats and 17 Toss-ups.<\/p>\n

The GOP won all 19 seats I had them winning. They also won every single race I had listed as a toss-up. They also won a race I had listed as Tilt DFL, the Don Betzold \u2013 Pam Wolf race. Clearly 2010 was a wave year for the GOP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Still, as Petrangelo notes, it was a game effort:<\/p>\n

That said, I don\u2019t think my ratings did particularly bad especially since there was no sort of adjustment incorporated to account for the broader political context of the election.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We’ll come back to that.<\/p>\n

As with my previous foray into race ratings I\u2019ve kept this years version to an entirely numbers based exercise. Meaning at no point is a race rating the way it is because I made a subjective judgement about the quality of a candidate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There’s some more methodology talk in there, which you should oughtta read, because it’s useful stuff and I don’t disagree with any of it.<\/p>\n

Which is notable, in that my own ratings below are largely the opposite.<\/p>\n

Well, not entirely; in many, maybe most cases, I agree with Petrangelo. \u00a0In many others, I made a different prediction because of some qualitative aspect to the race that isn’t readily apparent in the empirical numbers Petrangelo used. \u00a0A race held after a redistricting is going to toss a lot of those empirical measures up in the air – as will a wave election (as Petrangelo discovered in 2010). \u00a0While this may not be a wave year, there’s a dynamic at work that I think will affect a lot of these races.<\/p>\n

I’ll do the House of Representatives first. \u00a0I’ll include the House District, the DFLer, the GOPer, Petrangelo’s rating, and mine; if mine differ from Petrangelo’s they’ll be in bold.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
HD<\/strong><\/td>\nDFL Candidate<\/strong><\/td>\nGOP Candidate<\/strong><\/td>\nPetrangelo<\/strong><\/td>\nBerg<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
01A<\/td>\nBruce Patterson<\/td>\nDan Fabian<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nI’m thinking Fabian’s pretty safe. I’ll call it Likely GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
01B<\/td>\nMarc DeMers<\/td>\nDebra Kiel<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nIncumbency, Obama’s weak coat-tails and a strong Byberg bid makes this Leans GOP<\/strong>\u00a0in my book<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
02A<\/td>\nRoger Erickson<\/td>\nDavid Hancock<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’m going to say Hancock holds this one. \u00a0Leans GOP<\/strong>.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
02B<\/td>\nBrita Sailer<\/td>\nSteve Green<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up. \u00a0I’d say Sailer’s incumbency would count, but I don’t think the DFL’s that strong in the area.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
03A<\/td>\nDavid Dill<\/td>\nJim Tuomala<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
03B<\/td>\nMary Murphy<\/td>\nKeith MacDonald<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
04A<\/td>\nBen Lien<\/td>\nTravis Reimche<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
04B<\/td>\nPaul Marquart<\/td>\nPaul Sandman<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
05A<\/td>\nJohn Persell<\/td>\nLarry Howes<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’m going to stay on “toss-up” for this one.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
05B<\/td>\nTom Anzelc<\/td>\nCarolyn McElfatrick<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nCall me pollyanna, but I’m going with\u00a0Lean GOP<\/strong>. \u00a0Just a hunch.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
06A<\/td>\nCarly Melin<\/td>\nRoger Weber<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
06B<\/td>\nJason Metsa<\/td>\nJesse Colangelo<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
07A<\/td>\nThomas Huntley<\/td>\nTherese Bower<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
07B<\/td>\nErik Simonson<\/td>\nTravis Silvers<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
08A<\/td>\nChet Nettestad<\/td>\nBud Nornes<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
08B<\/td>\nBob Cunniff<\/td>\nMary Franson<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09A<\/td>\nDon Niles<\/td>\nMark Anderson<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09B<\/td>\nAdrian Welle<\/td>\nRon Kresha<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10A<\/td>\nJohn Ward<\/td>\nChris Kellett<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nTough one. \u00a0I’d like to make this “Leans GOP”, but Kellett’s a newcomer.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10B<\/td>\nJoe Radinovich<\/td>\nDale Lueck<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11A<\/td>\nMike Sundin<\/td>\nJim Putnam<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11B<\/td>\nTim Faust<\/td>\nBen Wiener<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12A<\/td>\nJay McNamar<\/td>\nScott Dutcher<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12B<\/td>\nRick Rosenfield<\/td>\nPaul Anderson<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13A<\/td>\nRichard Bohannon<\/td>\nJeff Howe<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13B<\/td>\nShannon Schroeder<\/td>\nTim O\u2019Driscoll<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14A<\/td>\nAnne Nolan<\/td>\nSteve Gottwalt<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14B<\/td>\nZachary Dorholt<\/td>\nKing Banaian<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’m going with Lean GOP<\/strong>. Redistricting, incumbency, the SCTrib endorsement and a great record will make this an easier race than 2010. \u00a0Hopefully.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15A<\/td>\nJoe Walsh<\/td>\nSondra Erickson<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15B<\/td>\nBrian Johnson<\/td>\nJim Newberger<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16A<\/td>\nAl Kruse<\/td>\nChris Swedzinski<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16B<\/td>\nJames Kanne<\/td>\nPaul Torkelson<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17A<\/td>\nAndrew Falk<\/td>\nTim Miller<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17B<\/td>\nMary Sawatzky<\/td>\nBruce Vogel<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18A<\/td>\nNancy Larson<\/td>\nDean Urdahl<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18B<\/td>\nLogan Campa<\/td>\nGlenn Gruenhagen<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19A<\/td>\nTerry Morrow<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19B<\/td>\nKathy Brynaert<\/td>\nThad Shunkwiler<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20A<\/td>\nRyan Wolf<\/td>\nKelby Woodard<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20B<\/td>\nDavid Bly<\/td>\nBrian Wermerskirchen<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21A<\/td>\nJohn Bacon<\/td>\nTim Kelly<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21B<\/td>\nBruce Montplaisir<\/td>\nSteve Drazkowski<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nI’ll go with\u00a0Safe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22A<\/td>\nEugene Short<\/td>\nJoe Schomacker<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22B<\/td>\nCheryl Avenel-Navara<\/td>\nRod Hamilton<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n#<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23A<\/td>\nKevin Labenz<\/td>\nBob Gunther<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23B<\/td>\n<\/td>\nTony Cornish<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24A<\/td>\nCraig Brenden<\/td>\nJohn Petersburg<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24B<\/td>\nPatti Fritz<\/td>\nDan Kaiser<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25A<\/td>\nJohn Vossen<\/td>\nDuane Quam<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nI’ll call this\u00a0Likely GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25B<\/td>\nKim Norton<\/td>\nMelissa Valeriano<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26A<\/td>\nTina Liebling<\/td>\nBreanna Bly<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26B<\/td>\nPatrick Stallman<\/td>\nMike Benson<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27A<\/td>\nShannon Savick<\/td>\nRich Murray<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27B<\/td>\nJeanne Poppe<\/td>\nNathan Neitzell<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28A<\/td>\nGene Pelowski<\/td>\nAdam Pace<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28B<\/td>\nKen Tschumper<\/td>\nGreg Davids<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29A<\/td>\nSusann Dye<\/td>\nJoe McDonald<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29B<\/td>\nBarrett Chrissis<\/td>\nMarion O\u2019Neill<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30A<\/td>\nHolly Neuman<\/td>\nNick Zerwas<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30B<\/td>\nSharon Shimek<\/td>\nDavid Fitzsimmons<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31A<\/td>\nRyan Fiereck<\/td>\nKurt Daudt<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31B<\/td>\nLouise Woodberry<\/td>\nTom Hackbarth<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32A<\/td>\nPaul Gammel<\/td>\nBrian Johnson<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32B<\/td>\nRick Olseen<\/td>\nBob Barrett<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33A<\/td>\nTodd Mikkelson<\/td>\nJerry Hertaus<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33B<\/td>\nDenise Bader<\/td>\nCindy Pugh<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34A<\/td>\nAdam Fisher<\/td>\nJoyce Peppin<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34B<\/td>\nDavid Hoden<\/td>\nKurt Zellers<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35A<\/td>\nAndy Hillebregt<\/td>\nJim Abeler<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35B<\/td>\nSam Scott<\/td>\nPeggy Scott<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36A<\/td>\nGrace Baltich<\/td>\nMark Uglem<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36B<\/td>\nMelissa Hortman<\/td>\nAndrew Reinhardt<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37A<\/td>\nJerry Newton<\/td>\nMandy Benz<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37B<\/td>\nJon Chlebeck<\/td>\nTim Sanders<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38A<\/td>\nPatrick Davern<\/td>\nLinda Runbeck<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38B<\/td>\nGreg Pariseau<\/td>\nMatt Dean<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nI’ll go with Safe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39A<\/td>\nJohn Bruno<\/td>\nBob Dettmer<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n‘ll call this Safe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39B<\/td>\nTom Degree<\/td>\nKathy Lohmer<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nGiven Obama’s non-coattails and an excellent campaign, I’ll run with\u00a0Lean GOP\u00a0<\/strong>on this one.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40A<\/td>\nMichael Nelson<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40B<\/td>\nDebra Hilstrom<\/td>\nRichard Cushing<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41A<\/td>\nConnie Bernardy<\/td>\nDale Helm<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41B<\/td>\nCarolyn Laine<\/td>\nLaura Palmer<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42A<\/td>\nBarb Yarusso<\/td>\nRuss Bertsch<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’ll call this one\u00a0Lean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42B<\/td>\nJason Isaacson<\/td>\nKen Rubenzer<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43A<\/td>\nPeter Fischer<\/td>\nStacey Stout<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nThis is a\u00a0Toss-Up<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43B<\/td>\nLeon Lillie<\/td>\nKevin Klein<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44A<\/td>\nAudrey Britton<\/td>\nSarah Anderson<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up (UPDATE: \u00a0Not sure how this one escaped me. \u00a0Sarah Anderson is dynamite, and I’d actually change this one to Safe GOP, except that the western subs are weird and I don’t always understand them. \u00a0Let’s be conservative and call it “Leans GOP<\/strong><\/span>“)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44B<\/td>\nJohn Benson<\/td>\nMark Stefan<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45A<\/td>\nLyndon Carlson<\/td>\nJeff Pauley<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nLean DFL, sorry to say.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45B<\/td>\nMike Freiberg<\/td>\nReid Johnson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Liely DF46A<\/td>\nRyan Winkler<\/td>\nJohn Swanson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46B<\/td>\nSteve Simon<\/td>\nDavid Arvidson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47A<\/td>\nKeith Pickering<\/td>\nErnie Leidiger<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47B<\/td>\n<\/td>\nJoe Hoppe<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48A<\/td>\nYvonne Selcer<\/td>\nKirk Stensrud<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48B<\/td>\nTori Hill<\/td>\nJenifer Loon<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49A<\/td>\nRon Erhardt<\/td>\nBill Glahn<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong>; Erhard’s the wrong guy in the wrong place at the wrong time.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49B<\/td>\nPaul Rosenthal<\/td>\nTerry Jacobson<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50A<\/td>\nLinda Slocum<\/td>\nCraig Marston<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50B<\/td>\nAnn Lenczewski<\/td>\nRichard Bohnen<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
51A<\/td>\nSandra Masin<\/td>\nDiane Anderson<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
51B<\/td>\nLaurie Halverson<\/td>\nDoug Wardlow<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52A<\/td>\nRick Hansen<\/td>\nJoe Blum<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52B<\/td>\nJoe Atkins<\/td>\nPaul Tuschy<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nI’ll call this\u00a0Lean DFL<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
53A<\/td>\nJoAnn Ward<\/td>\nPam Cunningham<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nThis is a\u00a0Toss-up<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
53B<\/td>\nAnn Marie Metzger<\/td>\nAndrea Kieffer<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nI’m calling this one\u00a0Likely GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54A<\/td>\nDan Schoen<\/td>\nDerrick Lehrke<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54B<\/td>\nJoanna Bayers<\/td>\nDenny McNamara<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
55A<\/td>\nChuck Berg<\/td>\nMichael Beard<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
55B<\/td>\nTravis Burton<\/td>\nTony Albright<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
56A<\/td>\nDave Jensen<\/td>\nPam Myhra<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
56B<\/td>\nWill Morgan<\/td>\nRoz Peterson<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
57A<\/td>\nRoberta Gibbons<\/td>\nTara Mack<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lean 57B<\/td>\nJeff Wilfart<\/td>\nAnna Wills<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
58A<\/td>\nColin Lee<\/td>\nMary Liz Holberg<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
58B<\/td>\nJim Arlt<\/td>\nPat Garofalo<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S59A<\/td>\nJoe Mullery<\/td>\nCindy Lilly<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
59B<\/td>\nRaymond Dehn<\/td>\nGary Mazzotta<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
60A<\/td>\nDiane Loeffler<\/td>\nBrent Millsop<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
60B<\/td>\nPhyllis Kahn<\/td>\nKody Zalewski<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
61A<\/td>\nFrank Hornstein<\/td>\nDevin Gawnemark<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
61B<\/td>\nPaul Thissen<\/td>\nNate Atkins<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
62A<\/td>\nKaren Clark<\/td>\nKurtis Hanna<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
62B<\/td>\nSusan Allen<\/td>\nTom Johnson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
63A<\/td>\nJim Davnie<\/td>\nKirk Brink<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
63B<\/td>\nJean Wagenius<\/td>\nMatt Ashley<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
64A<\/td>\nErin Murphy<\/td>\nAndrew Ojeda<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
64B<\/td>\nMichael Paymar<\/td>\nBrandon Carmack<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
65A<\/td>\nRena Moran<\/td>\nDaniel Lipp<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL, more’s the pity<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
65B<\/td>\nCarlos Mariani<\/td>\nCarlos Conway<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
66A<\/td>\nAlice Hausman<\/td>\nMark Fotsch<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
66B<\/td>\nJohn Lesch<\/td>\nBen Blomgren<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67A<\/td>\nTim Mahoney<\/td>\nCathy Hennelly<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67B<\/td>\nSheldon Johnson<\/td>\nJohn Quinn<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Senate tomorrow!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the “Left MN” blog seems to be a re-boot of the late, demented but unlamented “Cucking Stool”, the site’s associate blogger Tony Petrangelo is one of those rare Minnesota leftybloggers who ought not be under police surveillance – a compliment I give rarely (becaiuse it’s rarely deserved). \u00a0Over the years, he’s written some excellent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[132],"tags":[422,213],"class_list":["post-31262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mn-legislature","tag-kim-norton-idiot","tag-winkler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31262"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31262\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74829,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31262\/revisions\/74829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}