{"id":14363,"date":"2010-10-15T07:50:26","date_gmt":"2010-10-15T12:50:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=14363"},"modified":"2014-10-02T10:19:38","modified_gmt":"2014-10-02T15:19:38","slug":"its-all-about-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=14363","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s All About Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The latest SurveyUSA\/KSTP poll <a href=\"http:\/\/kstp.com\/news\/stories\/S1792455.shtml?cat=1\">has Dayton up by five<\/a> &#8211; with a margin of almost four points.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>After a steady stream of TV ads and roughly two dozen debates, Minnesota&#8217;s race for governor remains without a clear front-runner.<\/p>\n<p>DFLer Mark Dayton is the leader in the latest KSTP\/SurveyUSA poll with 42 percent. He&#8217;s five points ahead of Republican Tom Emmer, who came in with 37 percent. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is at 14 percent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I haven&#8217;t seen any crosstabs or anything about the methodology &#8211; and I&#8217;ll follow up when I do.<\/p>\n<p>My theory &#8211; none of the likely voter models properly accounts for the enthusiasm and turnout anomalies in a &#8220;wave&#8221; election.<\/p>\n<p>(CYNICAL MITCH chimes in: &#8220;or how many Democrat &#8220;likely voters&#8221; are dead, or voting in more than three precincts&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p>Long story short &#8211; don&#8217;t let the media get you down. \u00a0Emmer&#8217;s gonna win by three.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest SurveyUSA\/KSTP poll has Dayton up by five &#8211; with a margin of almost four points. After a steady stream of TV ads and roughly two dozen debates, Minnesota&#8217;s race for governor remains without a clear front-runner. DFLer Mark Dayton is the leader in the latest KSTP\/SurveyUSA poll with 42 percent. He&#8217;s five points [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[312],"class_list":["post-14363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-10","tag-mngov-2010"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14363"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14369,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14363\/revisions\/14369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}