{"id":14647,"date":"2010-10-25T07:39:33","date_gmt":"2010-10-25T12:39:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=14647"},"modified":"2014-10-02T10:19:38","modified_gmt":"2014-10-02T15:19:38","slug":"chanting-points-memo-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=14647","title":{"rendered":"Chanting Points Memo: Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The DFL&#8217;s been trying to make a lot out of the last few polls released on the Minnesota Gubernatorial race. \u00a0Most of them show Dayton leading Emmer by one margin or another &#8211; from the tight to the ludicrous.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?cat=108\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: right; border: 0px initial initial;\" src=\"http:\/\/farm5.static.flickr.com\/4017\/4575208799_e7c6e34c94.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"252\" height=\"192\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ed and I were discussing the polls on our show over the weekend, and we noticed something.<\/p>\n<p>Look at the likely voter percentages in the last few &#8220;major&#8221; polls&#8221;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strib\/&#8221;Minnesota&#8221; Poll &#8211; <strong>D+4<\/strong> (meaning they figure that Democrats will make up four percent more of the electorate than Republicans on election day.<\/li>\n<li>Rasmussen Poll: <strong>D+5<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now, this is a function of how these polls determine &#8220;likely voters&#8221;. \u00a0This formula varies among polling services, but &#8211; since it&#8217;s a form of science, however imprecise &#8211; is hypothetically based on some kind of math, derived from experience.<\/p>\n<p>And what has &#8220;experience&#8221; been in Minnesota, especially recently?<\/p>\n<p>In the 2008 election, Minnesotans&#8217; spread was <strong>D+4.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In other words, Democrats made up 4% more of the electorate than Republicans did.<\/p>\n<p>The pollsters are honestly suggesting that Democrats are going to turn out in the same number as in the Democrat landslide of 2008?<\/p>\n<p>Or that Independents are going to break the same way they did two and four years ago?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The DFL&#8217;s been trying to make a lot out of the last few polls released on the Minnesota Gubernatorial race. \u00a0Most of them show Dayton leading Emmer by one margin or another &#8211; from the tight to the ludicrous. Ed and I were discussing the polls on our show over the weekend, and we noticed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,108],"tags":[312],"class_list":["post-14647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-10","category-chanting-points-memo","tag-mngov-2010"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14647"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15449,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14647\/revisions\/15449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}