{"id":30630,"date":"2012-09-24T12:00:27","date_gmt":"2012-09-24T17:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=30630"},"modified":"2020-12-21T05:30:03","modified_gmt":"2020-12-21T11:30:03","slug":"chanting-points-memo-minnesota-poll-has-your-delivery-of-sandbags-right-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=30630","title":{"rendered":"Chanting Points Memo: “Minnesota Poll” Has Your Delivery Of Sandbags Right Here"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, the\u00a0Star Tribune\u00a0<\/em>“Minnesota Poll” also delivered its mid-cycle tally of support for the Voter ID Amendment<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And coming barely a week after the generally-accurate Survey USA poll showing Voter ID passing by a 2:1 margin, the Strib\u00a0<\/em>would have you believe…:<\/p>\n

Slightly more than half of likely voters polled — 52 percent — want the changes built around a photo ID requirement, while 44 percent oppose them and 4 percent are undecided.<\/p>\n

That is a far cry from the 80 percent support for photo ID in a May 2011 Minnesota Poll, when the issue was debated as a change in state law. Support among Democrats has cratered during a year marked by court battles, all-night legislative debates and charges that the GOP is attempting to suppress Democratic votes.<\/p>\n

Republicans and independents continue to strongly back the proposal, which passed the Legislature this year without a single DFL vote.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Wow. \u00a0Sounds close!<\/p>\n

Sort of; if you accept the validity of the numbers (and unless the DFL is headed for a blowout win, you must\u00a0never\u00a0<\/em>accept the validity of the “Minnesota Poll’s” numbers), and every single undecided voter today voted “no”, the measure would pass in a squeaker.<\/p>\n

But are the numbers valid? \u00a0 \u00a0And by “valid”, I don’t mean “did they do the math right”, I mean “did they poll a representative sample of Minnesotans?”<\/p>\n

To find that out, you have to do something that almost nobody in the\u00a0Strib’s\u00a0<\/em>reading audience does; look at the partisan breakdown of the survey’s respondents. \u00a0Which is in a link buried in the middle of a sidebar<\/a>, between the main article and the cloud of ads and clutter to the right of the page, far-removed from the headline and the lede graf. \u00a0Which takes you to a page that notes (with emphasis added):<\/p>\n

\u2022 The self-identified party affiliation of the random sample is: 41 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican<\/strong> and 31 percent independent or other.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That’s right – as with the Marriage Amendment numbers we looked at this morning (it’s the same survey), the\u00a0Strib\u00a0<\/em>wants you to believe…<\/p>\n

…well, no. \u00a0I’m not sure they “want” anyone to believe anything. \u00a0I’m sure they want people to read the headling and the “almost tied!” lede, and not dig too far into the numbers.<\/p>\n

It’s part of the Democrat’s “Low-Information Voters” campaign; focus on voters who don’t dig for facts, who accept what the media tells them, who vote based on the last chanting point they heard.<\/p>\n

Fearless prediction<\/strong>: \u00a0On November 4, the Strib\u00a0<\/em>will release a “Minnesota Poll” that shows the Voter ID Amendment slightly behind, using a partisan breakdown with an absurdly high number of DFLers. \u00a0 It’ll be done as a sort of positive bandwagon effect – to make DFLers feel there’s a point to come out and vote against the Voter ID Amendment (and for Obama, Klobuchar, and the rest of the DFL slate, natch).<\/p>\n

And it will be a complete lie. \u00a0Voter ID will pass by 20 points, and this cycle of polling will disappear down the media memory hole like all the rest of them.<\/p>\n

Question<\/strong>: \u00a0Given that its entire purpose seems to be to build DFL bandwagons and discourage conservative voters, when do we start calling the “Minnesota Poll” what it seems to be – a form of vote suppression?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, the\u00a0Star Tribune\u00a0“Minnesota Poll” also delivered its mid-cycle tally of support for the Voter ID Amendment. And coming barely a week after the generally-accurate Survey USA poll showing Voter ID passing by a 2:1 margin, the Strib\u00a0would have you believe…: Slightly more than half of likely voters polled — 52 percent — want the changes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56,108,4,130,230],"tags":[262,208,120,157,198],"class_list":["post-30630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-12","category-chanting-points-memo","category-media","category-tc-media-bias","category-the-fact-check-scam","tag-minnesota-poll","tag-a-klo","tag-polling","tag-vote-fraud","tag-voter-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30630"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30630\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38348,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30630\/revisions\/38348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}