{"id":13907,"date":"2010-09-29T06:39:26","date_gmt":"2010-09-29T11:39:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=13907"},"modified":"2014-10-02T10:19:47","modified_gmt":"2014-10-02T15:19:47","slug":"their-masters-voices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=13907","title":{"rendered":"Their Masters&#8217; Voices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The new MPR\/Humphrey Poll <a href=\"http:\/\/minnesota.publicradio.org\/display\/web\/2010\/09\/29\/mpr-hhh-poll-dayton-leads-emmer\/\">shows Dayton<\/a> at 38, Emmer at 27 and Horner at 16.<\/p>\n<p>Fishy? \u00a0Oh, yeah; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.minnpost.com\/braublog\/2010\/09\/29\/21861\/mpr_jaw-dropper_dayton_lead_soars_to_11_points\">Brauer writes at MinnPost<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>One of the wacky things about the 750-voter, landline-only, five-day survey is how much partisan ID shifted in just a month. August&#8217;s poll was 46 percent GOP, 41 percent Democrat \u2014 the only major survey with a Republican plurality. This one is 48 percent Dem, 38 percent GOP.<\/p>\n<p>Humphrey Institute Prof. Larry Jacobs ascribes this to renewed DFL enthusiasm.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At the risk of being accused of Pauline Kael syndrome &#8211; <em>what <\/em>DFL enthusiasm?<\/p>\n<p>At the risk of being called a cynic, I&#8217;d say Jacobs has a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here. \u00a0The poll is here &#8211; again, this is an accused cynic talking &#8211; to boost that enthusiasm.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>However, the dramatic shift will inflame the doubters, particularly GOP partisans, whose rightest wing generally regards the HHH poll as the junior member of a Strib-led pro-DFL Gruesome Twosome.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Well, that&#8217;s cutting it a bit finely. \u00a0We can be more broad than that. \u00a0The HHH, the Strib and MPR are all pr0-DFL &#8211; or at least pro-big-government &#8211; institutions. \u00a0Whether by accident or design, their polling operations reflect their institutions&#8217; biases and, at this point of the election.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This demands a little more discussion of how the poll determines likely voters, a topic I broached the other day.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Why yes. \u00a0Yes, it does.<\/p>\n<p>UPDATE: \u00a0Look &#8211; the logical side of my brain says &#8220;these numbers, and those in the MNPoll, do not, no way, no how, pass the stench test&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The not-so-logical, inductive side of my brain is the part filling in the rest. \u00a0Which isn&#8217;t to say I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s something to it.<\/p>\n<p>UPDATE 2: Welcome Politics in Minnesota reader!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The new MPR\/Humphrey Poll shows Dayton at 38, Emmer at 27 and Horner at 16. Fishy? \u00a0Oh, yeah; Brauer writes at MinnPost: One of the wacky things about the 750-voter, landline-only, five-day survey is how much partisan ID shifted in just a month. August&#8217;s poll was 46 percent GOP, 41 percent Democrat \u2014 the only [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,4],"tags":[312],"class_list":["post-13907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-10","category-media","tag-mngov-2010"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13907"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13907\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47676,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13907\/revisions\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}