Too Close To Call

The latest Rasmussen Poll confirms what many of us conservatives have suspected; the gubernatorial race is way too close to call:

Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer are still in a virtual tie in Minnesota’s gubernatorial contest.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Dayton picking up 40% of the vote, while Emmer draws support from 38%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner remains a distant third with 15%. One percent (1%) prefer a different candidate, and five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

The cross-tabs are starkly divided; among people who think the economy is improving, Dayton wins a huge plurality of bobbleheaded “voters”; Emmer prevails among realists.

There’s a nod in the polling toward Minnesota’s wierd tradition of giving hapless third-party candidates who don’t wear feather boas way more credence than they deserve in its methodology:

In the Minnesota governor’s race, Rasmussen Reports has made a decision not to use our traditional leaners model. Normally, that model shows support falling off for a third-party candidate. However, in Minnesota, third-party candidates often defy that trend, and a look at the initial preference data suggests that may be happening this year.

And I suspect the leaners will give Emmer another point or two.  We’ll see.

One thing’s for sure; looking at the favorable/unfavorable numbers…:

Emmer is viewed favorably by 46% of Minnesota voters and unfavorably by 48%, including 19% Very Favorable and 31% Very Unfavorable.

For Dayton, favorables are 50% and unfavorables 47%. This includes 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of him and 35% with a Very Unfavorable one.

…I guess the Dayton Family investment in “Alliance for a Better Minnesota”‘ smear campaign was money well spent, at least in the short term.

Read the whole thing.

But that may not be the last polling news we see today.  Just saying.  Stay tuned to SITD.

56 thoughts on “Too Close To Call

  1. The cross-tabs are starkly divided; among people who think the economy is improving, Dayton wins a huge plurality of bobbleheaded “voters”

    These would be public-sector employees.

  2. “For Dayton, favorables are 50%”

    Who are these dumb fucks?

    //’Scuse my French.

  3. “F*ck” is, technically, Middle English, from various Anglo-Saxon antecedents.

    It’s a word that survived the Norman conquests, topping its Norman/Frankish/French equivalent, “De’Effeler”.

  4. Here, let me fix this for you:

    The outlier RepublicanMussen Poll confirms that even polls with a strong conservative bias can’t manufacture a lead for the DOA Emmer.

    There, glad to help!

  5. polls with a strong conservative bias

    There goes Mr. “Centrist”, repeating DFL chanting points again. You and Dog Gone need to put down the DFL bong for a while.

    The Ras has no “strong conservative bias”; they were among the more accurate polls in ’08.

    The American people are showing a “strong conservative bias” this cycle. Measuring that accurately isn’t “bias”.

    manufacture a lead

    They manufactured a false one for Dayton. The leaner screen likely would have swapped the numbers.

  6. In a world where you, a far right Tea Partier claims to be a ‘Center-Right’ Republican, I can see how you can confuse what main stream centrism is.

    Carry on toying with your ignorant minions . . . I know how you love to sit back and laugh as they hover around the feeding dish waiting for your latest morsel.

    I may just vote for Emmer out of spite, since he’s so far back it won’t matter.

  7. far right Tea Partier

    Do you think that if you say it three times, it become true?

    main stream centrism

    Apparently you believe it does.

  8. Tell ya’ what, flasher.

    If my kid was in the military, I damned sure want a bunch of weak kneed liberals running anything, especially a brain addled former peacenik like Dayton. If he and his ilk had their way, Alliant Tech would be disbanded, jobs and the safety of our military be damned. After all, they aren’t the ones stopping bullets in the field – they are/were freakin’ cowards, figuring out how to get out of serving!

    That type of utter stupidity is what cost Humpme, Moondale and McGovern their respective careers – we combat veteran’s have a long memory!

  9. “your ignorant minions”

    Isn’t that a cut of steak? Help me Mitch. I’m to stoopid to know.

  10. “Do you think that if you say it three times, it become true?”

    Nope, I only have to say it once because it is true, you have to post on it repeatedly, every day, non stop for fear rational thought might seep in and show you the truth. It’s OK, you gotta job to do, I understand.

  11. XANDER: Buffy is not going to be happy about this.

    (cut to later, Buffy very amused)

    BUFFY: Harmony … (laughing) Harmony has minions?

    XANDER: Yeah, that was pretty much my reaction.

    BUFFY: I’m sorry, I’m sorry. (Clear throat and stops laughing) It’s just … Harmony has minions! (Starts laughing again)

    XANDER: And Ruffles have ridges.

  12. The outlier RepublicanMussen Poll
    Flash, I am surprised you haven’t sunk to “teabagger” yet. I will continue to state, for the record, that “main stream centrism” is A) mad as hell, B) suffering from debilitating unemployment, C) looking at a $13 trillion federal debt being piled on the heads of their children, and D) putting the blame right where it belongs, on the Democrat/Socialist party.
    Good luck, comrade Flash.

  13. Aaaaand that answers my question.

    ROTFLMAO. Best part of that, Foot, is that your target hasn’t got a clue there is a dart sticking out of his forehead right now.

    Moonbats for 20 Alex

    Here, let me fix this for you

    What is the last thing a moonbat hears as the brain vacuum is inserted into it’s ear?

  14. A) mad as hell,
    As am I

    B) suffering from debilitating unemployment
    Thanks to the failed and flawed policies of the prior administrati0n and the 6 years they devastated the economy to dole out gifts to the rich

    C) looking at a $13 trillion federal debt being piled on the heads of their children
    Thanks partly to tax cuts while defecit spending on a war

    D) putting the blame right where it belongs, on the Democratic party.
    We’ll see, seems the tide is turning as the electorate is reminded of history.

    Seems a little over 2 years ago we were hemorrhaging jobs in the hundreds of thousand, almost 600,000 alone in President Bush’s last month. And now with multi consecutive months of private sector job CREATION, 64,000 this past month alone is a far cry from before this administration took office. Significant job losses are being seen only in the public sectors, almost 160,000 this past month. Are you saying those jobs would be saved under the small government slash and burn policies of the Tea Party Movement. Isn’t wathcing governement get cmaller by watching public sector jobs dissapear a good thing

  15. I only have to say it once because it is true

    If you only have to say it once, then you would have let your appearance yesterday speak for itself. Yet here you are again.

    I can only assume you’re not quite as confident of the prospects of Ole Savior-With-A-Trust-Fund as you purport to be.

  16. From PJTV poll.

    Given your current knowledge of the Tea Party Movement and their positions on the issues, would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the Tea Party Movement?

    26.97% Strongly support
    29.37% Somewhat support
    10.06% Somewhat oppose
    27.24% Strongly oppose
    6.36% Not sure

    Far right indeed.

  17. Ya know, ya never really realize just how much stupid your average moonbat hauls around in their empty heads until they dump the whole brainpan in your blog.

  18. Thanks to the failed and flawed policies of the prior administrati0n and the 6 years they devastated the economy to dole out gifts to the rich

    In constant dollars, Federal receipts increased from 2.2 trillion in 2001 to 2.5 trillion in 2008. Do numbers make you dizzy, Flash?
    If you think the problem is taxes are too low you are a moron.

  19. B) suffering from debilitating unemployment
    Thanks to the failed and flawed policies of the prior administrati0n and the 6 years they devastated the economy to dole out gifts to the rich

    Dunno, Flash. 5% unemployment in 2005. They coudln’t have all been rich.

    Thanks partly to tax cuts while defecit spending on a war

    Nope. The deficit was running a tiny fraction of that pace during both the Bush Administration. The One hasn’t stepped up war spending – why, he promised to be out and done, remember (of course you don’t! Because “mainstream centrists” have forgotten ALL of The One’s promises, right?) – so it would have to be all that pesky social spending that has quadrupled the debt. Wouldn’t it?

    We’ll see, seems the tide is turning as the electorate is reminded of history.

    I christen you “Baghdad Flash”.

    Seems a little over 2 years ago we were hemorrhaging jobs in the hundreds of thousand, almost 600,000 alone in President Bush’s last month. And now with multi consecutive months of private sector job CREATION, 64,000 this past month alone is a far cry from before this administration took office.

    A far cry.

    Also fantasy.

    And the “64,000 jobs” is down from August.

    This is going to be the “Obama Double-Dip” before long.

  20. I would have answered somewhat support.

    A poll like this is kind of like polls on the Affordable Health Care Act. Many show large opposition to the ‘Act’, but strong support when specific portions of the act are asked about.

  21. Do you even read those reports, it confirms what I said, 64,000 private sector jobs CREATED!


    Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job
    losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued
    to trend up modestly (+64,000).
    ==

    Private Sector jobs were ADDED and 159,000 Government Jobs Lost for a net LOSS of 95,000 due to Government jobs gone. Isn’t that what you all want, smaller government, less public sector drones.

    Now compare that to, say, January 2009:
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jec_02062009.htm

    “”The labor market continued to weaken dramatically in January. Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 598,000″”

    “January’s sharp drop in employment brings job losses to 3.6 million since
    the start of the recession in December 2007

    Glad I could help

  22. Yes, but the facts aren’t fantasy. What was happening in January 2009
    ==
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jec_02062009.htm

    “”The labor market continued to weaken dramatically in January. Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 598,000″”

    Only Shot in the Onion can spin a 64,000 job creation as worse than a 600,000 job loss. Didn’t anyone tell you that you at least have to keep the garage door open when running your car in that fancy new garage!

  23. I would also like to remind “Baghdad Flash” that the Democrat party has controlled Congress since January of 2007, and approved EVERY SINGLE supplemental appropriation for defecit spending on wars.

    We are not asleep, Flash. Unlike the average Democrat we are not stupid, either. The Center is going to rise.

  24. Only in the fantasy world of Shot in the Onion is a 598,000 job LOSS better than a report showing 64,000 private sector jobs CREATED

    You guys are so far Right if the world was flat, you would be falling off the edge. To you there is no extreme Right, there is the Center, and everything to the left of it. Its all about perspective, maybe you should get some!

    ==
    Keith Hall
    Commissioner
    Bureau of Labor Statistics

    before the
    Joint Economic Committee
    UNITED STATES CONGRESS

    Friday, February 6, 2009

    Madam Chair and Members of the Committee:

    Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and
    unemployment data we released this morning.

    The labor market continued to weaken dramatically in
    January. Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 598,000

  25. “Baghdad Flash” is appropriate, but you’ll always be my favorite moonbat, Flush. Please keep teh stupid coming, I just got popcorn.

  26. Only in the fantasy world of Shot in the Onion is a 598,000 job LOSS better than a report showing 64,000 private sector jobs CREATED

    You’re right!

    Good thing that’s not within a billion miles of what I said!

    64,000 private sector jobs is nowhere near the number needed for a genuine recovery, and as I noted, it’s slowed since August.

    “The Americans are nowhere near Baghdad!”

  27. Moonbat Flush said: “Seems a little over 2 years ago we were hemorrhaging jobs in the hundreds of thousand, almost 600,000 alone in President Bush’s last month.”

    And to prove it, Moonbat Flush provides: “The labor market continued to weaken dramatically in January [of 2009].”

    Hate to be a buzzkill, moonbat Flush, but January of 2009 was Peebo’s first month, not Bush’s last.

    I know, I know…time flies when you’re turning America’s economy into a mirror of Kenya’s.

    Pffft. By all means, do continue! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA!

  28. One thing is for sure, flasher, if by some long shot, your brain dead trust funder gets into the governor’s chair, this state can kiss about 5,000 jobs good bye!

    BTW, why is it OK in your rosy sky world for so many local liberats that would be considered rich by any measure, push tax increases that they will never pay? They only want working stiffs to pay more taxes. You can’t be stupid enough to believe that they aren’t dodging taxes on their money, too? Hell, Mad Man Mark has already been outed and if our media wdidn’t all have their heads up the Demonrat’s asses, more would be exposed as the two faced bastards that they are.

    For instance, the Pohlad family has been screwing their banking customers for years, getting wealthy in the process. They had no problem accepting corporate welfare on the backs of the tax payers for their new stadium.

    Sorry, flasher. I’m done with these idiots and so are more people than you will know, until November 3!

  29. Well, neighbor, it is precisely what you said, and now you back track. You called my claim fantasy, which certainly implies in normal English that my statement was a negative. I just pointed out what the number were, factual public Dept of Labor numbers, and you called them fantasy.

    “”64,000 private sector jobs is nowhere near the number needed for a genuine recovery, and as I noted, it’s slowed since August.””

    Correct, but much better than hundreds of thousands a month in losses. Slow incremental change is far more sustainable than large swaths of forced growth. I was against TARP and both bailouts. But after seeing the success of all three, I am beginning to think maybe they didn’t do enough.

    Shot in the Onion shoots from the hip . . . again!

  30. ““The Americans are nowhere near Baghdad!””

    But the Moonbats liberals have the Governor’s mansion surrounded

    Little Tommy Boy, the President is Inaugurated in Late January, 2/3 of that month Presdient Bush was still in the Oval office. I know constitutional rule of law is a pesky thing for you, but it is what it is. Do you really want to look at December 2008, it wasn’t much better:

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092009.htm
    ==
    Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors.
    ==

    Yeah, those were happy days!

  31. No, Flash, it has nothing to do with what I said. You can keep saying it, but no. Not close.

    There are just as many indictators that we’re heading toward a double-dip recession as there are for a (very very jobless) recovery.

  32. Shot in the Onion shoots from the hip . . . again!

    And hits a bulls eye permanently tattooed onto flash’s forehead.

  33. And I must point out that a 64,000 job “gain” is a tad short of the 100,000 job gain we need every month to even keep up with the new workers entering the job market.
    Baghdad Flash, when you can start boasting six figure increases get back to us. Right now real unemployment (and underemployment) stands at around 17%. Heckuva job, Barry.

  34. I was against TARP and both bailouts. But after seeing the success of all three..

    Actually, TARP is being paid back with interest….’course that was “W”‘s doing.

    Cash for clunkers and porkulous are resounding failures.

    All Clunkered Out
    The dealers may, or may not, get their money.

    “The Transportation Department is ending its “cash for clunkers” program today, but the deadline shouldn’t pass without recording a few economic and political lessons. To wit, the feds can’t even give away money very well.”
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204884404574366664026140786.html

    Stimulus funds went to dead people

    Approximately $18 million worth of stimulus funds went to Americans who are dead, according to report released by the Social Security Administration’s inspector general released Thursday.
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43303.html

    Now This Really Is Stimulus Failure

    Two departments within the city of Los Angeles received $111 million from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. With that money, the departments had expected to save or create 264 jobs. In the end, the total was just 55.
    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/09/now-i-this-i-really-is-stimulus-failure/63177/

    Do you know what day of the week it is, moonbat Flush?

    How about the year, do you know what year it is?

    Pffft. More moonbat teh stupid, please!

  35. Mitch, the links I just provided to provide a template for another “stupid” tattoo for Flush’s forehead are awaiting moderation..we need ’em for the fun in them!

    Meanwhile:

    I was against TARP and both bailouts. But after seeing the success of all three..

    Actually, TARP is being paid back with interest….’course that was “W”’s doing.

    Cash for clunkers and porkulous are resounding Democrat failures.

    All Clunkered Out
    The dealers may, or may not, get their money.

    “The Transportation Department is ending its “cash for clunkers” program today, but the deadline shouldn’t pass without recording a few economic and political lessons. To wit, the feds can’t even give away money very well.”

    Stimulus funds went to dead people

    “Approximately $18 million worth of stimulus funds went to Americans who are dead, according to report released by the Social Security Administration’s inspector general released Thursday”.

    Now This Really Is Stimulus Failure

    “Two departments within the city of Los Angeles received $111 million from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. With that money, the departments had expected to save or create 264 jobs. In the end, the total was just 55.”

    Do you know what day of the week it is, moonbat Flush?

    How about the year, do you know what year it is?

    Pffft. More moonbat teh stupid, please!

  36. Meanwhile, more numbers for flashypants to ponder over. Not that he will grasp the implication. After all, in his mind, 0bama is teh annointed one and beyond reproach. Facts are a beeoch.

    The worst U.S. employment slump since the end of World War II was probably even deeper than currently estimated, giving the economy a larger hurdle to overcome. About 366,000 more jobs may be subtracted from the payroll count for the 12 months through March when the figures are officially updated in early 2011, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Following last year’s 902,000 adjustment, the revision would cap the biggest back-to-back reduction since at least 1979, the first year of available data. (Snip) The revision may mean the worst recession since the 1930s

  37. JPA, since there is no crayon font, you have to make it BIG for Flush to be able to read:

    The worst U.S. employment slump since the end of World War II was probably even deeper than currently estimated, giving the economy a larger hurdle to overcome. About 366,000 more jobs may be subtracted from the payroll count for the 12 months through March when the figures are officially updated in early 2011, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Following last year’s 902,000 adjustment, the revision would cap the biggest back-to-back reduction since at least 1979, the first year of available data. (Snip) The revision may mean the worst recession since the 1930s

    Doesn’t hurt to repeat it a couple times, either..

    The worst U.S. employment slump since the end of World War II was probably even deeper than currently estimated, giving the economy a larger hurdle to overcome.

    The revision may mean the worst recession since the 1930s

    How was that, moonbat Flush?

  38. Say, moonbat Flush?

    Do moonbats float on FAIL because their heads are empty, or is there something else afoot?

    HAHAHA!

  39. Flush- “Thanks to the failed policies of the prior administration and the 6 years they devestated the economy to dole out gifts to the rich.” Uh, Mr. professor, a tax cut is not a “gift”. The government is not giving us anything. It simply means the government takes less of what was ours to begin with. I’ll help you clean up your sentence- “…they devestated the economy to dole out gifts to all taxpayers.” There. All brackets recieved a cut. You are hereby ordered to take economics 101 again.

  40. ““The Americans are nowhere near Baghdad!””

    But the Moonbats liberals have the Governor’s mansion surrounded

    Little Tommy Boy, the President is inaugurated in Late January, 2/3 of that month President Bush was still in the Oval office. I know constitutional rule of law is a pesky thing for you, but it is what it is. Do you really want to look at December 2008, it wasn’t much better:

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092009.htm
    ==
    Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors.
    ==

    Yeah, those were happy days!

  41. I suspect that like all good “centrists” (cough *Fabian socialists* cough) Flash believes that all money belongs to the government that we the People allow to print. And all of our rights also devolve from the government. We know that’s what his master Obama believes.

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