{"id":23320,"date":"2011-10-05T06:00:59","date_gmt":"2011-10-05T11:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=23320"},"modified":"2011-10-05T07:01:36","modified_gmt":"2011-10-05T12:01:36","slug":"democrats-iceberg-right-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=23320","title":{"rendered":"Democrats: “Iceberg! Right Ahead!”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Polls taken 56 weeks before the election have a very dodgy record predicting real elections.<\/p>\n

But they do make for good entertainment.<\/p>\n

And this WaPo-ABC Poll is certainly good entertainment:<\/p>\n

Overall, 55 percent of Americans expect a Republican victory next year. Fewer, 37 percent, predict that President Obama will win reelection. A majority of independents sense that the GOP nominee will prevail, but there is a gaping difference between party loyalists.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fully 83 percent of Republicans say the GOP nominee \u2014 whoever he or she may be \u2014 is likely to claim the presidency next year. Among Democrats, far fewer, 58 percent, say they think Obama will win a second term. A third of Democrats expect a GOP win; just 13 percent of Republicans sense a repeat for Obama.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

All the usual caveats apply.<\/p>\n

Tangential question: I wonder if Nate Silver will use this poll to handicap the next election? \u00a0Or maybe he’s learned his lesson<\/a>?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Polls taken 56 weeks before the election have a very dodgy record predicting real elections. But they do make for good entertainment. And this WaPo-ABC Poll is certainly good entertainment: Overall, 55 percent of Americans expect a Republican victory next year. Fewer, 37 percent, predict that President Obama will win reelection. A majority of independents […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-12"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23320"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23321,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23320\/revisions\/23321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}