I’ve been raising kids for a long time. \u00a0Before that, I grew up around a bunch of them. \u00a0Indeed, I was one myself, once.<\/p>\n
And I know now as I knew then the same thing that every single person who watches Cops <\/em>knows, instinctively; if you think someone did something, and their response is “you can’t prove it”, it’s the same as an admission of guilt<\/em>.<\/p>\n Oh, it doesn’t stand up in court – and it’s probably a good thing.<\/p>\n And in the rarified world of academics – and its poor, profoundly handicapped accidental offspring, political public opinion polling – I’m going to suggest it works the same way.<\/p>\n If there is a poll that is, year in and year out, just as ludicrous as the Humphrey and Strib polls, it’s the Saint Cloud State University poll. \u00a0I haven’t heretofore included it in my “Great Poll Scam” series, because it’s sort of out of sight and out of mind.<\/p>\n But in David Brauer’s interview with Emmer campaign manager Cullen Sheehan, the director of the SCSU poll – which is done in conjunction with the MinnPost – a fellow named Stephen Frank, tips us off<\/a>; he concludes…:<\/p>\n Frank says. \u201cCampaign managers like to find excuses\u00a0rather than looking at their candidate or performance. Do you think if we stopped [publishing results] others would \u2014\u00a0or the candidates would\u00a0and the latter won\u2019t go public or only partially public?\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n True, to a point.<\/p>\n But he began the statement by saying:<\/p>\n \u201cPlease show me one credible study that shows people change their mind on the basis of a poll,\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n On the one hand:\u00a0 “You can’t proooooooooove we did it<\/em>!”<\/p>\n On the other hand – allow me to introduce you to Dr. Albert Mehrabian, who published a study entitled “Effects of Poll Reports on Voter Preferences”<\/a><\/p>\n From the abstract summary, with emphasis added:<\/p>\n Results of two experimental studies described in this article constituted clear experimental demonstration of how polls influence votes. Findings showed that voters tended to vote for those who they were told were leading in the polls; furthermore, that these poll-driven effects on votes were substantial<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n How substantial? \u00a0I don’t know. \u00a0As I write this, it’s 5AM, and I have no way of getting to the University of Minnesota library to find a copy of Journal of Applied Social Psychology (Volume 28)<\/em>. \u00a0But I will.<\/p>\n But Mehrabian noted a decided “bandwagon effect” in voter responses to poll results.<\/p>\n Effects of polls on votes tended to be operative throughout a wide spectrum of initial (i.e., pre-poll) voter preferences ranging from undecided to moderately strong. There was a limit on poll effects, however, as noted in Study Two: Polls failed to influence votes when voter preferences were very strong to begin with.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Bingo.<\/p>\n I’d have voted for Tom Emmer even if he did <\/em>finish 12 points back, as the Humphrey Institute suggested. \u00a0Or ten points out of the game, as Frank’s survey (which I ridiculed in this space), or thirty points back. \u00a0But then, nobody really doubted that.<\/p>\n But people who don’t live and breathe politics? \u00a0That’s another story – says Dr. Mehrabian.<\/p>\n Additional findings of considerable interest showed that effects of polls were stronger for women than for men and also were stronger for more arousable (i.e., more emotional) and more submissive (or less dominant) persons.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Which would be important, in a year when the DFL was worried about women flaking away from Dayton, and moderates being drawn (successfully!) to the Tea Party.<\/p>\n Wouldn’t it?<\/p>\n Especially noteworthy is my discussion of similarities and differences between the study methods and real- life political campaigns beginning with the middle paragraph on page 2128 (“Overall, results …).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n I’ll dredge up a copy of Mehrabian’s study (unless any of you academics out there can shoot me a pointer…).<\/p>\n