All That DFL Happy Talk About The Economy…

is baked wind.

 Minnesota lost 4,200 jobs in July, and is adding them at an anemic pace year-to-date:

State officials said Thursday that Minnesota employers shed a seasonally adjusted 4,200 jobs in July. Meanwhile, they also revised June’s numbers downward by 3,600 jobs.

That means that, year-to-date, Minnesota has added a meager 2,900 jobs, or about 400 per month, on an adjusted basis.

During July, the education and health services sector lost 5,300 jobs. Information shed 1,000; construction, 700; financial activities, 200; and government, 100.

The sectors that added jobs: trade, transportation, and utilities (up 1,600); manufacturing (700); leisure and hospitality (600); and other services (200). Logging and mining, and professional and business services held steady.

Look for the Alliance for a Better Minnesota’s lie machine to fabricate a lot of phony economic happytalk in the next ten weeks; as we discussed earlier, they’re off to a running start.

No – a lot.

54 thoughts on “All That DFL Happy Talk About The Economy…

  1. Yes, because it would have been HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, if Minnesota had lost just 1400 jobs like Wisconsin instead of the 4200 jobs we actually lost.

    I bet that if you talked to the guys that administer unemployment insurance, they could give you the names of 2800 people who think you’re full of it, Emery. And hey, how about a comparison with North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, or Nebraska?

  2. One other note; it was education and ….medical services…..that lost the most jobs in Minnesota, oddly enough just as the provisions for the Health Insurance Deform Act were coming into effect. Hmmm…..I wonder why that is? I sure hope this is pointed out in election commercials.

  3. I would bet a dollar that Emery has a spouse, close relative, or close friend who is a current or recent state employee for WI. He seems to have memorized the talking points they push through there union members.

  4. Sorry PM, not a soul. The stats are from the BLS and Wisconsin’s Department of Workforce Development (DWD). Perhaps you could give them your ’cause and correlation’ speech.

    On a personal note, I spend 4 weeks of the winter X-Country skiing and training on the Birkie trails near Drummond WI The American Birkebeiner is my favorite race of the season and the folks in Hayward do a wonderful job hosting the event.

  5. The reason I accused you of passing on partisan gibberish, Emery, is because there seems to be no connection between what Walker has done as governor and the state of the Wisconsin economy. The only thing I can think of, other than his generally pro-business and ant-public-union policies is that he turned down fed money to build a boondoggle of a light rail system. You seem to be against these boondoggles.
    Wisconsin is a poor case study of conservative vs. statist economic policies. There are too many bohunks between Milwaukee and Racine. Eastern WI is Rust Belt in a way that MN is not. Howabout you compare MN and North Dakota?

  6. At one point the Kenosha AMC plant had 14,000 employees. That plant was demolished in the last 4 years. Since 2008 GM closed their truck plant, Delphi closed two of their plants, and Chrysler closed up all their operations. That’s a lot of rust belt losses to recover from.

  7. I wasn’t aware of petroleum reserves in MN.
    OK, ND, TX, are blessed with petroleum reserves. But you go ahead and beat that straw man, beat it good.

  8. Emery:

    Thank you for causing me to have to check out the stats from the WI agency you’re totting.

    At the end of December 2013 according to that agency which you totted Wisconsin had employment of 2,751,845.

    In June 2014 according to that agency which you totted Wisconsin had employment of 2,906,100.

    Unless my public school education is letting me down let alone my calculator that is a gain of 154,255. Which is about 153,000 more than Minnesota generated.

    It looks like Minnesota can learn a lot from the policies of Scott Walker.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  9. Pow:

    Um Wisconsin has gain 154,255 jobs this year versus Minnesota generating 2,900. I say that makes Wisconsin a good case study especially compared to Minnesota.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  10. Lets see:

    During the last 18 months Minnesota passed an income tax increase while Wisconsin did tax cuts.

    During the last 18 months Minnesota passed a warehouse tax and farm implement tax while Wisconsin didn’t do that.

    The result this year Wisconsin is now growing 154,255 jobs versus 2,900 for Minnesota.

    Seems like those tax increases are slowing down the economy.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  11. We do have the Flint Hills Pine Bend refinery in Rosemount which is updating and expanding it’s facility. But alas, no oil reserves capable of impacting MN’s economy as the oil production in ND has impacted theirs.

    Kel is correct, we do have mining opportunities in northern MN. I haven’t seen data that would imply the (mining) employment opportunities could rival that of oil production in ND or elsewhere.

  12. “Minnesota not only contains identified resources of iron, copper, and nickel, but also has potential for developing gold, zinc, platinum, and other minerals of local, national, and global importance. Extraction and processing of these mineral resources could form the basis for enhanced local and regional economies.”
    The Greenies in the Cities will never allow this.
    Koch Brothers!

  13. Emery:

    So do you have an explanation for why Minnesota with just 2,900 jobs gained is much better off than Wisconsin which has over 150,000 jobs gained or are you just trying to pretend that data doesn’t existence?

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  14. A one month trend is trend. It is called a “one month trend”. Maybe you mean “single data point”? The only person who can draw a trend line from a single data point is Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman:
    You can’t trust Nobel Prize winners on economics. You can trust me, however. I am not an ideologue.

  15. Emery:

    What I did was go to the source just like you told us to do! Your own words were your stats were from the BLS. So I checked on how many jobs they said that the state of Wisconsin had at the end of December 2013 Wisconsin had 2,751,845 jobs.

    At the end of June 2014 they said that Wisconsin had 2,906,100 jobs.

    Now you hailed this organization as providing accurate numbers and I went to their website which you asked me to.

    That is a gain of 154,255 jobs.

    Minnesota has gained just 2,900 jobs.

    Now if the point of your graph is that Wisconsin is doing poorly that means that if the Minnesota data is plotted like Wisconsin was then Minnesota will be doing even worse than Wisconsin.

    You’re trying to claim by using BLS data that Wisconsin is doing worse than Minnesota.

    I’m sorry to tell you where I went to school 2,900 is less than 154,255 which means that Minnesota is doing worse than Wisconsin unlike the claim you’re trying to make.

    So Emery thanks for showing that Mark Dayton has screwed up Minnesota’s economy and we should adopt policies which Wisconsin is doing to generate their great economic growth.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  16. Oh Emery I forgot six months is longer than a one month trend. You can’t even try to get away with claiming that I present just a one month trend!

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  17. Mr. Hansen:
    Thank you for your thoughtful reply. If you had gone through the trouble, you would find Wisconsin employment as of June is 2.5% higher than it was in 2011. Minnesota’s was 3.5%. That is a 40% difference.

    “The gap is even more pronounced using the more precisely measured establishment series. Then the Wisconsin figure is 4.0% versus the Minnesota 5.7% — a 43% difference. I’d say those are economically significant differences.”

  18. Mr. Hansen:
    I failed to mention there were downward revisions to both nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, pushing down the rather dismal June growth rates.

    PM: Mr Krugman would earn my respect if he were to evaluate and critique both liberals and conservatives equally.

  19. Sorry Mr. Hansen, I should have made clear those ‘downward revisions’ were Wisconsin’s employment numbers.

    Isn’t the point to compare states after a change was implemented to increase employment? Did it work?

  20. “PM: Mr Krugman would earn my respect if he were to evaluate and critique both liberals and conservatives equally.”
    It’s a matter of willful deceit. If Krugman wrote a positive column about conservatives he would find a way to lie in it.
    The reason he used a single data point in the graph here:
    isn’t the result of an honest mistake. If he had included the previous point it would have been clear to the reader that he had chosen two atypical points in order to create a trend that did not exist. He chose a derivative that was not representative of the curve while claiming it was representative of the curve.
    I’ve heard that Krugman’s academic work is very non-ideological. I honestly don’t see how he can cleanly separate the rabid, dishonest partisan from the academic. I wonder what a close look at his scholarly research would reveal?

  21. BTW, Emery, this is an example of a strawman argument (regarding the Brown shooting):

    This should go without saying, but vaguely intimidating photos of you do not give the police carte blanche to gun you down, and we no longer live in a country where it is OK to sentence black men to death for the crime of petty theft.

    No one has said that it is OK to sentence people to death for petty theft, or that the police should be able to “gun you down” for appearing in ‘vaguely intimidating photo”.
    The cop who shot brown was unaware of any theft or any pictures.
    According to its “About” page, “The Daily Beast delivers award-winning original reporting and sharp opinion from big personalities in the arenas of politics, pop-culture, world news and more.”

  22. Emery:

    The fact that you can’t figure out the correct spelling of my name shows that you don’t care about the facts that you are trying to present. To quote a radio show I listened to, “Lie of the Day!”

    Now if your argument is that Minnesota was far better off in 2011 than Wisconsin what happened the previous eight years?

    In Minnesota there was a Republican governor who was vetoing bills that would’ve hurt the economy thus helping put Minnesota in good shape for governor Dayton. I didn’t notice you praising the job Tim P did to help put Minnesota in the good position which you’re citing. In 2011 and 2012 Governor Dayton was stopped from doing horrible things by the Republican legislature. I didn’t notice you praising the job that the Republican state House and Senate did to keep us in good shape. In 2013 given a Democrat controlled state House and Senate he was able to get a massive jump in spending, an increase in the minimum wage, a Senate office building, and two billion dollars in tax increases the 2,900 growth in jobs for six months in 2014 clearly shows that these policies are wrong for the Minnesota. The point you were trying to make on Scott Walker.

    Now in Wisconsin in 2011 when Walker took over he took over after eight years of a liberal democrat governor. The results when compared with Minnesota shows that Walker has Wisconsin on the right track.

    After all in 2014 according to the source you cite and defend Wisconsin has gained 154,255 for the first six months of this year. So when compared with Minnesota that indicated going into the future Wisconsin is in much better shape with Scott Walker’s leadership compared with Minnesota if they keep Mark Dayton.

    And keep in mind Walker when he took office the rate was 7.1% he cut it down to 5.7% (by the way these are numbers from the agency you praised so I caught you in another lie). He’s turned Wisconsin around without a tax increase and adding dramatically to state spending. Man I wonder what could happen in Minnesota if we did that? Oh that’s right the Republicans as I pointed out was doing that between 2002 and 2012.

    So Emery feel to keep trying to lie away, but we all know the truth that Scott Walker is doing a far better job for the people of Wisconsin than Mark Dayton and the Democrats are doing for Minnesota.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  23. Mark Dayton, like virtually all Democrats and DFL’rs, believe that government should take as much money as possible out of the private sector and put it into government. The very first thing I learned in econ 101 is that human needs are infinite. There is literally never enough money to fill every need.
    Shifting money to the public sector impacts growth. There is no multiplier to government spending (unless it’s borrowed). Keynes knew this, he wrote the equation.
    If the people of MN (or WI) are willing to sacrifice economic growth in return for more government services, that’s there business. What I don’t like is the lie that taxation does not reduce growth below what it would be without taxation.

  24. Mr. Hanson:
    Thank you once again for your thoughtful reply and for pointing out my incorrect spelling of Hanson.

    Governor Walker made a strong prediction (250k jobs net new jobs during his first term.) about expansionary austerity. Yet, Wisconsin did not expand compared to the baseline of the US. If you can provide a graph (which controls for state specific fixed effects) which supports your assertion ‘Wisconsin is doing better than MN’ I would be pleased to see it. Please include the beginning of Mr. Walker’s term (2011) up to July 2014.

  25. Emery:

    Instead of arguing graphs why can’t you admit that 2,900 is less than 154,000 which means that Wisconsin is doing better than Minnesota. That is the best indicator to show the trend of who will be doing better the next four years.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  26. Honestly, Emery, can’t you just admit that you stepped in it, and that your source actually documents that Wisconsin is doing pretty darned good compared to Minnesota this year? Next time, instead of parroting the abstract, try reading the d*** article and figure out what it says.

  27. As a non-native Minnesotan, I can understand why Wisconsin would be the state Minnesota Democrats would want compare to economically. Wisconsin is the #2 manufacturing based economy while Minnesota isn’t in the top 10. With it’s more service (retail, data processing, insurance), commodity processing and medical technology oriented economy I’m not certain what state Minnesota would be best to compare to due to the fact that Minnesota has a nicely diversified economy.
    I would think Wisconsin’s economy is more comparable to it’s Rust Belt neighbors, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.
    PS: If UW Professor Menzie Chinn had a bigger hard on for Scott Walker, my computers pr0n filter would restrict my ability to click through. One would think a person who has seen it all and understands much of what he has seen based on their writings here might take into account that a Wisconsin state employee might have a tendency to highlight numbers not favorable to Walker.
    Also, I get a kick out of Chinn frequently noting that Walker will fall far short of his 250,000 jobs promise. Wonder if he holds President Obama to the same standard on his “Obamacare will save the average family $2,500” promise?

  28. Emery, your foundering ya dimwit. Time for a different approach. Try this: “Mmmm shit tacos are my favorite!”

  29. Here are snapshots of employment in the two states from the BLS:

    The states are near twins. Wisconsin has done a bit worse in manufacturing than Minnesota, as far as employment goes, and Wisconsin has done better on forestry and mining jobs. Both have seen their unemployment improve about the same amount in the last year. There is nothing on the BLS page that would enable anyone to identify WI as being led by a GOP governor and legislature, and Minnesota as being led by a DFL governor and legislature — at least not by looking at the last twelve month’s worth of numbers.

  30. Seflores:
    Yes, Chinn has an opinion about Governor Walker’s policies. Although it’s positive news that WI had good July (job) numbers as Mr. Hanson pointed out. The fact remains, it’s only one month of positive growth over the last 3.5 years.

    If you read this:

    It makes many of the same points about the WI economy as you do.

    I agree that Walker has it about right when it comes to public sector unions and pensions. What is really required is that the cost of pensions or other derived benefits be charged to current tax payers, and not be deferred to the future. The cost of teachers, police and other public sector workers needs to be fully accounted for and not hidden from the tax payer. Tax payers will then be able to make political decisions in light of the true cost of such services.

    Back to Chinn: Implications of Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Wisconsin Edition

  31. “What is really required is that the cost of pensions or other derived benefits be charged to current tax payers, and not be deferred to the future.”
    The only way to do this would be to put them all in 401k’s. In many cases, people in the pipeline would need to be payed a huge sum of money to get them into a 401k, and of course current retirees are untouchable.

  32. Emery:

    Which month out of the last six we are talking about did WI out perform MN? Which five months did MN out perform WI?

    It is impossible unless you lay out the data when WI this year has gained over 150,000 jobs (that averages 25,000 per month by the way) while MN has averaged based on 2,900 is 483 per month for WI to be better for only one month! It looks like unless there was a fluke month WI has out performed MN all six months.

    I guess you just can’t escape telling lies!

    How about you type “Scott Walker is doing better for Wisconsin than Mark Dayton is doing for Minnesota.”

    That’s the truth!

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  33. Mr. Hanson:
    Thank you for your thoughtful but intellectually dishonest rely. I am waiting for you produce a chart that supports your ‘personal opinion’. Facts are a tricky thing.

  34. Emery:

    I went to DWD just like you asked us to do. So why won’t you acknowledge that?

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  35. That website is a joke, Emery. Chinn seriously thinks that you can compare Cali and Kansas and demostrate a causal relationship between the increase in the derivative of non-farm employment and ALEC-friendly or unfriendly policies? Seriously?

  36. California unemployment went from 9% to 7.4% between 2013 and 2014.
    Kansas unemployment went from 5.6% to 4.9%.
    Chinn blames the lousy economy of Kansas on its ALEC-friendly policies, and the zippy economy of Cali on its high-tax, high regulation environment. Good God. No wonder Chinn wants you to look at the derivative rather than the simple unemployment rate.
    California had more room to improve than Kansas. It had the largest marginal gain to make, going from 9% to 7.4% is easy compared with going from 5.6% to 4.0%.
    Chinn could get a job doing ‘research’ for Krugman.
    Seriously, Emery — you don’t give the econbrowser blog any credence, do you?

  37. Emery:

    Since you love graphs let me try to create one that makes the point I have been trying to make and you have ignored. For the unprofessional look of the graph, but this makes the point loud and clear which you have been trying to ignore.

    Jobs created 2014




    DEC 2013 JUNE 2014

  38. “Hi, I’m Menzie Chinn Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and now I will demonstrate that the high-tax state of California, unemployment rate of 7.4% is actually a better place to look for work than ALEC-friendly Kansas, unemployment rate 4.9%, by using the second derivative of the number of non-farm employees.”

  39. (Not) The Leader of the Pack: Wisconsin and Her Neighbors

    I don’t know about that PM. Alec is a red herring as far as I’m concerned. We’ve seen a lot of economic ideas come and go over the last 100 years, from Communism and Socialism to Supply side economics. In each case, politicians appropriated and misused an economic idea or name. If you’ve not studied or read widely on the topic, economics seems to be fad-prone, capricious, and polarized. You have to get past a lot of politics before you realize that Keynes and Friedman actually agreed on quite a lot.

  40. Emery:

    You just don’t want to admit that you’re wrong.

    Lets be honest by having you answer the following questions:

    One, has Wisconsin according to your own source grown over 150,000 jobs this year? That is a yes or no answer!

    Two, has Minnesota according their own data grown less than 5,000 jobs this year? That is a yes or no answer!

    Three, since 150,000 is a lot great than 5,000 doesn’t that show Wisconsin (regardless of what has happened in the past) is now doing much better than Minnesota?

    And four, since WI is now doing a whole let better than MN wasn’t your first post wrong?

    It’s not that complicated unless you don’t want to admit that you’re wrong which you are!

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  41. The moderator must still be wiping cheese curds from his t-shirt…. I apologies in advance for the double post.

    (Not) The Leader of the Pack: Wisconsin and Her Neighbors

    I don’t know about that PM. Alec is a red herring as far as I’m concerned. We’ve seen a lot of economic ideas come and go over the last 100 years, from Communism and Soci@lism to Supply side economics. In each case, politicians appropriated and misused an economic idea or name. If you’ve not studied or read widely on the topic, economics seems to be fad-prone, capricious, and polarized. You have to get past a lot of politics before you realize that Keynes and Friedman actually agreed on quite a lot.

  42. Emery,

    You actually reiterated a point I made several weeks ago; MN HAS been outperforming Wisconsin. Since the late nineties. Through changes in State-House control on both sides of the Saint Croix.

    Of course, the context – WI’s economy has been and is tied to manufacturing, and MN’s is heavily into Healthcare/Insurance and Fiserve. No way that would be imbalanced these days, would it?

  43. Emery:

    How come you can’t answer yes Wisconsin has grown 150,000 plus jobs this year?

    How come you can’t answer yes Minnesota has grown less than 5,000 jobs this year?

    How come you can’t admit that in 2014 (lets set aside all the earlier years) that Wisconsin is doing better than Minnesota?

    How come you can’t admit that in 2015 that means Wisconsin could still be doing better than Minnesota?

    How come since you want to say that Minnesota has done better in the past you want to ignore the things that the Republicans did to help make Minnesota in better shape than Wisconsin? Things which in 2014 Dayton and the Democrats are reversing and Walker is improving the job situation in Wisconsin because he is doing opposite policies?

    It’s because you don’t want to admit the truth! You’re afraid of the truth!!

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.