{"id":31260,"date":"2012-10-25T06:00:13","date_gmt":"2012-10-25T11:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=31260"},"modified":"2012-10-23T17:23:38","modified_gmt":"2012-10-23T22:23:38","slug":"handicapping-the-senate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=31260","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping The Senate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, we teed up with the House.<\/p>\n

Today – using Tony Petrangelo’s district by district ratings<\/a> as a jumping off point – I’ll take my whack at the Senate.<\/p>\n

As noted yesterday, my predictions are largely – but not purely – subjective. \u00a0That being said, my subjective predictions, when they’re not woefully off (Mark Kennedy in 2006) are usually pretty dead-on (I nailed the 2004 presidential election within eight electoral votes).<\/p>\n

As always, you get what you pay for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/strong><\/td>\nDFL Candidate<\/strong><\/td>\nGOP Candidate<\/strong><\/td>\nPetrangelo<\/strong><\/td>\nBerg <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nLeRoy Stumpf<\/td>\nSteve Nordhagen<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’d say incumbency would give SD1 a DFL lean – but not this year.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nRod Skoe<\/td>\nDennis Moser<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nSee SD1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nThomas Bakk<\/td>\nJennifer Havlick<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nKent Eken<\/td>\nPhil Hansen<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nTom Saxhaug<\/td>\nJohn Carlson<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nThe fact that this is a “Toss-up” alone should make it\u00a0Lean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nDavid Tomassoni<\/td>\nBrandon Anderson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nRoger Reinert<\/td>\nTyler Verry<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nDan Skogen<\/td>\nBill Ingebrigtsen<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nI’ll call this one\u00a0Safe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nAl Doty<\/td>\nPaul Gazelka<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nTaylor Stevenson<\/td>\nCarrie Ruud<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’ll make this one\u00a0Leans GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\nTony Lourey<\/td>\nBill Saumer<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nI’m going to go with Safe DFL<\/strong>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\nJohn Schultz<\/td>\nTorrey Westrom<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\nPeggy Boeck<\/td>\nMichelle Fischbach<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nThis seat is\u00a0Safe GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\nJerry McCarter<\/td>\nJohn Pederson<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLeans GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\nRon Thiessen<\/td>\nDave Brown<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\nTed Suss<\/td>\nGary Dahms<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>\nLyle Koenen<\/td>\nJoe Gimse<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>\nSteve Schiroo<\/td>\nScott Newman<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>\nKathy Sheran<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\nKevin Dahle<\/td>\nMike Dudley<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>\nMatt Schmit<\/td>\nJohn Howe<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>\nAlan Oberloh<\/td>\nBill Weber<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>\nPaul Marquardt<\/td>\nJulie Rosen<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>\nVicki Jensen<\/td>\nVern Swedin<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>\nJudy Ohly<\/td>\nDavid Senjem<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>\nKen Moen<\/td>\nCarla Nelson<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>\nDan Sparks<\/td>\nLinden Anderson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>\nJack Krage<\/td>\nJeremy Miller<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>\nBrian Doran<\/td>\nBruce Anderson<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>\nPaul Perovich<\/td>\nMary Kiffmeyer<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>\nMike Starr<\/td>\nMichelle Benson<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>\nJeske Noordergraaf<\/td>\nSean Nienow<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nI’m going to say Nienow is\u00a0Safe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>\nJudy Rogosheske<\/td>\nDavid Osmek<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP!<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>\nSharon Bahensky<\/td>\nWarren Limmer<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nThis is\u00a0Likely GOP\u00a0<\/strong>at the very worst.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/td>\nPeter Perovich<\/td>\nBranden Petersen<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>\nJohn Hoffman<\/td>\nBenjamin Kruse<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>\nAlice Johnson<\/td>\nPam Wolf<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/td>\nTimothy Henderson<\/td>\nRoger Chamberlain<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\nLikely GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39<\/td>\nJulie Bunn<\/td>\nKarin Housley<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40<\/td>\nChris Eaton<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>\nBarbara Goodwin<\/td>\nGina Bauman<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>\nBev Scalze<\/td>\nApril King<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nScalse’s name recognition vs. King’s work ethic and timely message? \u00a0Unfortunately, still a toss up.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>\nCharles Wiger<\/td>\nDuane Johnson<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>\nTerri Bonoff<\/td>\nDavid Gaither<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nLean DFL, although I’m looking for a reason to call it a tosser.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>\nAnn Rest<\/td>\nBlair Tremere<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL if only due to inertia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>\nRon Latz<\/td>\nRoger Champagne<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>\nJames Weygand<\/td>\nJulianne Ortman<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48<\/td>\nLaurie McKendry<\/td>\nDavid Hann<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’ll strongly break with Petrangelo on this one; Hann is\u00a0Likely GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49<\/td>\nMelisa Franzen<\/td>\nKeith Downey<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’m going with\u00a0Lean GOP<\/strong>, in part due to the Third not being nearly as purple as they think it is, in part because Obama will have no coattails, and in part because the DFL’s Barnes campaign has been such an inept train wreck.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>\nMelissa Wiklund<\/td>\nVern Wilcox<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
51<\/td>\nJim Carlson<\/td>\nTed Daley<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’ll say\u00a0Lean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52<\/td>\nJames Metzen<\/td>\nDwight Rabuse<\/td>\nLean DFL<\/td>\nI’ll go with Lean DFL too, much as I wish my former AM1280 colleague Rabuse the best.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
53<\/td>\nSusan Kent<\/td>\nTed Lillie<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nVery tough race, but I think Lillie pulls it out. \u00a0Leans GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54<\/td>\nKatie Sieben<\/td>\nJanis Quinlan<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\nLikely DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
55<\/td>\nJosh Ondich<\/td>\nEric Pratt<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
56<\/td>\nLeon Thurman<\/td>\nDan Hall<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nI’m going to go with\u00a0Likely GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
57<\/td>\nGreg Clausen<\/td>\nPat Hall<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\nI’ll run with\u00a0Lean GOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
58<\/td>\nAndrew Brobston<\/td>\nDave Thompson<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
59<\/td>\nBobby Joe Champion<\/td>\nJim Lilly<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
60<\/td>\nKari Dziedzic<\/td>\nMark Lazarchic<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
61<\/td>\nScott Dibble<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
62<\/td>\nJeff Hayden<\/td>\nEric Blair<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
63<\/td>\nPatricia Torres Ray<\/td>\nPatrick Marron<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
64<\/td>\nDick Cohen<\/td>\nSharon Anderson<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
65<\/td>\nSandy Pappas<\/td>\nRick Karschnia<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
66<\/td>\nJohn Marty<\/td>\nWayde Brooks<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67<\/td>\nFoung Hawj<\/td>\nMike Capistrant<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\nSafe DFL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Tomorrow, the breakdown for the next round in the Legislature. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, we teed up with the House. Today – using Tony Petrangelo’s district by district ratings as a jumping off point – I’ll take my whack at the Senate. As noted yesterday, my predictions are largely – but not purely – subjective. \u00a0That being said, my subjective predictions, when they’re not woefully off (Mark Kennedy […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[132],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mn-legislature"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31260"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31296,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31260\/revisions\/31296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}