{"id":2582,"date":"2008-05-19T05:27:28","date_gmt":"2008-05-19T10:27:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=2582"},"modified":"2008-05-19T05:27:28","modified_gmt":"2008-05-19T10:27:28","slug":"dismal-purple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=2582","title":{"rendered":"Dismal Purple?"},"content":{"rendered":"

We’re into election season – and when you’re a conservative blogger, one of the highlights of the season is the “Minnesota Poll”.<\/p>\n

The poll has a long history of comic inaccuracy<\/a> – inevitably in favor of Democrats.<\/p>\n

Now, in 2006 they didn’t get a lot of focus, because the elections themselves went to solidly Tic everywhere.\u00a0 This covered up the fact that the polls seemed to the not-so-casual observer to have spotted a couple of points to every DFL\/Tic candidate in recent memory; if the final Minnesota polls before the last several elections had been correct, we’d be talking today about Senators Wynia and Mondale, Governors Humphrey, Moe and Hatch, Representative Luther and Wetterling…<\/p>\n

So this next bit from the latest poll<\/a> is probably good news for John McCain:<\/p>\n

Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton enjoy comfortable leads over Republican John McCain in Minnesota, a state widely expected to be a hard-fought battleground in November.<\/p>\n

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found that Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 38 percent among the state’s registered voters. Clinton leads the Arizona senator 49 percent to 40 percent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of course the poll’s methodology or raw numbers are nowhere in evidence; the MNPoll has been caught grossly oversampling Democrats for as long as I’ve been following it.<\/p>\n

And that’s just important when you’re dealing with politicians whose entire strength is among the “base” – which it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to note isn’t Mac’s game anyway:<\/p>\n

Independents, who will almost certainly be crucial to victory in November, may still be largely up for grabs, as none of the three candidates can claim majority support among that group.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It’s another season; it’s another chapter in the book “How Worthless is the MNPoll?”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’re into election season – and when you’re a conservative blogger, one of the highlights of the season is the “Minnesota Poll”. The poll has a long history of comic inaccuracy – inevitably in favor of Democrats. Now, in 2006 they didn’t get a lot of focus, because the elections themselves went to solidly Tic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-08","category-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2582\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}