{"id":25776,"date":"2012-01-23T07:39:42","date_gmt":"2012-01-23T13:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=25776"},"modified":"2012-01-23T07:39:42","modified_gmt":"2012-01-23T13:39:42","slug":"the-primary-route","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=25776","title":{"rendered":"The Primary Route"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If there&#8217;s been one constant in this ever-changing Republican presidential primary season, it&#8217;s that every candidate has looked like<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Icarus\"> Icarus<\/a> at one point or another, melting under the heat of media and voter scrutiny.<\/p>\n<p>We remain roughly a month-and-a-half away from Super Tuesday, the date where traditionally the primaries have been resolved &#8211; if not in literally allocating enough delegates to produce a winner, than at least enough to leave the outcome less than in doubt. \u00a09 states vote until then, and while the race will probably shift numerous times over the course of these upcoming dates, let&#8217;s take a look at where things stand now:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jan 31st &#8211; Florida (primary)<\/strong>: \u00a0Despite Gingrich&#8217;s roundhouse kick to the meme of Romney&#8217;s inevitability, and a <a href=\"http:\/\/race42012.com\/2012\/01\/23\/poll-watch-insideradvantagemajority-opinion-research-r-florida-gop-primary-poll\/\">new poll showing him surging into the lead in Florida<\/a>, Newt may have already lost the state. \u00a0Why? \u00a0A supposed third of likely Florida Republican primary voters have already <a href=\"http:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/2011\/12\/26\/2562421\/absentee-ballots-key-to-florida.html\">cast their absentee ballots<\/a>\u00a0in a state where Romney continues to lead by an\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2012\/president\/fl\/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html\">RCP average of 18.5%<\/a>\u00a0(and he&#8217;s been beating the absentee war drum for months).\u00a0 Considering Romney turned a 10% lead into a 12% defeat within about four days, suggesting another Lazarus comeback for Gingrich isn&#8217;t out of the question, but requires Newt to significantly win the remaining pool of likely voters &#8211; and drive turnout up. \u00a0Perhaps biggest factor influencing decisions about Florida &#8211; the fact that the state&#8217;s delegates are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tampabay.com\/blogs\/the-buzz-florida-politics\/content\/rnc-fla-primary-will-remain-winner-take-all-delegates\">winner-take-all<\/a>. \u00a0Even a Iowaesque margin means one candidate takes home 50 delegates (cut nearly in half by the RNC due to Florida crashing the primary schedule) and everyone else gets squat. \u00a0Some of the field might be better served getting ready for the rest of the Republican primary schedule which includes&#8230;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Feb 4 \u2013 Nevada (caucus)<\/strong>: \u00a0There&#8217;s a presumption that Nevada is prime Romney territory due to his 2008 victory, fueled by the state&#8217;s nearly 8% Mormon population (they comprised <a href=\"http:\/\/firstread.msnbc.msn.com\/_news\/2008\/01\/19\/4425158-nevada-mormons-turn-out-for-romney\">25% of the caucus turnout in 2008<\/a>). \u00a0And certainly in what little polling has been done (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2012\/president\/nv\/nevada_republican_presidential_primary-1768.html\">no new poll in a month<\/a>), Romney has maintained a lead throughout, even at the height of Newtmania in December. \u00a0But the circumstances that lead Romney to win a number of caucus states four years ago have certainly changed. \u00a0With his role having been transformed from conservative outsider to moderate establishment, Romney now finds himself on the other side of the anti-establishment movement that he benefited from in 2008. \u00a0Nevada&#8217;s population might still help him win the state, but a caucus-filled February could hit Romney hard.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Feb 7 \u2013 Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus), Missouri (primary)<\/strong>: \u00a0Guess what all three states have in common? \u00a0None of them are actually allocating delegates on Feb 7th. \u00a0But damned if they won&#8217;t at least appear to matter as the momentum of the entire primary process might be up for grabs by this date. \u00a0Feb 7th might also be Rick Santorum&#8217;s last attempt to remain in the contest. \u00a0With Gingrich <a href=\"http:\/\/caffeinatedthoughts.com\/2012\/01\/grading-ballot-access-romney-and-paul-make-honor-roll-while-gingrich-failing-santorum-perry-and-huntsmann-in-need-of-extra-credit\/\">not on the Missouri ballot<\/a> and caucuses far more fertile ground for a socially conservative message, Santorum needs to win one or two of these states to be seen as viable. \u00a0Paul could be making his last stand as anything more than a spolier as well, and likely will do quite well in Minnesota as he did in 2008 when he got <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Minnesota_Republican_caucuses,_2008\">nearly 16% of the vote<\/a>. \u00a0While Romney carried both <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Colorado_Republican_caucuses,_2008\">Colorado<\/a> and Minnesota in 2008 (by large margins), again he was viewed as the conservative alternative. \u00a0If Romney only wins Missouri or loses the Show-Me State, talk of his collapse won&#8217;t be far behind.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Feb 11 \u2013 Maine (caucus)<\/strong>: \u00a0Maine was virtually ignored four years ago by all the candidates (save Paul) and Romney still walked away with a <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Maine_Republican_caucuses,_2008\">30-point victory<\/a>. \u00a0Expectations would have Romney winning the state again due to proximity to New Hampshire and Massachusetts, the moderation of the state&#8217;s Republicans, and the poor organizing efforts by competing campaigns. \u00a0Because of that, probably the only way Maine&#8217;s results will have any impact on the race is if Romney loses. \u00a0The small media market might be tempting for the rest of the field to try and create an upset on the cheap.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Feb 28 \u2013 Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary)<\/strong>: \u00a017 days between primaries? \u00a0What will the 24-hour news channels do with themselves? \u00a0Probably forecast a split decision on Feb 28th, with Romney winning his former &#8220;home state&#8221; of Michigan and Gingrich or Santorum (assuming the latter is still in the race at this point) winning Arizona. \u00a0What little polling exists hasn&#8217;t been illuminating. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Arizona_.28February_28.29\">Three polls over the last three months<\/a> have produced three different leaders. \u00a0Romney&#8217;s early January lead with 41% was amid his Iowa &#8220;win&#8221; and expected victory in New Hampshire. \u00a0Both states are larger media markets but the long delay between states will mean that aggressive retail campaigning might pay off.<\/li>\n<li><strong>March 3 \u2013 Washington (caucus)<\/strong>: \u00a0The last state before Super Tuesday on March 6th could provide a little last-minute momentum for a candidate before 11 states (and 466 delegates) are decided. \u00a02008 isn&#8217;t exactly much of a guide here &#8211; McCain squeezed out a victory here due to a fractured field with <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Washington_Republican_caucuses,_2008\">only 12,000 people showing up to vote<\/a>. \u00a0By local comparison, nearly <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Minnesota_Republican_caucuses,_2008\">63,000 Minnesota Republicans<\/a> voted in on caucus night in 2008. \u00a0Turnout like 2008 likely means someone other than Romney wins &#8211; and that the result will be ignored by the media. \u00a0This could be a state that Ron Paul actually wins. \u00a0He performed well four years ago, has a strong organization in Washington and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ronpaul2012.com\/2011\/12\/08\/washington-state-rep-cary-condotta-endorses-ron-paul-for-the-presidency\/\">some establishment support<\/a> (to the extent you can call it that).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If there&#8217;s been one constant in this ever-changing Republican presidential primary season, it&#8217;s that every candidate has looked like Icarus at one point or another, melting under the heat of media and voter scrutiny. We remain roughly a month-and-a-half away from Super Tuesday, the date where traditionally the primaries have been resolved &#8211; if not [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":425,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56,16,105,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-12","category-conservatism","category-first-ringer","category-republicans"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/425"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25776"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25793,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25776\/revisions\/25793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}