{"id":28092,"date":"2012-05-23T11:58:31","date_gmt":"2012-05-23T16:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=28092"},"modified":"2012-05-23T11:25:56","modified_gmt":"2012-05-23T16:25:56","slug":"28092","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=28092","title":{"rendered":"The Wave Of The Future Has Not Yet Crashed On The Beach Of Public Opinion"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two years ago, during the run-up to the Minnesota Gubernatorial election, I <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=13792\">published the results of some GOP-friendly internal polling<\/a> that showed that Tom Emmer was leaving votes on the table, not so much for opposing gay marriage per se, but by not pushing a referendum on the issue (as opposed to the legislature or the courts deciding it). \u00a0 Although I and many of Emmer&#8217;s libertarian base considered this a feature rather than a bug, it retrospect it may have been a bit of personal and philosophical integrity but a political mistake.<\/p>\n<p>If it wasn&#8217;t a fluke.<\/p>\n<p>And a new Quinnipiac poll <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/politico44\/2012\/05\/florida-poll-quarter-of-voters-less-inclined-to-back-124311.html\">indicates it wasn&#8217;t<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Quinnipac&#8217;s latest poll of the Sunshine State finds that 25 percent of voters say Obama&#8217;s endorsement of gay marriage makes them less likely to vote for him. On the other hand, 11 percent say that it makes them more likely to vote for him.<\/p>\n<p>Among independents, 23 percent say that they&#8217;re less likely to vote for Obama over same sex marriage. Older voters (55 and older), born-again evangelical Christians, lower income voters and military veterans are all more likely than other demographic groups to say that Obama&#8217;s backing of same-sex marriage will sway them towards Romney.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And even a low-information DFL voter knows that 23 is bigger than 11. \u00a0Probably.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, the Q-poll (insert all May polling disclaimers here) is bullish on Mitt:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>On the whole, Romney beats President Obama by six points in Florida, leading 47 to 41 percent over the incumbent president.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We all know what polls in May are worth. \u00a0I&#8217;m disinclined to put much stock in any of them until Labor Day, when all the low-information voters (mostly Democrats) start putting their voting caps on.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it&#8217;s a bit of a morale booster, seeing the <em>Democrats <\/em>racking up the unforced errors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two years ago, during the run-up to the Minnesota Gubernatorial election, I published the results of some GOP-friendly internal polling that showed that Tom Emmer was leaving votes on the table, not so much for opposing gay marriage per se, but by not pushing a referendum on the issue (as opposed to the legislature or [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-12","category-culture-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28092"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28092\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28094,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28092\/revisions\/28094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}