{"id":12367,"date":"2010-07-31T20:45:22","date_gmt":"2010-08-01T01:45:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=12367"},"modified":"2010-11-03T22:54:28","modified_gmt":"2010-11-04T03:54:28","slug":"attention-christians-strib-is-loading-lions-into-chute","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/?p=12367","title":{"rendered":"Attention, Christians: Strib Is Loading Lions Into Chute"},"content":{"rendered":"

There’s going to be a new “Minnesota” Poll tomorrow in the Strib<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Here are my fearless predictions; I predict a couple of things:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Despite the fact that actual, reputable polls show Tom Emmer inside the margin of error\u00a0 (despite having been outspent by a 16:1 margin so far in this campaign), the “Minnesota” Poll will show Emmer down, probably by two digits.<\/li>\n
  2. The local media and DFL-leaning “alternative” media will take this as a huge boost for the DFL…<\/li>\n
  3. …notwithstanding the fact that the poll will drastically oversample Democrat-leaning voters.<\/li>\n
  4. But you’ll only learn that on conservative blogs and talk radio.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    This pattern is iron-clad and absolute; the Minnesota Poll is a useless appendage that serves only as a morale-builder for the DFL; the only exception has been in 2008, when the GOP did so badly that the DFL didn’t need the help.<\/p>\n

    This year? \u00a0Facing a solid GOP candidate with three nonentities and facing an “Independence\u00a0Party” candidate that will take three DFL votes for every two Republicans, in a year when anti-tax-and-spend fever is sweeping every part of this nation outside the Beltway and Kenwood?<\/p>\n

    The morale-builder is needed.<\/p>\n

    My favorite bit of Minnesota Poll history; immediately before the 2002 gubernatorial election, the Minnesota Poll showed Roger Moe with a slim but significant lead, while Tim Pawlenty and IndyParty candidate Tim Penny duked it out for second in a near-statistical tie. \u00a0You may recall that Pawlenty won pretty handily, while Penny got about half the share the MNPoll predicted.<\/p>\n

    Luke Hellier at MDE has more:<\/p>\n

    Let\u2019s use the 2006 Governor\u2019s Race as an example.
    \nOn November 6 the poll showed the following:
    \nTim Pawlenty 39%
    \nMike Hatch 42%
    \nPeter Hutchinson 7%
    \nJust a day later, Minnesotans went to the poll an reelected Tim Pawlenty to a second term. The actual results were:
    \nTim Pawlenty 46%
    \nMike Hatch 45%
    \nPeter Hutchinson 6%
    \nIn the US Senate Race, the poll showed Mark Kennedy only receiving 33%. On election day he received 38%
    \nGoing back 2 years earlier, the poll had President George Bush only with 42% of the support in Minnesota. On election day the President received the support of 48% of Minnesotans.
    \nNeedless to say, the Minnesota Poll vastly under estimates the support of Republicans while inflating that of Democrats.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Powerline was also shredding the Minnesota Poll<\/a> long before most people had heard of either the poll or the blog.<\/p>\n

    The whole intent is to try to demoralize the undecided but GOP-leaning voter – the ones that are going to decide this election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    There’s going to be a new “Minnesota” Poll tomorrow in the Strib. Here are my fearless predictions; I predict a couple of things: Despite the fact that actual, reputable polls show Tom Emmer inside the margin of error\u00a0 (despite having been outspent by a 16:1 margin so far in this campaign), the “Minnesota” Poll will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,4],"tags":[120],"class_list":["post-12367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-10","category-media","tag-polling"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12367"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12367\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12369,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12367\/revisions\/12369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.shotinthedark.info\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}