The latest Rothenberg Report should put a damper on the regional left’s most-treasured shibboleth. Along with Erik Paulsen in the Third District, Michele Bachmann’s race has been promoted from “Republican Favored” to not even competitive.
U.S. Reps. Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen have been dropped from the Rothenberg Political Report’s list of competitive House races. Previously the the two contests had been rated as “Republican favored.”
Rothernberg is bullish on the party as a whole…:
Stuart Rothenberg is predicting wide gains for the GOP in November. So far in this election cycle, he has moved 44 contests towards the Republicans, while just four races have become more favorable for Democrats.
“Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen,” Rothenberg writes. “At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.”
That doesn’t mean Republicans, and Tea Partiers, should let off the pressure. We really need to do two things; deliver the Dems a defeat even more crushing than Clinton took in 1994, something that’ll send a generational message; “don’t socialize the US” (and, preferably, also make the Dems a third party, sooner or later).
And above all, we all need to make sure a big victory doesn’t make the GOP complacent. This vote, as it stands now, will be a referendum on Obama, not an approval of any coherent vision in the alternative from the GOP. Other than a few obstreporous conservatives like Bachmann, there really is no competing vision from the GOP yet.
And as we found in 1994, and Obama found in 2008, referenda against a sitting or departing adminsitration have short legs.