Notice how many Democrats and media people (ptr) are gaslighting working Americans about the economy lately?
The Dow Jones and the level of GDP is nice and all, but inflation is rising faster than buying power, and is going to get worse before it gets better, if it gets better.
First, the honest financial experts that I know, have told me that we’ve actually been in a recession since March of 2023.
Second, a bull stuff story, based on a “poll exclusively conducted for the Guardian” tells you all you need to know.
And what do we have to thank for our booming economy? Why, the youth and vigor of Joe Biden, of course!
“Wrongly believe” meaning “under the new measurement.”
People wrongly believe I’m shorter than Mitch. That’s because they’re bitterly clinging to their old 12-inch rulers. I’ve adopted a new measurement, according to which I’m over a mile tall, nearly two miles, same as Alice.
Change the formula to measure GDP and suddenly, prosperity! Change the formula to measure inflation and suddenly, prosperity! Change the formula to measure consumer satisfaction and suddenly, prosperity! So why is my cupboard bare?
Something disgustingly amusing about “journalists” is that they always, eventually, reveal themselves as the annoying suck-up teacher’s pets that they were in elementary school. They just luv contradicting their “naughty” classmates to gain brownie points with Miss Larson (or whomever). And so, Mr roly-poly teacher’s pet extraordinaire, Brian Stelter, energetically raises his hand (I know, I know) and pops up with an “actually…”.
The term “recession” has, over the years, has become watered down to mean anything bad economically (kinda like fascism means anything bad politically). The media can thank themselves for this.
The term recession is rarely used correctly and, truth be told, we are not in the midst of one at present. Those 55% of people who think we are in a recession are, in fact, wrong, but they are using the term as a proxy to indicate that their personal finances suck. And rather than deal with this fact, journalists like Stelter and the Guardian, get all technical so as to wave away the financial concerns of thousands who are having trouble making ends meet.
Who ya gonna believe, your lying experts or your lying eyes? I’ll keep thinking it, a person can’t hate the media enough.
Thanks to Biden, the whole nation knows something Dave Ramsey says all the time; it’s beans and rice time.
Thank you JDM for illustrating my point
We are not in a recession under the new way of measuring the economy but we are in a recession under the old way of measuring it. So why the change?
Was the economy actually thriving during the Great Depression but we were measuring it wrong? Is the economy actually terrible now but the new measurement hides it?
Mr Jones, it is my understanding that high inflation (and climbing) is *not* a marker of a recession. We have high inflation: we are not in a recession.
Regarding inflation and recession, it’s a neat trick where the government can underestimate inflation, and thus mask the reality of declining real GDP. An interesting point of reference is that net worth has been going down during the Biden administration, which ordinarily would be considered a sign of recession, if not proof thereof.
bike;
Kinda like the big job gains that Pedo Pete touts every month, only to have them adjusted downward an average of 30% a week later. Of course, Barackus Obamanus I set the standards for manipulation of the jobs numbers.
JDM, let’s define our terms, see where that gets us. Oops, can’t. A “recession” is defined differently by different economists at different times. Even the professionals can’t agree what it means.
There was a major change in 2013 but the general public remembers the old definition so let’s use that: two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product. That ought to be easy enough to measure, right? The basic formula is GDP = C + G + I + NX where C = consumption or all private consumer spending within a country’s economy, including, durable goods, non-durable goods, and services; G = total government expenditures, including salaries of government employees, road construction/repair, public schools, and military expenditure; I = sum of a country’s investments spent on capital equipment, inventories, and housing; NX = net exports or a country’s total exports less total imports.
Trouble is, that formula is easy to manipulate. If Biden sends a billion dollars to Iran, it counts as “G = government spending” even thought not one dime of it will circulate in the American economy. If C = Consumer Spending is up 10% but inflation is running 15%, then consumption hasn’t gone up at all, it actually went down when adjusted for inflation, but the formula doesn’t account for that, either. Yes, there are formulas which do account for those factors, but they’re not the ones touted by MSNBC.
Worse, the change in 2013 messed with the formula itself. A personal computer that cost $1,000 in 2019 now costs $1,500 but it’s faster and has more memory so the increase in productivity justifies the price hike and for purposes of the formula, economists call that “growth.” Except it cost you an extra $500 out of your pocket leaving you poorer than before so did the economy really grow or not?
If Biden quit giving money to Ukraine and Gaza and Iran, “G = government spending” would no longer offset the dramatic drop in inflation-adjusted consumer spending that we know exists because we see it in restuarant closings and dismal earnings statements.
Democrats can’t afford to admit the economy is all smoke and mirrors. The party will be over when Trump gets elected and the spending ends, just in time for Democrats to say “See? See? The economy was great under Biden but Trump RUINED it!”
They are lying now and they’ll be lying then. Don’t fall for the lies.
By the way, Vox Day has a good explanation of this problem in “Return of the Great Depression.” I think the chapter is called something like “Why nobody knows anything.” He explains how subtle changes in formulas used to calculate economic performance lead to politically desireable results rather than objectively truthful measurements. Available on Amazon in hardcover.
Yes, I know, Vox can be an ass. I’ve been reading him for 20 years and I’ve solemnly proclaimed him an idiot more times than I can remember. But as infuriating as he can be, he’s also been proven right a lot more than I care to admit. Give his book a read, see what you think.
Mr Jones, as enjoyable to read and informative as ever, but I don’t understand. I feel like we’re having a wild agreement. You write about how the technical details of economic terms in general and recessions in particular can be and are manipulated; I agree with every bit of it. And I say – or I thought I did – that it is irrelevant because if/when normal people use the term recession (which they don’t unless cornered in a stupid poll of some sort), it means that they and those they know are having financial difficulties.
As for Vox. He used to be a daily go-to but he’s gotten too creepy and obsessive for me to enjoy anymore (for example, his creepy and obsessive preoccupation with (killing) Boomers has become disagreeably tedious). As an economics thinker, Vox is a proponent for periodically cancelling everyone’s debts in some sort of national cleansing. As I recall, he has no problem with the Biden regime’s cancellation of student debt. I admit I’m too stupid to see the advantages of national policy of rewarding deadbeats and fucking over those who honorably paid off their debts as well as those who lent out money. And I guess this colors my perception of Vox as anything more than an interesting aside when it comes to economics.
Apropos Vox and recessions (or not), but this is from Vox the other day. I can’t speak to the significance, but it seems bad.
Restaurants closing in 2024:
Fuddruckers is expected to close ALL locations by the end of the year
Old Country Buffet is closing ALL remainder locations
IHOP is closing 100 locations
Buffalo Wild Wings is closing ALL Canada locations as well as 60 locations in the US
Applebee’s is closing 35 locations
Red Lobster is closing 50 locations as they enter bankruptcy
Denny’s is closing 20 locations by the end of the year
Marie Callender’s is shutting down ALL remainder locations
Pizza Hut is planning to close 500 locations
Outback Steakhouse is closing 41 of their 700 locations
Sai Baro is closing a total of 50 locations with majority being mall locations
Mard Pizza is closing a total of 27 locations
Ruby Tuesday is closing 16 more locations in 2024.
BDQ is closing 8 of their 59 locations.
Joe’s Crab Shack is closing 41 of their 60 locations
Bonefish Grill is closing 7 locations
This is what cultural and economic decline looks like.
^ … or as they might say on smalldeadanimals, I’m sure it’s nothing.