Their Masters’ Voices

The new MPR/Humphrey Poll shows Dayton at 38, Emmer at 27 and Horner at 16.

Fishy?  Oh, yeah; Brauer writes at MinnPost:

One of the wacky things about the 750-voter, landline-only, five-day survey is how much partisan ID shifted in just a month. August’s poll was 46 percent GOP, 41 percent Democrat — the only major survey with a Republican plurality. This one is 48 percent Dem, 38 percent GOP.

Humphrey Institute Prof. Larry Jacobs ascribes this to renewed DFL enthusiasm.

At the risk of being accused of Pauline Kael syndrome – what DFL enthusiasm?

At the risk of being called a cynic, I’d say Jacobs has a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here.  The poll is here – again, this is an accused cynic talking – to boost that enthusiasm.

However, the dramatic shift will inflame the doubters, particularly GOP partisans, whose rightest wing generally regards the HHH poll as the junior member of a Strib-led pro-DFL Gruesome Twosome.

Well, that’s cutting it a bit finely.  We can be more broad than that.  The HHH, the Strib and MPR are all pr0-DFL – or at least pro-big-government – institutions.  Whether by accident or design, their polling operations reflect their institutions’ biases and, at this point of the election.

This demands a little more discussion of how the poll determines likely voters, a topic I broached the other day.

Why yes.  Yes, it does.

UPDATE:  Look – the logical side of my brain says “these numbers, and those in the MNPoll, do not, no way, no how, pass the stench test”.

The not-so-logical, inductive side of my brain is the part filling in the rest.  Which isn’t to say I don’t think there’s something to it.

UPDATE 2: Welcome Politics in Minnesota reader!

Chanting Points Memo: All Moo, No Cow

It’s been two months now that the Twin CAdd Videoities and national left has been flexing its proverbial muscles over Target’s donation to MNForward.

It got to the point over the summer where the Twin Cities left and media (pardon the redundancy) thought they’d made a huuuuuge dent on Target’s market capitalization.

Indeed even today you can read leftybloggers chortling “Omigod, I have to go to Target!  I feel teh icky! LOLCATZ”, and hear about Big Gay staging protests at Targets all over the country, and even throwing “Flashmobs”, which seems to be something the kids today call “big groups of noisy douchebags”, at Target stores.

Because Target – one of the most socially liberal, with-it, pr0-gay companies in American business, dared to donate to a politician who’d support the interests of Minnesota businesses.  Because they hate gays, we’re supposed to believe.

Target must be really hurting.  Right?

Not so much:

Blue is Target.  Red is the Dow.

Target was already at a low due to bad consumer confidence numbers at that point (the week before July 23 or so).

So  how did Target’s performance stack up next to companies that, ahem, don’t “hate gays?”  Companies like Dollar Tree (darker blue), Family Dollar (Green), Costco (yellow) and Target (the lighter blue)?

Costco apparently hates gays even more!  And board at WalMart were apparently riding in the Pride Parade on a gigantic motorized sex aid wearing leather S and M wear!

Or perhaps it’s simpler than that; perhaps Big Gay and the left aren’t nearly as powerful as they think, and Target is doing juuuuust fine, with or without protests.

The DFL Morale-Builder, 2010 Edition

With the news that Tom Emmer has pulled to a tiny, inside-the-margin-of-error lead in the latest Rasmussen poll, I’ve joked that it’s about time for a Star/Tribune “Minnesota Poll” showing Mark Dayton leading by an improbably huge margin.

And sure enough, here it is.  It shows Dayton leading Emmer 39-30, with Horner eating up 18 points.

The key, as with all Minnesota Polls, is in the sampling; the methodology seems to be “poll Democrats until we get the result that’ll make Democrats feel better and want to come to the polls”.  And if you look at the “methodology” page (and the Strib has got to be assuming you won’t), it’s right there:

The self-identified party affiliation of the random sample is: 35 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican and 28 percent independent. The remaining 9 percent said they were members of another party, no party or declined to answer.

So the Strib claims to believe, in this electoral season, that there will be five Democrat voters for every four GOP voters, and (apparently) that independents will break the same way they did two years ago.

The Washington post carried this oddly-constructed PDF showing the Minnesota Poll’s statistical history over the past five decades or so.  For MN Polls conducted since Rob Davies took over the Poll (I’ll add emphasis)…:

  • The final GOP poll number was on average 5.20 percent points under the actual GOP result in the election. -5.20 percentage points is outside the margin of error in the Minnesota Poll.
  • The final DFL poll number was on average 2.06 percent points under the actual DFL result in the election. -2.06 percentage points is inside the margin of error in the Minnesota Poll.
  • Since 1998, the Minnesota Poll has underestimated the GOP result in elections by an average of 7.26 percent but underestimated the DFL result by only .054 percent.

I’ll remind you that if the Minnesota poll were accurate, we’d be referring to Governor Humphrey (the poll showed Skip with a strong lead over Coleman, with Ventura well out of the running), Senator Mondale (who had a five point lead in the MN Poll on the eve of the ’02 election), Governor Moe (to whom the MNPoll gave a slim lead, while significantly overpolling IP candidate Tim Penny in ’02), Governor Hatch (yep, slated to win in ’06)…

…indeed, the only year they’ve been genuinely accurate was ’08.  The year of the great Democrat/DFL blowout.  That’s because, in effect, the Minnesota Poll always predicts DFL blowouts.  They were finally right in ’08.

This poll, like all Minnesota Polls, has only one purpose; to help revive the DFL’s flagging spirits.  Mark Dayton has run a perfunctory, frankly terrible campaign, notable for the nastiness of the “third-party” attack ad campaign largely paid for by Dayton, his ex-wife and family.  His support is slipping in reputable polls.

And that’s why we have the Minnesota Poll.

The serial dishonesty and, let’s be honest, in-the-bag-ness of the Minnesota Poll was the straw the broke the camel’s back when I last unsubscribed to the Strib back in 2004.

If you are a Minnesota conservative who is hoping for a sane governor next year, this is not a reason to jump off the ledge – but it is a reason to remember this is a tough campaign.  Emmer’s doing well, but he still faces a full-court press – the bought-off, in-the-bag media, a ruthless pack of well-heeled institutional hyenas, and the DFL machine.  If you can peel off a few bucks, or spend some time calling or door-knocking, it’s needed.

Bring on the real polling – in November!

UPDATE:  Luke Matthews at True North notes that Princeton Survey Research Associations – which did the polling and analysis – has a “business model” that invites analytical wierdness:

For many clients, PDS provides a cleaned, unweighted dataset. But for the client who does not want to weigh the data themselves, PDS can provide weighting services to take into account known probabilities involving the sampling process or known variations in the non-response among groups.

In other words, these non-response groups [the large percentage of “no-response/different party” respondents – a high nine percent in the MN Poll – Ed] have been manipulated.  By manipulated, I mean, they made it up.  In their vast experience as pollsters, they have discovered that non-response means, this, whatever this may be.  Since they are providers to Pew Research, a group with notoriously liberal findings, we can conclude that non-response to Princeton means they’re probably liberals.

So, to recap.  We have a poll with a huge margin of error for the population size, a presumption of liberal bias when weighing cell phone sampling, a large number of non-independent, non-responsive people, who are presumed liberal by a liberal polling firm who works exclusively with liberal groups.

More as the story warrants.

Just Around The Corner From The Light Of Day

The latest Rasmussen Poll shows the race still a dead heat, but with Emmer ahead:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters shows Emmer earning 42% support to Dayton’s 41% when leaners are included. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is a distant third with nine percent (9%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

The findings move the race to a Toss-Up from Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Dayton’s supporters will do the usual bleating; it’s a landline phone survey, yadda yadda.

And some of the local wonk class are astounded that Tom Horner, who drew 18 points in the last KSTP/Survey USA poll, is down to 9 in the lastest Raz.

I think there’s a rational reason for it; I’ll add emphasis:

This is the first survey of the governor’s race to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

Excluding leaners, Emmer edges Dayton 36% to 34%, and Horner chalks up 18% support. Horner’s loss of support when leaners are added highlights the tendency in most races for supporters of third-party candidates to gravitate to one of the major party nominees as Election Day approaches.

I suspect an awful lot of people consider third-party candidacies as a sort of personal “protest” against the major parties – up until it becomes real to them.

We’ll be talking about one of those issues that are making the leaners lean real hard, at noon today on Shot In The Dark.

Fact Checking

I’m not one to jump to rash conclusions.  I’d hate to have my self-appointed betters call me a “lazy-ass activist”, after all – that is one of those things where the mere accusation makes it so, at least if the subject is a conservative in Minnesota, apparently.

So I sent the following email to the Dayton cmpaign.

I’m Mitch Berg, of WWTC-AM’s “Northern Alliance Radio Network” and the blogs “Shot In The Dark” and “True North”.

Senator Dayton has said that he attended the University of Massachusetts at Amherst after graduating from Yale University.

I called Amherst; they said they have no record of a Mark Dayton, DOB 1/26/1947, attending the institution.

I’m sure this is just a paperwork flub on someone’s part. Would there be any way the campaign could confirm Senator Dayton’s attendance?

Thanks, and stay dry!

Mitch Berg

“The Northern Alliance Radio Network”

WWTC-AM, Eagan, MN

“Shot In The Dark” – www.shotinthedark.info

“True North” – www.looktruenorth.com

I’ll be following up by phone later today, if I don’t get an answer.

All In The Timing

So yesterday former Emmer campaign manager Mark Buesgens was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving.

Well, that’s news, sorta.  Granted, Buesgens left the campaign over a week ago, but facts are facts.

Of course, the media flogged the “story” that Tom Emmer had had two alcohol-related careless driving convictions, in 1981 and 1991 – nearly twenty and thirty years ago – earlier in the campaign.

So at least the Buesgens story was timely

Now, this…:

Another DWI with Emmer campaign ties

Posted at 6:31 PM on September 20, 2010 by Tim Pugmire

Filed under: Campaign 2010, Minnesota Governor

The Associated Press is reporting that the former manager of Republican Tom Emmer’s gubernatorial campaign, David Fitzsimmons, was arrested for drunk driving…

Hm.  I’ve met Dave.  Didn’t know about this.

Was it…recent?

…shortly after stepping down from that job back in May.

Fitzsimmons was arrested for DWI in Hennepin County on May 16,

May 16? This story happened after the convention, and three months before the primary, but MPR’s Tim Pugmire felt the need to run the story yesterday? Why, what could have possibly happened yesterday?

Could it have been that Fitzsimmons was convicted of DWI yesterday?

but he was not convicted.

Ah.  So he was acquitted yesterday?

From the Henco court record:

08/25/2010

Disposition (Judicial Officer: Hedlund, Deborah)

1. Traffic regulation – failure to drive in single lane-hazardous

Convicted

2. Traffic – DWI – Operate Motor Vehicle – Alcohol Concentration 0.08 Within 2 Hours

Dismissed

Er…so the case was disposed of three weeks ago?

So the “news” is not actually “new?”

The revelation about Fitzsimmons followed today’s earlier news that state Rep. Mark Buesgens, R-Jordan, was arrested for DWI Saturday in Wright County. Buesgens was Emmer’s campaign chairman until about a week ago.

Odd choice of term, “revelation”.  It’s the noun form of “to reveal”.  Who “revealed” it?

Because here’s my guess:  The DFL has  been sitting on this “revelation” since May.  Dayton’s budget plan is in trouble, his numbers are diving, and he really has nothing up his sleeve.  His opposition people did what oppo people do; found an opportunity (Buesgen’s arrest) to drop the Fitzsimmons story.  They placed it with the media, to further the narrative that the Dayton Campaign has been running since the beginning.  You know – the one that starts…:

Emmer had his own DWI issues in 1981 and 1991.

…and has been rammed home with about 20,000 ads paid for by “Alliance For A Better Minnesota” over the past few months.

It’s better for the DFL if people focus on drunk driving incidents (even if they have nothing to do with the campaign, with Emmer’s policies and plans, than on the ongoing disintegration of the Dayton campaign.

Mulligan

Reacting t0 the news that the Minnesota Department of Revenue found that Mark Dayton’s original budget “plan” came in about $3 billion light in its attempt to close the budget shortfall by “taxing the rich” (Minnesotans with adjusted gross incomes greater than $150K for a family or $130K for an individual), the Dayton campaign is apparently going to try to get it right this time:

Democrat Mark Dayton’s campaign spokeswoman says the campaign will release an updated budget plan [today]. The campaign has been crunching the numbers after the MN Department of Revenue released an analysis that Dayton’s proposed income tax hike on Minnesota’s top earners wouldn’t generate the money he predicted.

So what’s going to change?

No idea.

All we do know is what we heard from a source who told conservative bloggers that someone overheard Dayton in his campaign HQ bellowing “Plug the damned hole!” last week after the wheels came off the first version of his “plan”.

More as developments warrant.

Taking Back “Miracle”

“Charles Manson stole this song from the Beatles.  We’re here to steal it back”

— Bono, introducing “Helter Skelter” at the beginning of Rattle and Hum.

———-

There aren’t many things in the world worse than someone – especially someone putatively in charge of you – claiming credit for your work.

All of Minnesota should be upset.

Fifty years ago, Minnesota was a sleeping giant.  Blessed with immense natural resources – taconite, lumber, agribusiness – and with huge advantages being the geographic, demographic and communications center of the upper midwest and upper Great Plains, Minnesota had been hampered by the same dynamics that hampered all rural Midwestern agricultural states.

Minnesota had communications – rails and rivers and roads – and a couple of big cities full of people and a huge land-grant university, located smack -dab at the confluence of America’s greatest river and one of her greatest rail nexuses.

Once communication and capital met, really, it’d have taken serious effort to keep Minnesota from prospering.

And Minnesota did, finally, prosper.  In the 1970s, the combination of brains, talent, communications and infrastructure finally moved Minnesota out of the “underachievers” category and onto the “overachievers” list.  Minnesota companies – 3M, Dayton Hudson, Carmichael-Lynch, Target, Sound of Music (now Best Buy), Musicland, Toro, Polaris, Northwest Orient Airlines, Control Data, Honeywell, IDS, Cray, Medtronic and a slew of others became the lynchpins of a regional economy that performed well above its weight.

Around that same time, the Minnesota Legislature – controlled at the time, we are reminded, by the Republican Party, in those days long, long before “Republican” meant “Conservative – instituted a series of programs that redistributed the state’s new, skyrocketing wealth from the parts of the state that had it – the cha-cha Twin Cities – to the parts that didn’t, the poor rural areas in the north and the the economically-lagging Iron Range and Arrowhead.  The reasons made some sense at the time, in a Keynesian sort of way; the Twin Cities, and especially their new, booming suburbs, were awash in money; towns like Virginia and Thief River Falls, presiding over eroding industries and smaller, less resource-rich populations, were sucking pond water.

Rolling in tax receipts as the regional and national economies both boomed in the sixties and very early seventies, the state launched a variety of programs – “Local Government Aid”, which redistributed money from the Cities outward and helped smaller, poorer areas of the state build better infrastructure, which made sense at the time, and an orgy of spending on schools and post-secondary education and infrastructure.

The national media, noticing the story of Minnesota’s booming growth at a time in the pre-Reagan era when people were still liable to attribute all good things in life to government, dubbed the explosion “The Minnesota Miracle”.  It even made the cover of Time Magazine.

Gov. Wendell Anderson

Gov. Wendell Anderson

The message was fairly clear; Minnesota’s growth was due to govenrment.

Now, I’m not so dogmatic a conservative as to say that government had no role in Minnesota’s growth.  In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that, given the mentality of the time, Minnesota’s state government was a capable partner with Minnesota’s huge, growing, thriving business and higher education communities.

I’m a uniter, not a divider.

But that was then.

Now?  To the Minnesota DFL, what once were tools are now entitlements.  “Local Government Aid” has switched from being a hand-up for outstate Minnesota into a vehicle for laundering spending for the DFL; the Metro area and Duluth get 2.5 times more money per capita than the rest of the state, and many outstate cities get no LGA at all; indeed, some are opting to do without it altogether.  It’s become a political football and, worse, just another entitlement program.

And the companies, big and small, who were once the key partners in this growth?  Who invested billions in infrastructure to create jobs in this state?  They’re still here – it’s a nice place to live.  Taxes don’t necessarily kill big companies, or drive them completely out of the jurisdiction.  Just as companies remain in high-tax hellholes like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, the Twins’ big-ticket employers, the Targets and Best Buys and 3Ms keep their headquarters’ here – but are sending their new jobs and new growth pretty exclusively elsewhere.

And yet the media, and its DFL-allied shills and cheerleaders like Nick Coleman and Lori Sturdevant, keep pining for the myth of the “Minnesota Miracle”, where (liberal) government leads the rest of society into a great glowing glorious future with everyone Happy To Pay For A Better Minnesota.

It’s garbage, of course.  Government, at the most, was a less-useless partner, even then, at a time when there was still such a thing as a moderate Democrat.  Nobody can say the same thing about today’s DFL.

Minnesota needs a new miracle.

We need the kind of miracle that Jersey City, NJ had in the nineties, when a conservative mayor, Brett Schundler, slashed taxes and regulation and focused his city on growth, security and education on a responsible budget.  Jersey City throve.

We need the kind of miracle that Texas – with its conservative government and hands-off approach to the market – is having; most of the jobs that are being created in the entire country are being created in Texas.

We need the kind of miracle they have in North Dakota as we speak, where a conservative government is cutting spending and rebating excessive tax collections.  (“But they have an oil boom going on!”, the lefties whinge.  How many states with boundless oil are sucking budget pond water right now?  What was the bumper sticker in Colorado – “Dear Lord – thanks for another oil boom; we promise not to screw it up this time?”  How many states have squandered limitless oil wealth on entitlements and are begging for more today?  Can you say Louisiana?)

We need the kind of miracle that Indiana is experiencing today, with government tightening its belt and getting out of the way of a market that is growing even as those of its surrounding, Democrat-controlled states, are reeling.

Government doesn’t give us “Miracles”, at least not when it comes to free market economics.  Government, at its very best, screws them up less.

Do I believe Tom Emmer’s plan will lead to another Minnesota Miracle – a miracle of the free market?

If the time is right, yes.  I do.  And at the very least, it will do vastly less harm than the Horner plan, to say nothing of Dayton’s hare-brained “plan”.

And, Lest The Media Miss It…

…the real story was this:  Mark Dayton dropped eight points in the SurveyUSA/KSTP poll.  Emmer was up four.  They’re in a statistical tie.

Leftybloggers point out that the crosstabs changed; this SUSA/KSTP poll had equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, while the previous one polled more Democrats.

Not enough more to completely explain an eight point drop, of course.

So Let Me Get This Straight

So according to the media, when then-Saint Paul mayor Randy Kelly – a moderate DFLer – endorsed George W. Bush for President in 2004, DFLers were right – says the media and the DFL – to repudiate him and chase him from public life…

…but today, when Arne Carlson – who endorsed Barack Obama and pointedly remained on the sidelines on Tim Pawlenty – speaks, we Republicans are supposed to bend a knee in reverence?

Especially since he represents exactly the sort of spend til you drop government that we conservatives are fighting against today?  The kind that Barack Obama and Mark Dayton support?

I haven’t figured that one out yet.

(The question came from regular commenter DiscoStoo, although not in exactly this form).

So You Wanted Specifics?

As this is rolling out, Tom Emmer is releasing the long-awaited Part 3 of the plan for his Administration – the re-engineering of how Minnesota government works.

It’s called “Living Within Our Means”, and it’s a tall order.

Here are the basics:

Minnesota Government Needs Fundamental Reform: Government must start to live within its means, rather than claiming a share of all income as an entitlement.

Economic Vitality And Fiscal Sustainability: Keeping government fat and happy at the expense of the entrepreneurs, the business community and the state’s hardest workers is no way to keep an economy running.  This needs to be a multipartisan effort.

Emmer Will Balance The Budget: Unlike Dayton, who swings and misses by over half a billion dollars (or maybe much, much more), Emmer’s budget is balanced and, as noted in Part 1 of The Plan, cuts taxes.

From the press release, here’s the plan:

Budget Plan Details:

1. Hold state spending in FY2012-13 to projected revenues minus job-creation tax relief.

I. Current state general fund spending (FY2010-11) is $30.7 billion

II. State revenue projections expect revenue to grow to $32.9 billion in FY2012-13

III. State government can perform its necessary functions within $33 billion over the next two years.

2. Reprioritize unsustainable, run-away human services spending to focus on the most vulnerable.

i. Refocus spending on programs for children and seniors which have been historically underfunded.

ii. Work with the legislature to reform programs for adults.

iii. Health and Human Services will total $9.6 billion; a $500 million increase in state funding.

3. Reform the relationship between state and local governments.

i. Reform Local Government Aid to focus solely on public safety and critical infrastructure needs.

ii. Give local governments relief from state mandates.

Put state government bureaucracies on a diet.

I. Cut bureaucracies and programs which are not fundamental to state government’s mission.

II. Reduce the government workforce through attrition and early-retirement.

III. Merge agencies to streamline decision making and reduce costs.

More – very, very much more – coming tomorrow.

But the important part is this;  the Emmer Budget does what Mark Dayton doesn’t have the guts or institutional wisdom to do; it cuts spending.  It pushes government to do better with what it can afford – meaning “what we the people can afford in these miserable economic times”.

Emmer attacks the disease.  Dayton merely throws other peoples’ money at the symptoms.

This is a game-changer.

Tomorrow in Shot In The Dark: The Emmer Budget Plan in detail, suitable for passing on to your friends, family and co-workers.

Dear DFL

For two months, the DFL and media (pardon, as always, the redundancy) asked “Where’s the Emmer budget plan?”  They knew, of course, that it’d be stupid for Emmer to launch his plan at a time when nobody but reporters, wonks, partisans and political junkies cared about it – but that’s not how the Frame Game is played.

But then Emmer came out with a plan, on Labor Day.  And it was a good one.  And it made the DFL’s chanting point look pretty stupid.

Then the gears switched; Emmer “didn’t give details” for his plan.

Wouldn’t the DFL feel stupid if Emmer suddenly dropped a pile of details?

Hm.

More soon.

Here’s A Prediction For You

If you look on the leftyblogs and on Twitter, you will see another surge of people referring to Tom Horner – the Independence Ventura party candidate – as “Republican Tom Horner”.  Especially since he was endorsed yesterday by “Republican” (albeit in name only ) former governor Arne Carlson.

In fact, I think it looks like a huge surge of this sort of spin-mongering.

I’m going to bet that means the Dayton camp has seen another poll showing Horner drawing vastly more DFLers than Republican likely voters.

The Dayton Dustbowl: The Media’s Code Of Silence

Gary Gross at Let Freedom Ring does the job the Twin Cities media juuuuust can’t seem to get around to (emphasis added by me):

During his mini-infomercial with Esme Murphy, Mark Dayton admitted that the highest income tax rate he’d propose would be less than 11 percent.

Based on Minnesota Department of Revenue guidelines, which I wrote about here, that means Dayton’s budget wouldn’t come close to balancing. Here’s what the guidelines say about revenue projections:

So how much money would boosting income tax rates actually deliver? According to the revenue department, each tenth-of-a-percent increase would currently bring in an additional $27 million annually, or $54 million each biennium.

Dayton said that he wouldn’t raise taxes more than 3 percentage points, meaning his tax the rich scheme would generate approximately $1,600,000,000 in additional revenue. Dayton also said that he’d raise property taxes on homes valued at more than $1,000,000.

Based on that information, and assuming that Dayton would essentially approve of the spending increases from last session’s budget bills, Dayton’s ‘detailed budget’ would fall at least $3,000,000,000 short of balancing.

It’s time that Minnesotans realized that Dayton’s supposed detailed budget isn’t a budget blueprint. It’s a tax increase. PERIOD. END OF DISCUSSION.

It is, literally, nothing more than throwing money at the deficit.

The Dayton “plan”…:

  • Does not solve the deficit: As Gary notes – but Esme Murphy for some reason won’t – Dayton’s budget comes up way short on its promise to “solve the deficit”.
  • Shifts the burden to the legislature, which could barely pass a $400 million tax hike in the 2008 session, will not be passing any huge tax increases in the next session, with the likely blood-letting among tax-and-spend DFLers
  • Will required Dayton to push the definition of “the rich” well down into the middle class:  if jacking up taxes on couples whose adjusged gross income is $150,000 a year leaves Dayton’s “plan” billions short, how far down will the definition of “rich” have to get pushed?

Here’s the biggest question of all:  Gary Gross asks some excellent questions.

Why the hell didn’t Esme Murphy ask any of this?

The simple fact is this – the media isn’t going to ask Mark Dayton any of the tough questions.

The Emmer Plan: Part Two

Just so we’re clear on this:  Mark Dayton’s education “plan” calls for three things:

  1. Gutting charter schools
  2. Ending federal-mandated testing
  3. Giving the teachers union a bunch of money.

To contrast with this, Tom Emmer is releasing his own plan, as we speak.

His education plan is focused on a few simple, key things:

  • ensure that K-12 funding is held harmless in the next biennium.
  • improve school results through broad reforms.
  • cutting mandates on schools

There are also reforms including  initiatives related to teacher effectiveness, kindergarten readiness,and – this oughtta be interesting – the redesign of teacher preparation programs.

And – this should play interestingly on the left – the state will repay the education shift to local school districts in accordance with state law.

Expect the DFL to respond “we really need a huge increase”, and for the union to say the only “reform” needed is more union teachers.

More later today.

How Many Renoirs?

The GOP is having a press conference at 10AM:

Republican Party of Minnesota leaders Garofalo, Sutton, and Brodkorb to call on Mark Dayton to come clean on all financial holdings outside of the state of Minnesota.

Hm.

Wonder if the GOP is just a “lazy-ass activist?”

The Plan, Part I

As this is written, Tom Emmer has just finished announcing Part One of his budget plan – the one that the DFL and the Chanting Class has been wondering about for the past two months.

To paraphrase James Carville, Part One is about the jobs, stupid.

Emmer is going to…:

  1. Lower The Corporate Income Tax. This will enable new businesses to get profitable faster, and allow large companies to stay that way – forestalling layoffs, enabling job additions, and addressing business’ #1 complaint about doing business in Minnesota, our top-in-the-nation business and corporate tax rates.
  2. Increase The “Angel” Investor Credit. “Angel” investors – people who are willing to take long shots on new companies that don’t yet have established sales, assets or revenues.  They are what get new companies off the ground, and allow them to survive and make payroll until they turn a profit – are in many ways the lynchpin of the new economy.  Of all “new economies”, really.  Angel Investors were the underpinning of much of the high-tech revolution that transformed our economy, and our lives really, for the past fifty years.  Currently, investors can deduct 25% of their investment (up to $125,000 from a $500,000 investment); Tom Emmer will increase that credit.
  3. Accelerate The Refunds From The Sales Tax Exemption On Capital Purchases.  Minnesota allows a refund of sales taxes on capital equipment –  in the tax cycle after the equipment is purchased.  Emmer will front-load that – essentially lopping sales taxes off of capital equipment, making it easier – 7% easier – for companies to buy the equipment they need, when they need it to be easiser, when they buy the equipment; freeing up 7-and-change-percent of the company’s revenue to do more important things – like hire people.

By the way – as noted above, Minnesota currently has a Sales Tax exemption for capital purchases. Someone tell alleged “smart guy” and “political expert” Tom Horner, who seems to believe that’s not the case.

From the Emmer press release:

The GOP candidate noted that all of the tax relief measures in his plan have received bipartisan support in the legislature and were endorsed by the 21st Century Tax Reform Commission in its 2009 report. Also, small and large companies alike will benefit from two of the three tax cuts in the Emmer Jobs Agenda, ensuring benefits to the broadest range of Minnesota employers, including those which make little or no profits.

More on this as the week progresses.

Over the next two weeks, we’ll see Emmer’s plan for reforming education and state regulatory processes.

My Conversation With Every Single DFLer, Part II

The conversation below is “Fake But Accurate”, and reflects things said – to me and otherwise – by DFLers in a variety of media over the past week or so.  I have synthethized those conversations into a single, “composite” character, whom I’ll nickname “EVERY DFLer” for clarity.

Don’t try this if you’re not an English major.

SCENE:  A coffee shop.  MITCH is sitting at table drinking black coffee.  EVERY DFLer walks by drinking an organic mo-chai-frapp-iato, recognizes MITCH.

EVERY DFLer: (Hisses).

MITCH:  (Notices ED):  Hey, what’s up?

EVERY DFLer:  Tom Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

MITCH: Of course he does.  He just hasn’t released it yet.

EVERY DFLer: That means he has no plan! HAHAHAHA!

MITCH: Well , no.  It means that he’s saving the plan for the campaign homestretch.  Because until sometime between Labor Day and Election Day, the only people who really care about politics, especially specifics of things like “plans”, are wonks, “journalists” and political junkies.  All releasing a plan right before people actually give a crap does is give the DFL time to frame it before any actual voters – including undecideds actually give a hoot.

EVERY DFLer:  Yabbut, Mark Dayton has a plan!

MITCH: Right.  And it’s full of holes and union swag and at the end of the day doesn’t even solve the problem it is putatively designed to deal with [Note:  the link goes to my “Dayton Dustbowl” category, which will be the subject of about ten posts on Tuesday – Ed.]

EVERY DFLer:  But he has a plan!  Emmer doesn’t!

MITCH:  Oh, I think you can count on seeing a plan starting to come out any day now.

EVERY DFLer: Yeah, but it’s not out now!  It doesn’t count!

MITCH: So when Emmer does come out with a plan, your entire attack falls flat…

EVERY DFLer:  No!  Because Emmer doens’t have a plan!

MITCH: But when he does come out with his plan…

EVERY DFLer:  Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

MITCH: But when he does come out with his plan…

EVERY DFLer:  Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

MITCH: But when he does come out with his plan…

EVERY DFLer:  Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

MITCH: But when he does come out with his plan

EVERY DFLer:  Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

EVERY DFLer:  Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

EVERY DFLer:  Emmer doesn’t have a plan!

MITCH: OK, let’s try a different tack, here. Let’s say, hypothetically, that a candidate – let’s call him “Ron Bremmer” – comes out with a plan to cut spending and hold the line on taxes, maybe even cut ’em, while re-engineering government so that it doesn’t eat up every nickel in overtaxation with frivolous spending when the times are good, like the DFL and the old, RINO MNGOP did from 1968 through 1992.  What then.

EVERY DFLer: …

MITCH:  Well?

EVERY DFLer: …

MITCH: It’s a hypothetical question.

EVERY DFLer: …

MITCH:  What would you do?

EVERY DFLer:   Your a racist who hates immigrants and gay people!

MITCH: No, I’m not.

EVERY DFLer:  Target!  Trigg Trigg Trigg Trigg!  Best Buy! What about the children?!?!

That pretty much covers it.

UPDATE:  Schwoops – someday just came!   Emmer is reportedly unveiling the first part of his plan later today.

Stay tuned.

How The Hell Does Emmer Win This Thing?

Let’s make no mistake about this; I’m predicting Tom Emmer is going to win this fall’s gubernatorial race.  It’s going to be tight – 3-4 points, very likely less – but he’s going to win.   On the chance – heaven forefend – that he doesn’t?  In the wake of Jesse Ventura and Al Franken, Minnesota will have proven itself a fundamentally un-serious people for all time to come.

But I have more faith in the people of this state than that.

Still, there’ve been some of my fellow Republicans – that is to say, Republicans, as opposed to conservatives – cracking under the pressure of the campaign.  I’ve talked with a few otherwise-stalwart GOPers who aren’t sure that Emmer can pull this off.

I am sure he can and will.  But let’s break it down.

Here’s how Emmer wins this election:

Endure: Dayton’s family and cronies have subjected Emmer to the most expensive, slimy smear campaign in the history of Minnesota politics.  And yet, according to the latest MPR/Humphrey Institute poll, Emmer is tied, inside a fairly generous margin of error, and plenty of undecideds in a year with a huge tailwind for the right conservative candidates.  He’s stood up to it well, taking a consistent high road – knowing, I suspect, that behind all the slime, Dayton’s really got nothing.

It’s gotta be hard, sitting and acting like a punching bag for a bunch of dirtballs like “Alliance for a Better Minnesota”.  But eventually even bags of slime empty out.  And while the people of Minnesota have long shown a capacity for electing the shamefully bizarre – Ventura, Franken, even Perpich – these mood of the voter is not as dissipate as it was in 1998, and there’s no way Franken would have won without the Democrat tide in 2008.  All that remains, then, is to fill in the vacuum.

With what?

Be Tom Emmer: I’ve been saying it for three months now; when people meet Mark Dayton, they walk away feeling…weird.  On the other hand, when people meet Tom Emmer, even opponents get won over by the guy; if not by his policies, then by his energy and personality and regular-schnook bonhomie.

More importantly – much much more importantly?  When I first encountered Emmer the Candidate about a year ago, in a couple of radio interviews I did with him as both a host and a panelist, I noticed he has a gift that is exceedingly rare among partisans on the right or left; the ability to address a room full of people who don’t start out agreeing with him, and getting them to at least consider what he was to say.  It’s the same gift Ronald Reagan had; the ability to move people from “the center” over to him.

And it shows; in the gubernatorial debates I’ve seen, Emmer has mopped the floor with Dayton and Horner; Dayton comes across as a mumbling, skittery, dissipated professor; Horner, a PR flak who forgot his talking point sheet and is going from a very short list of lines he remembers.

Which is why I suspect you won’t see all that much media coverage of this year’s debates; Emmer, in person, is a dynamo.  The more people know and see that, the better he does.

The Plan:  The left has dusted off an old chanting point.  Last June, they were demanding to see the specifics of Emmer’s plan.   They’ve been doing their best to frame a plan whose details they know very little as yet about.  The chanting points, on the blogs, Twitter and the Strib, are growing increasingly desperate; “Where is it?  Since we haven’t seen it, it must not exist!  It’s probably just tax cuts!  That did SO well so far, didn’ t  it?”

The pace of the framing is picking up because the DFL knows it’s out there.  And, with the likes of Annette Meeks and the rest of Emmer’s policy crew working on it, it’s gonna be a doozy.

What’s in it?  I dunno.  I’m not on the campaign.  Never have been.  Oh, I can speculate – indeed, next week, I will.  In great depth.

But everyone from Emmer and Meeks on down to lil’ ol’ me knows this is the game-maker – and the game-breaker, potentially.  In a year that is more friendly to government reform than any in history, The Plan will be Emmer’s opportunity to throw Dayton and his pathetic “tax the rich” ( who make over $130,000 a year) plan on defensive for good.  A chance to show that there’ll be a grownup at the helm.

It’s a huge chance.

Like all huge chances, it could break good, or break bad.  My bet is on “good”.  Overwhelmingly so.

And that’s what the DFL is betting on, too.  It’s why a candidate like Dayton – rich, with 100% name recognition and “experience” – needs to throw such an incredibly slimy campaign, and call in so many markers from the media to insulate him.

As I noted in my original piece on the subject, Emmer is right to wait on releasing The Plan.  He’s going to be outspent three or more to one, to be sure – but the race, and most of the talk about it, so far has been among the wonks and the political junkies.  And all of them made up their minds about the time I did.

But The Plan should impact right about the time the people who really matter – the undecided voters – start to realize there’s an actual campaign going on and that they should pay it some attention.  And that window starts to creak open in about the next couple of weeks.

Take Back “Miracle”:  This is the big one, as far as I’m concerned.

It was forty years ago that the DFL stole the term “Miracle”.  The “Minnesota Miracle” was huge expansion of the Minnesota economy; it was accompanied by the institution of a huge government wealth-redistribution plan designed to subsidize poorer parts of the state with money from the then-wealthy Twin Cities.   It’s been presented over the past forty years as if the redistribution program caused the blooming of Minnesota as a business, educational and population center, as if Minnesota – a place blessed with immense resources and 150 years as the transportation, commercial, social and demographic hub of the entire north-central United States – would have remained a desultory backwater forever without “Local Government Aid”.

The fossils of the “Miracle” have been perverted over the years into a money-laundering scheme to help the DFL-dominated governments in the Twin Cities and Duluth hide their spending.

This is the “Miracle” at 40.

Emmer realizes, rightly, that there needs to be a new “Miracle” in Minnesota – one that puts government back in its proper role, and otherwise stays out of the way of Minnesotans’ natural industry and energy.

That’s the right message in this day and age.

No matter how much mindless flak the other side puts up.

Just So We’re Clear On This

I do believe Mark Dayton taught high school.

I believe it because it’d be grindingly stupid for a public figure to lie about something that is as relatively easy to run down (even given New York City’s sclerotic bureaucracy) as whether he actually taught.

And even if Mark Dayton were unaware of how nothing remotely public is secret from The Cloud – and it’s possible, since the last time he ran for office there were no blogs, and The Cloud and crowdsourcing were the stuff of futurists’ jabberings – he’s got people on his staff who, by all accounts, should.

So yeah, I suspect Dayton probably taught for a couple of years.  Because he put his teaching experience in his bio for a reason – to burnish his “I understand the plight of the commoners” cred, which might be suspect, given his plutocratic pedigree.

So yes; I’ll accept Dayton worked as a teacher.  But I’d be interested in knowing where.  And with whom.

Charlie Quimby has a quote from the director of the “Peace Corps”-like program for whom Dayton worked, right out of Yale in the late sixties.

Mark taught on the Lower East Side where my headquarters were located. He was one of the first to come into the program, along with a number of recent Yale graduates, and I knew him quite well. He did a very good job and the conditions were in some ways more demanding than the Peace Corps.

It is indeed contemptible that anyone would attempt to claim that Mark did not teach in the New York City public schools or deny his youthful idealism.

In other words, “shut up, madding peasants!”.

Still, we’re getting closer.  Dayton taught on “the Lower East Side”.  Quimby even intimates that he taught at a “PS65”, on the Lower East Side.

Well bully!  Now we’re getting closer!

But so far what we have is the word of a training program director, and a copy of his license that was apparently delivered to…the address of the training program.

Look – as I’ve said, I believe that Dayton taught.  And as the grandson, son and brother of teachers, I do truly want to “deny his youthful idealism”, heaven forfend.  Teaching is an important job; if he actually was a teacher, it improves my opinion of him ever so slightly (and, commensurately, if he is, heaven forfend, lying about it, it’ll certainly tank whatever respect I may have had for him, little as that may be).

So would it kill Dayton to simply say “I taught for two years at PS65; my principal was Lev Abramowiec”, or wherever?

Because what we have so far are…:

  • Dismissive huffing from an educational “community organizer” who assures us that Dayton taught for his program, but doesn’t apparently go into details.  In the spirit of inquiry, I’ll ask anyone to stop me if I’m wrong.
  • A copy of a teachers license delivered, apparently, to the address of the program above.  A teachers license proves that someone was deemed qualified to teach, and that they passed their student teaching evaluations, and a bunch of classes in pedagogy and psychology (“Theory of the Eraser 351”, my dad – who only taught for forty years so, plus a couple stints teaching teachers – called ’em).

Well, it proves that Mark Dayton could have been a teacher, all right.  It doesn’t actually put him in a classroom, but I’m sure that’s just a formality.

So would it kill the campaign to give us a school name?  A principal?

Quimby signs off by saying he really, really doesn’t like uppity peasants asking questions of their betters:

If you find something factual that refutes me [which would be difficult, since the only facts in the linked piece are the one-time existence of a lower-east-side school], please do get back to my readers in the comments. I’ll be in Turkey, where that nation has an election that may move it every closer to democratic rule.

Otherwise, it would be a good idea not to raise questions when you really don’t know the answers.

It makes you look like an ass.

Sometimes it surely does.

And sometimes it leads to other questions, which lead to bigger answers than you’d ever dreamed.

Continue reading

Stolen Fervor?

My dad taught high school – writing, English and especially Speech – for close to forty years.  He taught in two districts – Rugby and Jamestown, ND.  It’s not hard to prove it; everyone in Jamestown either had dad, or their kids did, or their parents did.  There were not a few two-generation families of students in that town.

Of course, you could ask him about it.  He’ll probably tell you all you wanna hear.  He’s kinda proud of the work he did.  Justifiably so.

Any good teacher should be!

So yesterday, Sheila Kihne at Activist Next Door noted that her Freedom Of Information (FOI) request to the NYC School District came up with no record of a Mark B. Dayton having been employed there forty-odd years ago.

Now, it could be that the bureaucrats reponding to the FOI request did their perfunctory least to answer Sheila’s question.  It could be that someone typed “Mark V. Dayton” instead of “Mark B. Dayton” into a computer.  It could be, as a commenter on Sheila’s post noted, that the forty-year-old teacher records aren’t on the computer yet.  It could be that, being civil service employees in the most sclerotic bureaucracy east of Chicago, they really don’t give a rat’s ass.

But Mark Dayton could settle this right now; we know he’s not above settling the things he wants to settle – he just released his NY teaching license, which at least proves he went to college and got certified.  Yay!

That’s how easily he could shut down those who are asking the questions about his classroom time.  It’d take about five seconds.  Just tell the world – where did he teach, and when?

Because a teacher should be proud of the work they did.

Chanting Points Memo: Polls Apart

While Pauline Kael, the doyenne of American film critics, passed away years ago, her syndrome is alive and well here in Minnesota.

Yesterday’s MPR/Humphrey Institute poll, which showed Mark Dayton and Tom Emmer in a dead heat, drew a chorus of “bad methodology!” from the local leftysphere; none of their friends, after all, voted for Emmer!

Jeff Rosenberg at MNPublius says the methodology just can’t be right, because it didn’t poll enough latté-guzzling hipsters:

The poll was based on a “landline, random-digit dial survey.”

Landline? Are you kidding me? I wonder how many younger voters were missed. Not having a landline, I could never have been contacted for this poll.

Perhaps.  The first time I heard this excuse was 2004, when an earlier generation of leftybloggers – Chuck Olson, if memory serves – swore that the polls were undercounting John Kerry supporters because “…I don’t know anyone with a landline, all my friends use cell phones”, too.  I don’t know how much weight to put on this; most people still do have landlines; the younger crowd that may not have ’em is also less likely to vote than the general population.  And MPR says they thought of this: “The survey data has also been weighted to accomodate for factors such as the number of telephone lines, cell phone usage, gender, age, race and ethnicity to approximate the demographic characteristics of the state’s population according to the Census”.  Did MPR and the HHHI do a good job of compensating?  Time will tell.  As an Emmer supporter, I certainly hope so.

Rosenberg:

Maybe that helps to account for the poll’s likely-voter model:

Republican: 46%

Democrat: 41%

Independent: 13%

You’ll have to excuse me if I don’t buy that. The oversampling of Republicans is yet another reason to suspect that this poll overstates the extent to which the race has actually narrowed.

Only if you have become accustomed to a diet of “Star/Tribune Minnesota Polls”, which tend to poll “registered voters”, who are less likely to vote.

The MPR/HHHI poll is likely voters.  Republicans are energized this year; the Tea Party is turning out conservatives in a way Minnesota and the rest of the nation hasn’t seen since 1994.  I’ve seen not a few Dems complain that the DFL usually tops the GOP in voter ID in Minnesota.  This is a fact – among registered voters and random respondents.  Among likely voters – people who will go to the polls come hell or high water?  That number varies widely.

How widely?  Let’s go back to 2006.  The GOP was reeling and groggy; the DFL was on a roll.  And in October of ’06 the state broke down at 48% DFL, 37% GOP,  13% Independence Ventura Party, and 2% everyone else.

We know how that turned out; Pawlenty held on by the skin of his teeth. The GOP lost all the other Constitutional offices, and lost control of the Senate.  Gil Gutknecht got sent packing; Michele Bachmann won by only 8% against a weak candidate in a solid red district that’ll send her back to DC with a two-digit majority this year.

Now – were there 11% more Democrats than GOPers throughout the entire population of Minnesota?  Of course not.  But among those that were planning on going out to vote, there was a pretty serious DFL majority.

The leftyblogosphere seems to think it’s unthinkable that the tables have turned.

Mr. D covered it as well, on his blog and on the MinnPost:

You can look at this a number of ways. Here are a few things I’d suggest:

  • Dayton and his minions (and I would include Matt Entenza in that collection) have spent millions of dollars demonizing Tom Emmer all summer long, with very little response from the Emmer camp. If the best they are able to do is get a tie, that doesn’t bode well for Dayton.

That’s the part that’s gotta be keeping DFL strategists up all night; after running the most expensive sleaze campaign in Minnesota history, they’re way inside the margin of error.

  • There’s no point in pretending that Emmer’s campaign hasn’t had a few hiccups up to this point. The tip credit flap was an unforced error and he’s been slow to respond to some of the calumnies that have been heaped upon him thus far. While it’s good to see him starting to respond now, his passivity has been puzzling and often maddening. It’s not what we saw in the primary.

I figured that this was about “keeping the powder dry” until the final kick, the last six weeks before the election where the undecideds’ decisions really get made.  I figured Emmer was saving his big plan for cutting spending and re-engineering state government until it’d do him some good; I have solid reason to believe I’m right.

Emmer’s been absolutely scrupulous about running a clean campaign; when Ed and I interviewed him this past Saturday, he insisted he doesnt’ refer to Mark Dayton and the DFL as “the opposition”.  That’s idealism for you.  It’s also swimming against the tide of sleaze that “Alliance for a Better Minnesota” has unleashed.  Will it work?

We’ll see.

(In the meantime, he’s got us bloggers and talk show people for the rough stuff…)

  • The current economic conditions in Minnesota aren’t as dire as they are in, say, Nevada, which has allowed Dayton to run the sort of campaign that would have been laughed off elsewhere. That could change, though. One thing worth remembering is that many voters will start seeing the first fruits of Obamacare in October, when they get the bad news about their insurance premiums going up. That won’t help the standard-bearer of the party that is responsible for these increases.

And that – the emerging reality of the Demcrats’ tax debacle, and the true price tag of Dayton’s insane plan – along with Emmer’s actual plan, when it impacts (and we are in the home stretch), is going to be a huge game-changer.  Properly presented to Minnesota, it should leave Dayton stumbling around like a cow that’s been stunned.

Finally, Joe Bodell from Minnesota “Progressive” Project:

If it takes an 8-point oversample in Tom Emmer’s favor to get him up to a tie, I feel pretty great about Mark Dayton’s chances in a real electorate in which younger, cell-phone-only voters show up.

Except Bodell is comparing apples (likely voters) with axles (out-of-date registered voter ID numbers).  Does the poll oversample GOP voters?  Perhaps, but Bodell wouldn’t be able to quantify it with the numbers he’s using.

But aside from the weird methodology, check out the published crosstabs:

1. Independent voters:

Undecided: 38%

Horner: 26%

Dayton: 23%

Emmer: 13%

There’s a lot of room for movement there, but there is virtually no way Emmer picks up significant enough ground among independent voters to make a dent in the overall results. Keep in mind that this is a mid-term election, and the non-partisan vote is generally going to be a lot lower than it is in presidential years, so given a normal partisan breakdown…

That’s all textbook conventional wisdom.  But many, many independents that stayed home in 2002 or 2006 are looking at their tax bills and health insurance today, and making plans for November 2.  Which group of ’em is more likely to show up?

2. The gender gap: MPR’s writeup indicates that there’s no significant gender gap — that women are currently favoring Mark Dayton by a similar margin to men favoring Tom Emmer. However, what they fail to mention directly is that the sample includes 52% women (about normal for Minnesota) which is yet another built-in advantage for Dayton. Again, given a more reasonable partisan sample, this will go straight through to the final results of this election.

Let me shorten that: “Given that MPR took a legitimate sampling of women, and a sampling error I can’t really quantify, I’m crossing my fingers”.

3. Age gap? MPR doesn’t appear to have published the support breakdowns by age, only the sample sizes — which look weird in and of themselves, since it’s a decent bet the senior vote will be bigger than this poll indicates.

I’m lost; did MPR not publish the breakdowns, or did they just publish senior numbers?

Look – this is going to be a tough race for Emmer.  There’s never been any doubt about it.  He’s fighting a 3:1 financial disadvantage, and a big, powerful political machine with 100% name recognition in a blue state.  He’s fighting against the most scabrous, truth-free smear campaign in Minnesota political history.  He’s the underdog.

All he’s got is a tailwind of revulsion with Obama, a very weak (and possibly potemkin) opponent, a soon-t0-come plan, and his own skills as a campaigner.

Even seems fair, so far.