{"id":23968,"date":"2011-10-25T12:15:36","date_gmt":"2011-10-25T17:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=23968"},"modified":"2011-10-24T22:48:52","modified_gmt":"2011-10-25T03:48:52","slug":"hope-for-change-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=23968","title":{"rendered":"Hope For Change"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>IHS Global&#8217;s economic model &#8211; reported by James Pethoukoukis &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.american.com\/2011\/10\/model-bad-economy-means-obama-should-get-just-43-5-percent-of-the-vote\/\">sounds a dire warning<\/a> for The One:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Based on the likely state of the economy in 2012, President Obama faces a steep uphill task to secure reelection. Based upon our forecast for the economy, our election equation projects just a 43.5% share of the two-party vote for the president, i.e., a heavy defeat.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Pethoukoukis:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>It may already be too late for Obama, given the lengthy lag between an economic turnaround and voter economic perception. Then again, maybe the Gray Davis model\u2014use a huge fundraising advantage to squeak out a win\u2014can be effectively employed by Team Obama.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As we saw earlier, you can expect the Dems to pull out their biggest advantage &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=23959\">plutocrats <\/a>&#8211; for all they&#8217;re worth. \u00a0As it were.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>But it\u2019s not just IHS Global. Yale economist Ray Fair has a well-known\u00a0election forecasting model\u00a0that uses three economic variables to makes its call: a)\u00a0growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first three quarters of 2012; b)\u00a0growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration, c)\u00a0number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration in which the growth\u00a0rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at an annual rate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Are you better off than you were four years ago?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IHS Global&#8217;s economic model &#8211; reported by James Pethoukoukis &#8211; sounds a dire warning for The One: &#8220;Based on the likely state of the economy in 2012, President Obama faces a steep uphill task to secure reelection. Based upon our forecast for the economy, our election equation projects just a 43.5% share of the two-party [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56,64],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-12","category-president-obama"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23968"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23968\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23972,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23968\/revisions\/23972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}